Review request for my portfolio


(chintri) #41

I think fiem ran up quite a bit, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t get more . At the same time equitas is a very good bet if you have 3 year plus horizon. Same is true for Motilal Oswal. No idea on ultramarine.


(Vivek Gautam) #42

Long time no posts on this wonderful thread. Pl share your experience over last 18 months,additions n deletions to your PF & any other view u may like to share


(Yatharth) #43

Big changes especially in Oct 16-Mar 17. Entered RBL Bank (~300), MOST (~450), Edelweiss, and good Pvt Sector Banks ( HDFC Bank, Bharat Financials, Kotak Mahindra). Bought good amount of Avenue SuperMart on first day at ~570. Sold, Amara Raja, Granules, Sun Pharma, Aurobindo, Repco, PI to have better sleep. Sold Page and Gruh at high recently. Selling Page I think was a mistake.

So DMart, MOST, Edelweiss, HDFC BANK, Kotak and other good pvt banks ensured good , solid, happy 18 months. Eicher & Motherson also performed. Cera & Symphony as usual. Entered Prakash, Piramal, Shree Pushkar, Kokuyo, PSP Projects. Some have been good, some Q4 down. Net net, a good sleep and much better portfolio performance. Will be happy with 10% in FY 2018-19. Expect I will get > 20% in the new FY.
Hope from current levels, RBL/Yes Bank will also do better.

Portfolio RoE > 22%; ROCE > 77, ROIC > 75, weighted profit growth ( YoY as well as quarterly YoY) > 30-35%, Expected weighted eps growth next year > 25%.

Sticking to basics, no experiments next year, if portfolio eps goes up by 25-30%, Stock price will be rewarded sooner or later.


(Yatharth) #44

“It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune, and when you have it, it requires ten times as much skill to keep it.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

So will tinker to make it a very very boring portfolio next FY. Like it was between Oct 2010 to March 2015. Hope to go down to 8-10 stocks and 25%-35% eps growth with best-in-class management.


(Yatharth) #45

Bitter lesson learnt. Good stocks should never be sold if you are fully in equity. Gruh is back > 600. Page 22K+. It is damn difficult emotionally to buy back.


#46

Thanks for posting about your PF. I was curious how you felt about selling GRUH as I remember posting in that thread it was a mistake. Please don’t think I’m right and you’re wrong. Honestly not trying to be arrogant. GRUH may be overvalued after all and can crash anytime. :wink:

I’ve also made mistake in GRUH. I started buying GRUH around 3-4 years back. It was at all time high when I bought and once it kept on moving high, I was not able to buy more as I was anchored to my initial price of Rs 190-200. I think my last fresh purchase in GRUH was more than 2 years back. It is very difficult to buy even with the dividends I receive from GRUH. I think I’m still making mistake.

Investing is hard! But I love investing inspite of committing many mistakes. :slight_smile:


(Yatharth) #47

I should have listened to you and to my heart and bought it back at ~505. After knowing about so many investors, only a very very few can make 7-10 year CAGR in excess of 25-30% on total portfolio. Especially if the size, as well as allocation to equity out of their net-worth is large.

Most of the times, selecting a set of agile and efficient tortoises is better than many a hares running around bushes and getting killed by accidents/predators.

Learning and a lot more to learn.


(Peabody) #48

very well said about hares being killed in accidents.Personally same experience.Stick to your guns and hold on to well known scrips avoiding all noise- 20%+ return should come -IMHO:grinning


(Yatharth) #49

Going in for stability and expecting moderate returns.
Want to watch event once a week or fortnight. Reshuffle only once a quarter.
Planned tenure 3 years.

Revised Portfolio:

3M India
Avenue Supermarts
Indusind Bank
Dilip Buildcon
Edelweiss
Eicher Motors
HDFC
HDFC Bank
Kotak Mahindra
Motherson Sumi
Motilal Oswal
Piramal Enterprises
RBL Bank
Symphony
Yes Bank

Allocations between 5% to 12% per stock.


(Yatharth) #50

Views are invited. Plan to close reshuffle by 31st May. Made many mistakes this year.
Small caps fluctuations not my cup of tea.
Want to give more time to studies than watching quotes and tweets.
So not more than 7 hours for stock related work per week.


( s das) #51

Except yes bank rest looks fabulous. Best is to sell it and get into some fmcg stocks.


(Jaclyn) #52

You had a wonderful portfolio at the beginning of the thread. Now also you have wonderful portfolio. But the only similarity between the two is HDFC Bank & Yes Bank. Do you think there is something to learn from this?


