Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play

Even if they don’t get exemption, their whole capex would not go waste. With expanded capacity, allocation to Rain Industries from the existing import quantity will increase as GPC allocation to different companies will be in proportion to their capacity. Also, they are exploring to procure domestically to fulfill remaining requirements of GPC.

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This article has nothing to do with Rain Industries or am i missing something.

It highlights the special benefits available to SEZ units which Rain Industries can also take advantage of for their upcoming plant.

Earning concall transcript uploaded on BSE

I am sharing very old thread of Rain industries in TED
http://theequitydesk.com/forum/printer_friendly_posts.asp?TID=140

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Check the importance of trend below, graph of small cap commodities:

Notice 44 AGM meeting
http://kfpl.karvy.com/images/2019/8353_RCM/Rain_Industries_Limited-Notice.pdf

Mainly appointment of new independent directors and reappointment of directors
Regards

AR has been uploaded on 9 Apr 2019.

http://www.rain-industries.com/assets/pdf/rain-industries-limited-44th-annual-report-for-financial-year-ended-31-12-2018_20190409110232.pdf

Stock up UC today ?

Kshitij

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looking at technical indicators , this seems to be a decisive breakout. Let us see what pans out next. Has to be some really positive news. Could be govt. decision in their favor.

Delivery on NSE is 23%. could be operator driven than news driven?

23% seems less than the mean percentage, yet we haven’t seen such volumes since last year May when there was a big sell-off. It also has been bottoming out for some time. Like I said before, we have see how it goes from here.

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Quarterly Results Snapshot (Standalone) - Mar '19 - QoQ

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Goodwill (purchased goodwill) on its consol balance sheet is at Rs6132cr, whereas its market cap is ~Rs3500cr. Its current networth (without adjusting for goodwill) is at ~Rs4500cr.

Does this indicate any red flag?

Most of the companies assets are the result of two major acquisitions - CII Carbon (2007) and Rutgers (2012). IMHO, this is not a “red flag”.

Disc: Invested; views biased.

Hello,

I have been digging into the valuation and have not been able to come up with a growth rate for free cash flow. My initial assessment says, company can generate 700 cr of owners earnings on avg but given the 6500 cr debt, I am not sure what kind of growth in owners earnings should I use due to cyclicality of the business. Can someone shed a light on valuation for Rain industries? Also, I read the report which Mohnish pabrai used - it has sum of parts valuation and I am wondering if thats a right way to value highly debt companies. Thanks

The question i have been asking myself is if the promoter has such a great capital allocation capability why has he not been able to reduce the debt? If the business he had bought were such great business why were they all in trouble financially in the first place?

Dont think Promoter is a great capital allocator. The two businesses he acquired in 2007 and 2013 were expensive in the first place. Now that he has streamlined both these assets, he may aim to set up more of specialized chemicals (Advanced Carbon Materials segment). Something that may bear fruits in 5 years. As far as leverage goes, promoter just loves it. His two acquisitions were leveraged buy-outs. He does not intend to pay off debt although he has got it refinanced at 5% vs. 8% in 2016. Now he will just ensure that no further debt is raised, but wont pay off any debts. Capex will continue.

yes, these sum-of-parts is always tricky. In case of Rain, valuation is much more tricky as he has businesses in US, Europe, India, etc. He cant bring that cash back to India (tax inefficient). Its tough to grow existing businesses overseas. Value Cement at Dollar/tonne, Chemicals business and Carbon Business at EV/EBITDA and substract the debt to arrive at a market cap.
However, for cyclicals i feel best way to play is BUY when margins are weak which is the case currently and sell when margins are in the upper range. Jiten sir is an expert in cyclicals. Valuations dont matter much I feel

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So if he keeps doing CAPEX how does he plan to pay of the debt in 2025?