This frequent shifting btw scrips -how does it impact compounding ? Second few bets can go wrong? Are you comfortable doing this continuously.I am trying to understand -not a criticism
Good observation.
There are a few stocks that I have traded in last few years. Some trades have been profitable, others have resulted in losses. Overall…the profits have far outstripped the losses.
Profitable trades in last 2-3 years : Goodyear India, Aart Drugs, Aarti Industries, Zydus Wellness, PVR, Huhtamaki PPL, UPL, GSK consumer, Heromoto, Bajaj auto etc.
Loss making trades: Lupin, TGBL, Emami.
There are stocks that I intend to hold for as long as possible and some of which that I have already for > 3-4-5 yrs…
Marico, GCPL, Jyothy Labs, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Dabur India, Britannia industries etc. It is here that I generally dont sell…irrespective of mkt levels. In fact…I have only been adding these stocks when the mkt falls…so the effects of compounding are clearly visible here.
So…thats how its been going.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
6 Likes
@ranvir
GCPL has corrected significantly and trading at PE lower than most FMCG peers.
Would like to know your assessment of the problems GCPL is facing currently in its overseas business. How serious are the issues and can they be overcome in 1-2 quarters?
May be the probability of 15% cagr over long term could shed some light. As such 15% cagr sounds good to me if probability is high.
Hi @Amudha
WRT GCPL…a few quick points…
Correction in GCPL has been substantial and it seems that it is in buying zone. Atleast I think so.
Slowdown in international business ( South America ) due demand slowdown and currency depreciation is here to stay. I dont think its gonna go away…any time soon.
Domestic business ( other products …which includes air freshners, new hand washes and other new launches ) is the real superstar…the same is getting reflected in the numbers as well…is also a structurally long and strong story.
Domestic Business ( soaps ) …i m not too bullish on aggressive top line growth ( because of the nature of products…already high penetration levels ) …but the bottomline can start to surprise in a big way in q4 and q1 next year due appreciable softening in crude derivatives.
Africa and South East Asia business should not be as problematic as LATAM.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
1 Like
Hi…@uservijay
I have done some number crunching in post number 149. If u go thru it, I feel that you may get a lot of answers wrt Maruti Suzuki India.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
I was saying that 15% cagr is not bad and opportunity size is good for Maruti. We have already seen a shift from A segment to B/C segment for first time buyers.
Hi ,
I see that yu have Jyothy Labs since quite some time in ur folio and wud like to know ur thesis and if its playing out.
None of the brands are market leaders in the category except ujaala which is showing a stagnant growth since some time.
What do yu think of it currently and what future holds for it?
Regards
Hi @tarundsingh…
For me JLL has been a steady compounder…@ 14% CAGR for last 5 yrs. For me …thats okay.
Over and above Ujala ( which is not in a fast growing segment ) , JLLs strength comes from EXO+PRIL…which together makes JLLs a clear No 2 in India’s fast growing dish wash market. They are behind VIM ( mkt leader ) by a margin but at the same time far ahead of NO 3 and 4 players. This, to my mind is a huge plus.
Their Bathing soap…MARGO cant be compared in size ( of sales ) to any of the market leaders ( like Lifeboy, Lux, Godrej No 1 etc ) but has sizable presence, is growing and is profitable.
Ujala Crisp and Shine and Ujala Detergent are doing well in kerala and should start to do well in TN as well ( thats a hope ).
Henkomatic has been gaining Mkt share with every passing qtr with its unique positioning ( Lintelligent positioning and Pink colored powder ).
So…thats the theory.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
Disc: I have been adding VIP industries over the last one week. Buying price range - Rs 420 to Rs 440.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
1 Like
Disc:
I ve sold all my two wheeler stocks ( Bajaj, Hero, Eicher ) and converted them into- HDFC ltd, GCPL, JLL, VIP Industries and a starter position in HUL ( its expensive…yes )
I know… I have my foot in my mouth wrt two wheeler stocks.
I had a long hard look at my portfolio and kept asking one question to myself…can these stocks give me hands off 15 % + CAGR for next 5,7,10 yrs…the answer was no.