#53

I feel you have a great PF and may do very well over long period of time. My comments:

  1. You are churning your PF a lot which may not be necessary. Please calculate your returns of the PF (the same one) that you initially posted in July 2016 and the returns since July 2016 with all the churn. You may be surprised with the results. :slight_smile:

  2. You can also try having a more diverse PF. Nine out of the 15 stocks are financials. You can consider stocks in other sectors too. In this way, you may increase the number of stocks in your PF if you like.

Couple of requests:

  1. Could you also post individual stock allocations as 5-12% is a fairly large range.
  2. If you don’t mind, can you tell how much dividends that you get as a percentage of your PF value and is it a sizable figure to maybe live off dividends alone?
  3. How long have you been investing and what is the CAGR returns till date?

(Yatharth) #54

I have been OUT and IN of HDFC Bank between April 2015 - June 2017. Huge mistake. Put proceeds in small cap Pharma. Did not lose money but lost the opportunity. Yes Bank is extremely good to buy when it is at lows. Provided one has patience. Earlier, Indusind and HDFC have been the picks in Private Sector Banks, with Yes thrown in now and then, now I believe in a basket of all good 5 Banks, Kotak, HDFC, Yes, Indusind ( Bharat Financial) & RBL.

Coming to your kind query, HDFC is to provide stability & Yes to use the allocation to get rewards. Currently, Yes is the cheapest and sooner or later will catch up. Always avoided ICICI & Axis.


(Yatharth) #55

Thanks for your kind attention to my post.

  1. You are right that churn has reduced my returns and for about 18 months, it was in zero / slightly negative beginning Aug 2015 - Jan 2016.
  2. Last 7+ years of serious investing, returns may be in excess of 25%.
  3. Dividend and small rental income is enough to take care of urban middle segment’s expenses. However, currently my expenses are high. Hope that after 2-3 years it will be subside.

Highly appreciate.


(Rejinoldo) #56

I THINK you should have a serious look at bajaj fin.


(Yatharth) #57

Thanks a lot. Added last week. Somehow I was not convinced about zero interest EMI.
Any other advice?


(Vivek Gautam) #58

What price u bought Bajaj Fin? was it after the latest results? seems as good as cash hold aka HDFC Bank ? What about Edelweiss as a good pick? Its ARC portfolio may gave good returns


(Yatharth) #59

A day before results. It was a mistake to have a bias against Bajaj Finance for so long. It was always in watchlist but I still do not know how they grow eps at 60%. Imho, it is not as good as HDFC Bank. A small deterioration in consumer confidence in economy, uncertainty of stable government in 2019, A loose alliance of regional parties and consequent decisions can make it highly volatile after a year.

There is a clear shift in corporate advances from PSU Banks ( Can not advance at all or not easily) and ICICI ( they are going to focus on retail ); to large private banks. For SME as well as large companies. Imho, Kotak, Yes, HDFCB , Indusind, RBL, Edelweiss, Piramal and many large NBFCs can benefit much beyond current expectations.

The real game is in this major change in large loans and facilities and will happen in less than a year or two.

Shift in retail is also happening but higher profitability from that segment may take time.


(Yatharth) #60

@hitesh @Vivek_6954 @basumallick @drgrudge

SIRs,

Need to plan from the high of this bull market to low of coming bear market. For this may very well happen. Sunil Singhania and many others expect to have a crash in the next 2-4 months lasting 2-3 years. This time, geopolitical, local political, oil prices, failure of PSUs may trigger this ‘crash’ and a reversal may take place only after years.

I personally can hold for 3-5 years.

@drgrudge
For any 2-3 year period, a set of good financials stocks have always beaten any other index. Even if we talk of 1994-1997, 1999-2003 or 2008-2011. You make a mistake of investing in a basket of HDFC, HDFC Bank, Kotak, Gruh, Indusind, Shriram, at the high of the bull market ( Say 1st Jan 2008), hold and then you have to sell at the low of coming bear market (say on 31st Dec 2011), you still get double digit returns compared to -20% in Nifty. Similar stories in earlier bull-bear markets in India. So,

  1. Kindly correct me and advise, I may be missing a lot
  2. Which are the high quality, stable but high returns from other sectors, any specific companies that you may think are likely to perform much better irrespective of indices? Only thing I can think of is FMCG/Consumption that can survive such cycles.

Do need to plan from the high of this bull market to low of coming bear market. Hence the mention.