First, very good compilation from many loose dots. (Even I could not have been able do same although in pieces I have commented on threads).
I find no logical poblem in your arguments. The company would exclusively service Hanes for Vietnam plant. In AGM, the company did said that it would not have major impact on Indian operations as it has diverted supply from domestic to exports market. Hence, once Vietnam plant commences, it would resume supply in domestic market.
Only one issue to consider would be Vietnam stake of Premco are 85 %(not sure and based on my memory) and there is one local NRI based out of Vietnam holding balance stake as required under Vietnam regulation.
So the consolidated profit would be lower the extent of stake of outsider.
Find enclosed my view on your concerns:
1) I am also waiting for company announcement about completion of project. We shall get more information at least in AGM, if no update in June results.
2) Shift for Vietnam to India shall marginally negative due to lower profit margin in domestic operations. (This is purely my assumption and not based on any facts to support)
3) Hanes presentation to investor does give regionwise sales breakup. Of total sales of USD 5.1 billion, nearly USD 1.1 billion sales is international sales. The top 5 market after US are France, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada. In view of same, I assume that China may be major supplier but not major consumer of Hanes brand.
You can get full presentation in following link
4) Possible, I believe Premco quality is superior and among trusted supplier for Hanes in Asia Pacific reason. May impact India sales in commodity segment, in which I believe Premco shall have marginal sales. (Again my assumption and no factual data to support this)
5) I think the business is more working capital intensive then capital intensive. We did have in past some discussion about very high ROE on Vietnam project on same thread. You can go though same. Even if we work with you number of Rs 25 Cr sales and 6-8 Cr PAT, (with expected working capital at very 180 days, total capital employed would be Rs 18-20 Cr (Rs 12 for working capital being 50% of sales and Rs 6 Cr Capital infusion). The ROCE would be around 25-30%. These too much premature and very rough estimate, rather guesstimate. However, do see good ROCE/RONW from Vietnam business as well.
Do let me know your view on same as well.