At best they could have given me a nice trading bounce…which never came ( atleast in case of Hero Moto ).
But the tragedy is …I should have asked this question to myself before buying them. Maybe I got swayed by their comparative undervaluation wrt others.
Lesson learnt - Its far better to buy a great business at a descent price than buying a descent business at a great price.
So…took the plunge.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
6 Likes
Next year if things are restored and volume picks up, people will start buying them. It is very hard to predict market conditions but if we are confident about the company, they will survive even a bad market ! You have sold Bajaj, Hero and Eicher. Does that mean you are worried about market (2 wheeler market) and not individual businesses?
Irony of markets…I was thinking of buying hero or Bajaj…we have many shares in common and similar thought process to some extent…still the markets are such that similar persons can take two different decisions…I am sure had I bought these when you had, I too would have probably sold them as they are really testing patience…
1 Like
Yes…I think there are growth concerns about the whole two wheeler market
( at least in my mind )…that’s why.
Basically… U guessed it right.
@Investor_No_1…good to know that u share a similar philosophy. Will keep exchanging ideas. Cheers.
Regards,
Ranvir
1 Like
The two wheeler market usually grows at less than 10% cagr while PV grows at sub 5% cagr. It has been proved that YoY growth is never a good indicator.
2019 to 2020 will definitely see a dip as BS6 change will make manufacturers ensure sales is less than demand. Last time BS4 change caused inventory buildup. This time they remember it and will keep sales below demand.
1 Like
Sometimes it’s good to buy the second best company in the sector
The leader usually gets complacent
Between Asian paints and Berger, Berger performed better
If you are already best, it’s a struggle to beat your own performance
When you are second best, you can always aim to beat the best
Ofcourse you need to look at other things, quality of management, operations cash flow, debt, capacity unutilised, sector and market direction.
3 Likes
Hi…
Its been a while since I posted on this forum.
Just sharing my latest portfolio ( i ve made some changes in the past 3 months but the core remains the same ). Here it goes -
COMPANY…PORTFOLIO WT…AVG PRICE…AVG HOLDING PERIOD
GCPL…9.8%… 463…> 2.5 YRS
MARICO…8.6%… 176…> 3.5 YRS
NESTLE…5.5%… 9630…< 1 YR
DABUR… …6.5%… 343…> 1.5 YRS
JLL…4.6%… 129…> 3.5 YRS
BRITANNIA… …4.3%…1365…> 3.5 YRS
HUL…5.8%…1685…> 2 MONTHS
TTK PRESTIGE…6.3%… 5300…> 1.5 YRS
VIP INDUSTRIES…3.8%… 470…< 6 MONTHS
CENTURY PLY…2.7%… 217…> 2 YRS
HDFC LTD…16%… 1750…> 1 YR
HDFC BANK…11%…1515…> 1 YR
INDUSIND…7.5%…1645…> 1.5 YRS
MARUTI SUZUKI…4.7%… 7483…> 6 MONTHS
TVS SRICHAKRA…2.9%… 2875…> 1.5 YRS
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
11 Likes
Ranvir,
Its great to see the kind of companies you have in your portfolio. And even better to see the high allocation to the opening batsmen. Essentially it comes across as a private banks/FMCG heavy portolio. All consumption in a nutshell.
I would love to see a couple of fast growth companies even if they sport high PEs.
You seem to have consistent approach to investing and seem to have found a sweet spot in investing in terms of being comfortable with the companies you hold.
7 Likes
I really admire your portfolio…it is on lines of my thinking and I would say better balanced and healthier than mine. In FMCG, presence of HUL and Nestle now balances the homegrown great companies. In finance, you have solid shares only…apart from I dusind on which I cannot comment. Auto is the dark horse again.
Major difference between my and your portfolio remains your absence from insurance space. Any particular reason? I believe we think on similar lines, so asking. Thanks
Also, seems you exited from baja auto or hero? I remember you were either holding or interested in them. Any reason for exit or lack of interest now? Thanks