PC Jewellers


(LTInvestor) #396

Given that my investment is in the money, just doing some more research whether to hold on or not.

So it looks like this gifting shares is not new to them. I checked since 2017 and Krishna Devi (PC Chand’s wife) has previously in early and mid 2017 gifted shares. (33L + 14L = 47L) on two occasions. There maybe more but not searched intensively. And one of them was before the bonus (so adjusted nearly 61L shares now).

Interestingly on Aug 29 report, someone called Shivani Gupta (looks like PC Chand Daughter-in-law) came on the SHP with 1.38% holding (52L shares). She has since dropped off the list meaning she has sold the shares below 1%. Maybe the recent transfer is also to her.

14L gift

33L gift

Shivani Gupta
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpPublicShareholder.aspx?scripcd=534809&qtrid=94.02&QtrName=


(Radiozammy) #398

@LTInvestor : Thanks for digging in. It seems more of a timing mis-match between fidelity selling and the gifting of shares and the only news available to market was the gifting and hence the speculation( or may i say over-speculation on our part). I am looking forward to the 10th now.

Disc: Invested and holding till 10th and decide based on management’s actions/ commentary


(maheshkumar) #399

140% return in 5 days,understood the meaning of luck this week :blush:

Practical example of positive asymmetric risk reward
https://www.seeitmarket.com/understanding-asymmetric-risk-outsized-investing-returns-13515/

In 2013, $130 billion in stock value was wiped out in a matter of minutes following an AP tweet about an “explosion” that injured Barack Obama. AP said its Twitter account was hacked. Although stock prices recovered shortly thereafter, this instance points to how news on social media can be manipulated to impact high-frequency trading algorithms that rely on text to make investment calls.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/26/can-fake-news-impact-the-stock-market/#60825ba42fac


(Mahendra243) #400
Quantity Traded 18,92,41,116
Deliverable Quantity (gross across client level) 1,35,43,802
% of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity 7.16 %

intraday traders made good money again…


(atul1082) #402

Since the delivery %age is so low,what can be made out of it?Does it mean that only operators are driving the price up movement? Experienced boarders may Pl share their view
Disc:not invested


(shenbal) #403

Yes … operators with very low commitment … so the play is intraday … I recollect noting that the delivery % average is less than 20% … whereas for some solid portfolio stock, the delivery % average is above 50% …

So PCJ can continue to be a good active trading stock versus a portfolio stock.

Even I had added Titan and PCJ to my portfolio (as bullish view on the organised fashion jewelry business) almost on same day … Titan has returned 20% which PCJ eroded so much value (luckily I did not exit at 100 which would have been a 66% mtm for me) … but finally averaged PCJ and exited today at a 5% profit …

Clearly PCJ is not meant for portfolio but for trading … not only operator driven but something more going on in the background … hence wild swing in the stock price …


(suraj jethwani) #404

the Wild Swing in the Stock clearly prove that this is Operator Play.

If you notice the BULK DEALS for PCJ you can see the Amount of Shares Bought and Sold (SAME Day!!)

there is no Buying based on fundamentals of the Stock as there is NO trust with the investors.


(suraj jethwani) #405

one more piece of Bad news for PCJ


(manivannan.g) #406
  • How sure about the trust worthiness of this news that it was recorded in recent days ?

  • No mention of Karol Bagh anywhere.



(suraj jethwani) #407

Hi Mani,

Possibly this video was recorded earlier but it was uploaded today.
Do you suspect A Bear cartel in Action ?


(manivannan.g) #408

For the past few days the scrip is completely driven by operators. It’s almost like a casino. Not sure why SEBI is still sleeping.

image


(Gothamcapital) #409

The top ten shareholders are reputed mutual funds.Who are the operators here?


