Thanks Hemant & Tony.
Tony,
Can you share your views on current Sector Bullish Percent Chart ?
During recent weeks, most of the sector trends have changed.
Kunal,
The Nifty is at 77,Bank at 100, CNX Auto at 87, FMCG at 67, Pharma at 56, and IT at 30.
So you can see that the only 2 sectors worth looking at are IT and Pharma from the Long Term Point of view. Rest are nearly overbought.
Tony
Hi Tony ,
After the exit polls were out , lot of selling happened in IT ( RS software) and Pharma ( alembic , jb) . It continued post results. It might be early to say but it seems that these stocks bottomed out on Monday. Last two days they seem to be making a comeback.
Was there any technical indicator using which the bottoming out could have been deduced?
Thanks Hemant & Tony.
Tony,
Can you share your views on current Sector Bullish Percent Chart ?
During recent weeks, most of the sector trends have changed.
)----
Thanks Tony
It’s easy to get carried away by market rally and that’s where value investor makes difference.
Identifying quality cyclical is big challenge but identifying value pick is relatively easier.
I am bullish on Pharma and holds nearly 35% sector allocation in mid pharma - Ajanta Pharma, Alembic Pharma and JB Chemical
Kunal
Nani,
If you scroll back a few items in this thread you will find I have written about Bullish Percent Charts. I have also put up the charts which are updated by me. These tell the whole story as to which sector is in play and which is not in flavour.
Please let me know if you are able to find this. Despite having tried you do not get it then, I will try to help you.
Tony
Hi Tony,
Having learnt that Pharma is a sector to be in for long term based on Bullish Percent points , whats your view on Alembic Pharma @240 odd levels. Do you think one can add more at this level or wait for more lower levels based on TA for long term view ??
Regards
Sadip
Sandip,
Let us look at Alembic Pharma on the Point and Figure Charts.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/APLLTD.html
You will notice that the stock had been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms. However, in May 2014, the trend seems to have reversed. Currently, the stock is in the O column on a SELL signal. It now has support at 230-215-195. Below 195 the stock will be weak as it will trade below the BULLISH SUPPORT LINE marked in blue. On the up it has resistance at 255-270-310.
On the candle sticks charts let us see how the stock looks.
http://chartink.com/stocks/aplltd.html
You will observe that the stock is trading very close to the 200 day EMA of 224. This will be an area of very strong support. If it falls below this, then hell will break lose and you can expect much lower levels as indicated above on the Point and Figure charts.
The CCI is in oversold territory but had recovered from -282 to -135. Watch this level carefully. However, a good entry point is at the 200 day EMA of 224.
You will notice that during the last year, the stock has not fallen below the 200 day EMA and should therefore hold. You can begin accumulating between 225-230 levels for the long term.
Tony
Thanks a lot tony for your tireless efforts in helping out others.
Regards
Sandip
Tony,
Cud u give your valued TA on REC, PFCI, Syndicate Bank n LICHF?
Keep up the stupendous good work.
Rgds
Vivek.
Dear Ashwin
Is Vaibhav Global still a buy?
Rgs
Hi Tony,
Sorry , I am not able to find your writeup on bullish percent. Can you please give the page number?
Even I would like to know if there is a write-up for the Bullish Percent indicator… I am actually working on creating one… but if any one has pointers… I can join them
Tony,
Yours view on Polymed at current levels ?
Regards
Sandip
Hi Vivek,
REC: (345)
On the Point and Figure chart the stock made a new high of 380 and has pulled back. It is on a BUY signal and in the X column. Resistance is at 350 and 380 the previous high. Support is at 300 and 265.
On the candle sticks, the stock is trading above all the EMA’s with an upward bias showing bullishness. It has support at 335, 280, 255 and 215. You will notice that the stock has been trading close to its 5 day EMA for a long time and has hardly fallen below it. The RSI is at 83 and the CCI is at 151 sloping downwards. Some more pull back may happen, but overall a strong stock.
Tony
PFC: 308
This chart and the chart of REC look very identical like Siamese twins.
The stock is on a BUY signal and in the X column. It is taking support at 300 the previous double top and then has resistance at 330 the previous high. Support is at 280 and 225.
On the candle sticks, the stock has support at 300- 240-215-170. A good stock trading above all its EMA’s and showing the momentum is on the upside. RSI is at 85 and CCI at 137 sloping downwards indicating some more pull back is expected.
Tony
SYNDICATE BANK: 147
The stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms since March 2014, a good sign. In the X column and on a BUY signal. Support is at 140-134 and 120. Resistance is at 160 the previous high.
On candle sticks, the stock has support at 140-120-110 and 95. RSI is at 81 and CCI at 165 sloping downwards. Expect some profit taking as both the RSI and CCI are in overbought zone. Over all the trend in up.
Tony
LIC HOUSING: 322
After breaking the Bearish Resistance Line at 210, the stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms. It is in the O column and on a BUY signal indicating more Sellers than Buyers. Support is at 300-285 and 255. Resistance is at 350.
On the candle sticks, it is perched on the 5 day EMA where it is taking support at 320. Next support zones are 290-270-235.
Tony
Nani,
I have attached the Bullish Percent Chart which is updated as of yesterday. The reading of the Bullish Percent Chart is very simple.
It is an analysis of how many stocks are on the BUY signal as a percentage to stocks in each sector. As for the BSE index I have chosen the BSE 100. For example, if the reading on the chart shows 86, it means 86 % of the stocks are on a BUY signal.
There are 2 zones in this chart. The 70 % and 30 % zone. If the Bullish Percent chart is showing a reading of anything above 70%, it means the market or sector is overbought and one has to be ready to take a SELL call when the shift takes place from X column to O column.
On the opposite side, anything below 30% indicates that the market or sector is oversold and one should be ready to BUY when the change takes place from the O column to X column.
From the chart you will observe that the Bank Sector is over bought as it is at 100% and so is the BSE 100 which represents the Market is over bought. The Health Sector or Pharma is trending lower and showing it is getting over sold.
Opportunities lie in sectors or when markets are over sold. Being a contrarian is important.
Tony
Bull-chart.xlsx (26.9 KB)
Hi Tony,
One more basic question on technicals:-)
How to read the situation when P&F and CandleStick give different pictures - i.e when the P&F shows clear Bullish trend line with mostly higher highs and lower lows BUT when CandleStick shows oversold? (eg Ajanta Pharma, Adani Ports)
Thanks in advance
Hari
I don’t know if this question is for me. However, Vaibhav has support at 700 and 640. On the CCI it is beginning to enter the over sold territory. For the long term the stock is a good buy.
My views may be biased as I am an investor in this stock.
Tony