Hi Tony,
I think you missed my post requesting you for your view on TA of Poly Medicure at current levels. Awaiting a response from your side & thanking you in advance.
Sandip
Sandip,
I surely did not miss your request, but was busy and hence could not find the time to reply.
POLY MEDICURE: 429
The stock is on a SELL signal and in the O column indicating more sellers. It earlier broke a strong support at 460 and now has support at 390 and then at 380. If it breaks the latter support, then it can fall even faster as it will be below the Bullish Support Line. On the up side it has resistance at 440-460 and 510.
On the candle sticks, the stock is presently below the 5-25 and 50 day EMA. It has support at the 200 day EMA at 374 which is a very strong support. The RSI is at 36 and CCI at -202 which is in the over sold zone. The stock should find support at 390-370 level and then begin its upward journey. Lets watch this level carefully.
Tony
Hari,
The Bullish Support Line shows the Long term trend of the stock like the stock trading above the 200 day EMA. During the long term trend which is upward, there will be occasions when the stocks will move down and up. It does not mean the stock is oversold, but a pull back is happening on its journey upwards. Ajanta is not oversold but has pulled back from its higher levels.
On the candle stick charts the oversold level is seen when the stock trades below 30 on the RSI and below -100 on the CCI. These are times when one should buy a strong stock as it will take support when the selling pressure gets exhausted.
Tony
technicals
Hi Tony,
At the outset, many thanks for the diligence and yeoman work you do in patiently responding to all the queries and sharing your insights.
As a complete newbie to TA, i find P&F (from a few initial threads that i gleaned over) refreshingly simple. To delve deeper, apart from the knowledge base you have shared here, which book/s would you recommend? (Point & Figure Charting: The Essential Application for Forecasting and Tracking Market Prices by Thomas Dorsey?)
Thanks in advance
Manish
Appreciate if you could share your insights on Thomas Cook and Vardhman Textiles
Manish,
It’s my pleasure to share whatever I know on Technicals. The book you referred to above by Thomas Dorsey is the best around. All my learning is from that book. Very simple and easy to understand. Do write to me on my mail and I will help you further in your journey.
THOMAS COOK: 93.80
The stock made a double bottom at 90 and is currently in the O column on a SELL signal. It is taking support at 90. The next support is at 80. On the upside it has resistance at 102 and 108.
On the candle sticks, it has support at 92 and 80. The latter is the 200 day EMA and hence a very strong support zone. The RSI is at 58 and CCI at -15 but trending upwards, and hence chances of the stock bouncing back are bright. It has resistance at 94 and then at 102 and 108.
Tony
Vardhaman Textiles: 364
The stock made a double top at 360 and touched 380 after which it made a PULL back. It is in the X column and on a BUY signal. The next resistance is at 420.It has support at 360-330-300. If the stock trades below the BULLISH support line (blue) it will turn weak.
On the candle stick, the stock is trading above all EMA. The stock gave a break out after the 5 day EMA cut the 25-50 and 200 day EMA from below on 21st May. This is a BULLISH sign. One can expect the stock to touch 420 in the coming days. The RSI is at 73 and CCI at 300 which is trending lower showing that profit booking is happening in the overbought zone. However, the long term trend is up.
TONY
Many thanks Tony. Greatly appreciate it. Ordering the book and will be in touch via email.
Its been very long since I wrote any updates. So I thought of putting up an update on our favourite stock Kaveri Seeds.
Today the stock closed at Rs, 630. Click on link below to see chart.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/KSCL.html
On the Point and Figure chart the stock is in the O column indicating more Sellers than Buyers. It now has support at 580 and then at 510. Below 500 the stock will turn weak as it will trade below the Bullish Support Line indicated by blue line. On the up side the stock has resistance at 680 and thereafter it can make a new high.
On the candle stick charts:
http://chartink.com/stocks/kscl.html
The stock has support at 620-618 being the 25 and 50 day EMA. The stock should take support at these levels and move up. The CCI yesterday was -32 and today is -38 showing some more weakness. However it is a good level to buy into the stock as it has support at 620.
The RSI is at 44 and showing signs of moving up. Start pyramid buying eg. 50 at 630, 100 at 620, 200 at 618.
On the Bollinger bands the levels are at 604 and 680 on the higher side. It will meet some resistance at 642 which is the 20 day moving average on the Bollinger Bands.
Tony
Dear Tony request your view on the following stocks [tech + fundamental]
IRB infra Simplex infra
NCC KNR Constructions
also, If you want to buy one stock from steel , infra sector which one will be your choice
Thankyou
RK
Hi Tony,
I have recently bought the book on PnF by PD and have read the initial couple of chapters. Trying to put my views and observations from the chart of ITC Ltd.( Source Chartink)
1). Chart shows rising bottom and tops.
2.Immediate strong support at 320.
3). Immediate strong resistance at 350.
4). March onwards the stock has been hovering around current levels of 330-340
5). The bullish support line will be violated if it trades below 320.
-Overall the market is very bullish
-The FmCg sector relative bullishness I am not am to analyze. Where can I do this? Overall the sector seems to be laggard in the recent months and as it is far from its 52 week high and the bse sense is at all time highs.
