PC Jewellers

(Mahendra243) #352

7% delivery volume on NSE speaks that all played intraday today out of 21 Cr shares traded today…no one really took serious about this…we should watch when it comes out of FNO ban…not sure when though…everyone will be eager to take shorts then…

(atul1082) #353

I know someone who was working at co secretary level in shipping cable and was told how the company siphoned money to make a personal investment out of it in a gulf country

(svasa13) #354

In terms of percentage of delivered is less but quantity wise 1.7Cr shares in both exchanges which is higher than last 2 days.

(atul1082) #355

What can be inferred from this?Just trying to understand

(Cshar) #356

Your analysis has a basis flaw & looks biased. What a person has to do while entering in showrooms of PC Jewellers. Are u trying to say that because stock price is down, people will not enter showrooms & buy jewellery. They own a 3 floor showroom in South ex Delhi, only real state is worth more than 50 cr in Delhi. Gitanjali, vakrangee & Shilpi cables had huge debts on books, comparatively PC Jeweller looks ok for the time being, even auditors are very prestigious. Disclosure, took position in last 3 days, 5% of portfolio.

(atul1082) #357

Auditors do not come to know or don,t come out till the last moment.see vakrangee, so many members HV bn shouting from rooftops, shares falling for last few months but now only auditors seem to be doubting their accounts and their response seem inadequate.what were they doing till date?

(LTInvestor) #358

Given that we are entering the end game of PCJ, I took a stab at what can go wrong on 25th May. Scenarios:

  1. Assuming exports are inflated double, it will not hit EPS by much as PBT is only 108.2 or about Rs1.9 of EPS (taxed at 30%). If true, expect exports numbers to fall substantially on 25th.

  2. Receivables are non-existent as exports are inflated. This will mean they write-off receivables. Liquidity situation but survivable if inventories and cash are real.

  3. Inventories are fake and written-off on 25th. Bad news. Will expect banks to ask back for payables and on demand debt. Stock to tumble, promoters to pledged stock to survive. Insolvency proceedings?

  4. Cash is non-existent. Same situation as 3. Plus it is the cash which is holding up the declining liquidity situation.

Any views on how this can pan out is welcome.

Disc: Invested.

(yudiagg) #359

If Fidelity could err - we are ordinary mortals.

(gneop84) #361

Hi Suraj,
From where could you find out about FMR selling the stock , if it FMR website ?

(suraj jethwani) #362

Hi Gneop84,

Not FMR website, I looked at disclosures , Did some Base calculations based on the Statements in Interviews (e.g. Balram Told selling of about 1 Lakh shares)

Btw, FMR have further reduced their Holding… Now by a total of 2.54 %

(Rohit) #363

Its available on BSE website

(Rohit) #364

38 % up from yesterdays closing and 65-70% up from yesterdays’ lows of 95-96… God knows what is going on in this stock.

(manivannan.g) #365

Yesterday, someone was mentioning in the twitter that they gonna have analyst/investor call yesterday evening. Not sure and I couldn’t verify the claim though.

(LTInvestor) #366

Only thing is if everything comes out good on 25th with no surprises at all. Then no reason for this stock to trade at 10x earnings. Very good chance of going back to 17-18x if not 30x it was getting before. I see 2017E EPS of 15.81 and 2018E EPS of 19.49.

(atul1082) #367

Can any senior boarder decipher pcj and the reasons for such a positive move in the last 2 days?It’s beyond my understanding

(maheshkumar) #368

Added today in morning
4% of pf
Now 5.5%of pf
All stores are real
My friend is a chartered accountant and he says 99% of jewellery companies cook books,as long as they don’t overcook and burn the entire bread ,It’s not a bad investment

PCJ is the second largest player in India
From personal experience I can say undoubtedly their jewellery design is very classy

If the books are cooked will lose 10-100%
But if not a major fraud then I guess I have caught a good candidate for rerating and then a compounder with good dividend yield

With GST ,organised sector will get a boost

(Mahendra243) #369

All Intraday players latched on to this…NSE delivery volumes is 9.9% today out of 18cr shares traded 1.8 taken delivery…we have to see once it comes out of FNO ban

(maheshkumar) #370

But the delivery percentage is around 10% since last 1 week
Whether it’s going up or down delivery Percentage is same
Real que is about undiagnosed fraud (yes or no)
Till that time share price will be like a high swing pendulum
No one knows except the management regarding what’s happening inside
Daal mein kala hain ya poori daal kaali hain or is it a delicious dal fry


(LTInvestor) #372

PCJ prepones buyback meeting to the 10th of May. Get your popcorns ready on Monday.