Review request for my portfolio


#61

No wrong in holding financials that too the ones you are holding. Issue is the skewed allocation which might hurt when there is any sector specific events. With Bajaj Finance, it is 10 stocks out of 16 stocks and possibly ~65% PF weightage to financials. Please post your stock wise allocation of your PF for better understanding.

I feel you need not even sell any of your finance stocks now if you are in stock accumulation/PF building stage. You may just add to other stocks in different sectors.

  1. Food based FMCG companies: Britannia, Nestle
  2. Non food based FMCG cos: HUL, Procter and Gamble
  3. Food and non food based FMCG cos: Dabur, ITC
  4. QSR: Jubilant Foodworks, Tata Global Beverages
  5. Consumption: Titan, Page, Relaxo Footwear
  6. Chemicals and allied cos: Pidilite, Asian Paints, PI Industries
  7. Automotive allied cos: MRF, Exide, Wabco, Minda
  8. Healthcare related: Thyrocare, Dr Lal Pathlabs, Poly Medicure
  9. Manpower based: Quess, Teamlease
  10. Travel and leisure: Thomas Cook, Wonderla

I feel it is a bet on India and the wonderful story that might play out over next couple of decades. Of course the above list is an indication only that we can build a robust PF across sectors which might do well across all cycles. You have to do due diligence before acting.


(Yatharth) #62

Thanks.
Allocation.
Allocation to HDFC now is very low

Non-Finance:: 41%

3M (5%), Avenue SuperMart (8%), Symphony (5%), Motherson Sumi (9%), Eicher Motors (12%) Dilip Buildcon (2%) .

Banks :: 37%

Kotak ( 10%) , HDFC Bank ( 10%), RBL(6%), Yes (6%), Bharat Finance(5%) –

NBFC : 22%

NBFC :: Motilal (7%), Edelweiss (7%), Piramal (5%), Bajaj (2%), HDFC (1%)

May look at Britannia, Page, Pidilite. Quess.
Problem with many others is that the matrix that I use is not encouraging for many ( last 3 year profit growth / 3 year price appreciation )


(Yatharth) #63

Off all the above and others, I find only 4 promising and consistent:
Minda/Quess/KEI, if business environment improves, Avanti.
March 2017 was a bad quarter so sudden jump this quarter needs to be calculated on 2 or 3 years basis.
Most above are at a very high PE and low growth rate except Page.
But I know very little and do not understand most of the things - ratios, outlook, balance sheet, cash flow … so


(Peabody) #64

In general Portfolio stocks look good. Few comments:
Dmart for the medium term may be under pressure with promoter diluting stake to reach 75%
Yes bank is good but very volatile and to some extent controversial-could look at Indusind.
If your aim is to attain 25% approx without too much analysis and deep digging- Bajaj Finance, Consumer names like Maruti/Titan should be on the radar. Of Course entry price matters. Please do not get in/out as it will destroy returns unless there is a serious headwind for the industry or company.


(Yatharth) #65

Queries:

  1. Selling a good company (dmart ) very difficult to buy back at right time. Sold page, could not buy.
  2. Yes Bank - Agree. but it is comparatively cheap and has always come back from lows.
  3. Maruti / Titan - Excellent prospects, PE is pushing me back.
  4. But what to sell?

(Yatharth) #66

Titan : 3 years CAGR
Profit growth : 12%
Sales Growth : 9%
Price Appreciation : 36%


(Yatharth) #67
  1. Had gotten out of Symphony, Will look at it once revenue growth is back in a consistent manner. Right now, imho, very expensive. Good stock but I simply do not have patience for falling revenue & profit growth.

  2. Had bought KEI Industries & Minda Industries.

  3. Need to see how Dilip Buildcon, 3M India, Motherson, Piramal results come out.

  4. Sticking to my thesis of increasing profit and revenue with reasonable RoE. One quarter fall is ok but annual slowdown, without any specific temporary reason, is a bit difficult for me to digest.

  5. Will move to balancing core portfolio ( > 5% allocation ) on an annual basis unless there is a major event.

  6. Keep on experimenting with small allocations ( < 5%) as per quarterly results / major events.

  7. While weighted average EPS growth of past as well as current portfolio has been/is > 30%, looking for 12-15% returns on an annual basis to keep my emotions in check.