Sakaat points Venkatesh ! Glad to see really forward looking thoughts here and not the current favorites being part of 20-year portfolios with the assumption that they will continue to prosper as they have thus far. You are right that Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors will unlikely go out of business in next 20 years, but what if the disruption comes not from another auto technology, but from Rapid Mass transport? Namma Metro has already caused at least a few of my acquaintances to postpone, or cancel car upgrade plans. What if the aerial transportation, or rent-a-bike for last mile solves the transportation problem? From a 20 year perspective, I’d bet MRF which is the auto equivalent of selling shovels to the India gold ( car) rush! Tyres or wheels have been around for a few millenia and while materials might change, the basic circular motion is here to stay for next 20 years! Any shift in passenger commute preferences would hit Maruti harder than say a M&M or Tata which has CVs, Defence portfolio. Tata of course runs the Jaguar stable, which is altogether a new variable and panders to a different set of customers.
On banks, yes, disruption is upon us at least in terms of payment and intermediaries. Deposits and disbursals are yet to see that, but those will follow too. Bank of America has recognized the threat of cryptocurrency in its filings:
“[T]he widespread adoption of new technologies, including internet services, cryptocurrencies and payment systems, could require substantial expenditures to modify or adapt our existing products and services,” the bank said.
Perhaps I missed it, but I did not read an equivalent statement in HDFC Bank AR. Bank of America has one of the highest patents filed in Crypto-currency, so one can be sure that BoA is making attempts to survive and thrive in the new planet Crypton.
Interestingly, it appears not many people seemed to believe Insurance is something to thrive in next 20 years. As and when such opportunities are available, Education for profit may present opportunities for long term investment as well when such institutions go public.