)- The stock in question is fundamentally strong
And with future potential.
)- Upon doing above basic analysis, I think itâs seems to me that Long call can be taken on the stock for short term of say 1-3 months.
Please give your feedback on my above analysis and advise your readings of ITC Ltd as well.
Dear Rk,
My basic analysis of IRB. Tony sir, please point out my errors, if any and give out your observations from the charts
PNF
1). Stock has given double top buy signal after breaking 215.
2). This immediately was followed by double bottom sell signal after violation @190.
3). The stock has then showed reversal is trading at @204 levels. The chart looks like it will form a broadening top formation.
Verdict - good level to buy 50% qty at around @ 204 levels with exit for stock if it goes below @184.
Fundamentally - I see a rise in Interest outgo at the same time not very impressive PAT growth.
Simplex Infrastructure
PNF
1). Chart in O column and giving buy Signal though. It’s showing higher tops and rising bottoms, which is a bullish sign.
2). Above 300 is good level to buy
3). Support at @300 , @285 and then @240
4). Resistance @350 above which it will make a new high.
Verdict - Can buy above @ 300 and Sl @285.
Fundamentally - The companies growth has decreased - flat when comparing results of current year with FY13-FY12. Main reason being interest out go and inability to increase Sales.
NCC
PNF.
1). Stock is in the O column and giving sell signal.
2). Resistance is at 82
3). Support @ 66
4). Stock might have to consolidate between 78-68 range for it have chance of moving up.
Verdict - Wait and watch before buying as downside chances seem more and upside looks limited in the short term.
Fundamentally - Low promoter holding and high no of pledged shares and liabilities. From the point of view of value investor these are discouraging.
KNR Construction
PNF
1). Currently in O column and having buy signal
2). Resistance @220
3). Support @200
4). Below @180 will give sell signal
Verdict - Buy at current levels or above 220 with exit below 180
Fundamentally - The promoter holding has increased from 71 percent to 74 percent. Eps has increased YOY. Looks like a company worth researching deeper. With the new governments emphasis on fast development and improved confidence of higher growth prospects, the current scenario of sluggishnes. In operations , slow execution and project delays and closure faced by most infra companies may soon become a thing of the past.
- Above opinions are my own and please do your own research.
Thanks for your support , Dhaval for my convenience putting the numbers side by side
| company | entry | exit/SL | resistance |
| Simplex | 300 | 285/240 | 350 |
| NCC | WnW | 66 | 82 |
| KNR | WnW | 200/180 | 220 |
| IRB | 204 | 184 |
and please don't call him sir even if he deserves it , Just call him tony
Hello RK,
I must tell you honestly that I was unable to attend to your query earlier, as I was in the midst of shifting my residence and family. Just try to bear with me for the delays. To the best of my abilities I will reply to each of your queries as time permits me to do.
As for Infrastructure sector, I am not an investor in this sector for the huge capital expenditure it has to incur and being cyclical in nature. So I will be of no use on the fundamental side. This blog keeps giving up good gems to remain invested in, so my advice is to do your own reading and analysis and invest accordingly.
IRB INFRA (206)
The stock gave a SELL signal at 185 and reversed. Now it is in the X column indicating more BUYERS than SELLERS. It has resistance at 220 the previous high. It has support at 185 and then at 136.
On the candle stick chart,the stock is close to the 5 day EMA of 205 where it will get some support. Next support levels are at 193-142-120.
Tony
Dear
Simplex Infra (307)
The stock made a new high of 350 and currently is on a pull back. It now has support at 300-280 and 245. It has resistance at its previous high of 350. Currently the stock is in the O column indicating more Sellers and can reach lower levels.
On the candle sticks chart the stock should find support at 285 the 25 day EMA and then at 190 and 144. The RSI is at 66 and CCI at 39 both on the decline. This indicates some more lower levels from here.
Tony
NCC (72)
The stock is on a SELL signal and in the O column. The stock has support at 66-64. Resistance is at 72-78-82 and 88. The stock has been making lower tops and lower bottoms after touching its high of 88.
On the candle sticks, the stock finds support at 72 the 25 day EMA and then at 54 and 43. The CCI is in oversold zone and moving upwards. This shows the stock can move up from here. The RSI too is moving upwards. The stock can face resistance at 75 and then at 78 levels.
Tony
1 Like
KNR CONSTRUCTIONS (211)
The stock is on a BUY signal and in the X column. It has resistance at 225 and then can make a new high. However, in recent days it has been on a pull back after making a new high where profit booking has taken place. It has support at 205-200-195 and 180.
It is in a strong uptrend making higher tops and higher bottoms consistently. A very strong stock trading above its Bullish Support Line.
Currently trading above all the Moving Averages with the RSI and CCI both in over bought zone at 76 and 100 respectively. The stock should take support at 205 and start moving up once again. Overall a good chart.
Tony
Thank you TONY for all your HELP , in giving reply to every query in this forum.
request to give your view on the following when ever time permits you to do so
shifting mayur uniq to Rallis.
and Shilpa medicare.