Good raw data shared by @spatel
Looking at the data , i could organize some thoughts as under
The branded innerwear/leisure wear category led by Page is clearly characterized by the ability to increase prices - which is the main reason for the high return ratios exhibited by Page and others in this sector. The following table illustrates this
||Average yoy growth in price realization
Pricing power in the Page Mens innerwear segment has in fact increased with the passage of time. The recent TTM increase in realization has been Rs 14 per piece in inner wear
I dont see any immediate threat to the pricing power, whether in Mens/Women/ Leisure wear. However, because Women and Leisure are having higher realizations per piece, the % of price increased yoy per piece will be lower. On an average Page increases prices by Rs 2 per piece per quarter across all segments
The effect this has is that it slows down growth rates, as the base realization increases. However, there is no loss in pricing power which continues as before
The other important trend is the unit volume growth. Over time , the % of mens innerwear has come down in the overall revenue compared to women + innerwear. From innerwear contributing to 63% in Q2 2015, it now contributes 56%.
44% now is contributed by Leisure and Womens and it looks that in a few more years this proportion will cross 50%. Ofc when it does that, growth rates will increase.
This is the average yoy in volume over the lookback period
||Average yoy growth in volume
My sense is that mens innerwear volume growth is slowing down however pricing remains robust as ever. The co has a growing additional stream with good volume growth and relatively less pricing power. Overall, i think that the growth moderation is a temporary phenomenon as the underlying math plays out. 18% growth long term growth looks doable to me.
Disc- not invested