(shenbal) #410

Check the delivery % … it is very low. So the operators are uncommitted players who enter and exit intraday. A look at the bulk/block deals for PCJ will give you clues as to who could be representing the operators …


(suraj jethwani) #411

Pls. refer to the Porinju’s tweet yesterday, It’s shared in this Forum. This is operator Play leading to unexpected Swings in prices.
That Said, the Swing was more yesterday, it’s visibly less today .


(suraj jethwani) #413

Porinju, At least never misguides about the ideas of Value investing the rationale and why it is important. I still like to hear him talk about how he picks regardless of the Size for e.g. Large/Mid/ Small caps.

As far as their performance is concerned,
90% of ALL the value picks, (i.e. Companies with High potential) have under-performed Since Jan, 2018.

Last thing, Let’s constrain our discussion to PCJ, If you don’t like Porinju there are other places where we can rant about him. :slight_smile:


(shenbal) #415

Titan and PCJ as top two leaders of this segment were my choice of investment. I did not ride the bull wave from 300 levels to 600 levels but entered at 300 levels when the Vakranghee fiasco happened. The logic was that whatever Vakranghee did had no impact on the PCJ business model. And it was available for a 50% discount from the peak.

However, since then, the stock crashed to below 100. And then rose as quickly to 260-270 levels. And all the while the company business mode has not changed a lot. A lot of rumours and confusion and thanks to social media high level of noise on PCJ.

I am invested in Titan and have exited PCJ as I feel that there are red flags behind so much volatility. PCJ may continue to be a trading stock, but not my core portfolio.


(yudiagg) #416

I have still not found any evidence of any wrongdoing by PCJ in any electric or print media… It will good if any boarder shares the hard evidence/facts. Just because the price is going down it does not become a suspect stock and vice versa. We all now that one of the FIIs sold a huge number which was equivalent to the total holding by public. The short sellers took the advantage and pushed the price further down. - this is a part of their business. Later they had to cover their shorts which led to sharp fluctuation in prices - this is also a part of their legitimate business. How does all this result in PCJ being a bad business. Have other MF/FII also sold heavily against delivery - we do not know.


(oracler) #418

Agree, I am also of the same opinion that just because there is allegation does not mean it is true. I added on to PCJ during this down fall.

Some hard concerns I have are:

  1. Why would fidelity exit at a huge loss in this manner? There will be a very good reason.
  2. With several fund houses holding and recommending this stock at twice the price, why would others not buy? Which would have put a floor.
  3. The receivables and days outstanding are way too high. This could be a fundamental concern.

None the less I feel, unless there is a case of fraud which we are unaware of, the current CMP makes a good entry point. They have come a long way by adding so many stores and plan to take the number to 200 which should provide good growth for next few years. I do not intend to tender shares in buy back, but the capitalize on this entry and let it grow for next few years when all this is forgotten.


(oracler) #420

The way I look at that is, just because satyam and few other IT companies ran a scam, we need not paint all IT companies with same brush. So even though Gitanjali ran a fraud, to a great extent Titan and PCJ are immune to that particular fraud.

I feel, these trades of shares by different entities doesn’t impact their underlying business. While I myself am not a customer of Jewellery, as long as the numbers and stores show growth, I feel we can hold on.


(Gothamcapital) #421

One thing i have difficulty in digesting is how Mr Balram garg starts operating one store in 2005 and then goes on rapid expansions.The other problem is the way in which compulsarily convertible preference shares and debentures are allotted.Not to mention it had taken in a good amount of money by ipo.Out of the 3000 crore general reserve,almost 1200 crore is ccp and ccd +ipo money.The way the company is in constant need of cash puts me off.

There are other red flags as well.For example the company gave 299 crore loan to one of its subsidiaries.Why would you give such loans to a private company?What would the shareholders of pc jewellers get from that?I would say Mind you that the company in question is not even 6 years old

Again,this is my personal belief,I may turn out to be proven wrong.But for me this is looks like a cash guzzler.I have not looked deep into the books,but only pointed out the issues that stick out on the surface

Disclosure:
Not invested.