Would be nice if you could enlighten us as well with your research.
That’s 10 times than my estimate. Would b glad to know rationale . For my rationale you can check the detailed deck I had shared in this thread few months back
Current EPS is around Rs.6. You are saying the EPS will be Rs.300 in 3 years? The assumption for this is a growth of 50% or so? Nothing adds up in this am afraid.
My friend if we can assume 50% qoq growth till eternity, life would be easy. What rationale for qoq 50% growth for next 12 quarters? Market size opportunity, market share, scale up…?? Would suggest to do rework
- After Joining the forum , first message itself is a 20-30 bagger target , with no concrete work to back it up.
- Has spent less than 1 hour in the forum .
There is always huge gap in Allocation and implementation …
But when there is such a large opportunity and almost monopoly in market repro will easily implement the BOD business and will grow at significant CAGR…
People using different words based on their own circumstances but end of the days all are agree with you…
Disc:- 33% of my folio
My views on Repro. The BOD business will grow very quickly, but neither them nor us know how it is going to turn out. This is a new business and we will need to see how mgmt. takes the company forward. My view is that Repro India can scale their BOD business upto around 200-300cr in the next three years, with a 10% net margin they should net around 20-30cr. Add to that the old business wchih I belive can get back to its old levels and post around 20-30cr in net profits. This will lead to a bottom line of around 50-60cr for Repro India. The multiple could be around 25x earnings in 2020. That gives us a valuation of 1250-1500cr. At a valuation of <500cr-600cr which is when many investors got in, it presented us with a high probability of atleast a doubler, in 3 years coupled with a wonderful new and one of a kind business, with a huge moat. Add to that a strong cash cow in the old business. This should give us around a 25% CAGR with limited downside. I think we have to be realistic with our assumptions. The company can deifnately scale to be a market leader should this segment and business work out as planned, which is a call that investors can take in the future and average up. I believe that fair value of this business is around 400-500rs a share. Taking into account future growth opportunties. I think once they markets correct, we will be able to increase our positions with more clarity on the business as well…
Disc: 5% of portfolio.
Can anyone has idea about what they r going to do with Rs.80cr they hav raised thru QIP…?
No idea. But Im hoping its to wipe off debt. Capex is minimal for bod. I know this for a fact. Not more than 10cr for a fresh greenfield set up.
I had a small discussion with Mr. Khera. He said that the funds will be utilised towards upgradation of existing facility and new facility which is coming in Chennai.
But the most advance greenfield setup will required not more than 15cr (for 6000 bpd)…
Is it true they r adding 24000 books per day capacity?
Yes it can happen as they are growing very fast in bod bussiness
I know this space as I have close family operating in it. It does not cost more than 10cr max max. To add the same number as exisitng capactiy. They have had RPT issues, I still have my doubts on mgmt. This 80cr is too much for expansion of bod where there is no working capital and minimal capex. This minimal capex has been said multiple times on concalls if you dont believe me. They can expand bod through internal accruals with ease. Why have they raised this cash? In my opinion they should use it to wipe off debt. I still dont understand why money was raised through diliution. Vijay Kedia seems super bullish on them and he is very stringent when it comes to assessing management. Malabar are also a reputed fund. next two quarters should tell us alot.
When will they declare the results? :-/ waiting eagerly to see the progress in this quarter and to hear the management.
Here is a personal experience, may not be reflective of all their dealings…
I placed an order on amazon for “Quality Investing” on 25th September. First it took Repro over 2 weeks to ship it. When the order was delivered in the package was “Angelic Beats”
Ok, I emailed amazon and they immediately picked up the book for replacement. I have to think it reached Repro quite quickly considering the speed it which amazon delivered and picked up the return. Over a week later, I contacted amazon and asked why has the original book not yet been shipped. They said, usually we have to wait for the verification of the return from supplier but since you are a valuable customer we will process your replacement order today before verification from vendor. So repro had not even been able to confirm a return of a “book” in one week.
Ok, so amazon processed the order for the original book and one more week passes and Repro still shows “processing” . I then cancelled the order. It takes them more than 2 weeks for printing before they process an order. I don’t know what others experiences have been.
They would not be what one might call amazon’s preferred vendor with their speed. I am rethinking all my purchases from amazon and would rather go to a bookstore now. Usually, if my bookstore does not have something in stock that get it for me in less than a week.
Repro has many issues to sort out.
The best I do to track is how their ratings is performing over a period of time in absolute and comparative manner to avoid any kind of sample bias. Not downgrading the issues but in decision making the total population feedback is what matters . Would try to get some sense from management quality and timeliness of delivery and what kind of KPIs they ve. On money raising, would be surprised if they do not repay part of debt as even if they add two extra locations, would asldd max 30 crores,so, can be asked in concall . Not sure if in previous concalls any one asked about equity or debt raising plan and their responseturned out different from reality .
Boarders might want to check the reviews on Amazon:
98% positive in the last 12 months (2574 ratings)
Ok :). Thats funny and you will see why although not very different here’s what I see…
Long time back i ordered one of the book of repro through Amazon. Intent was to see n feel their services n product.
My experience was very good on all counts. Infact i used that book as a sample for showing to so many friends as one book factory concept.
This difference is because they sell books from two different accounts on Amazon as they have clarified before.
13,23,525 results for Repro Books-On-Demand Storefront
5,960 results for Repro Books-on-Demand Storefront
It is important to check the amount of bestseller titles in the above links. Repro is increasing its marketshare in this low-margin category(which it calls Front-end title). This low-margin category is 80% of value in the publishing business. Mid end and low end books are the remaining 20%, where I feel no one would be able to compete with Repro.