@Punit, one miss seems to be in your model is the price hike which page takes every year to compensate for inflation.
In my opinion such companies should be tracked constantly on sales growth. Once the sales growth start tapering, the warning sign appera.
I agree with Raj…Sales Growth is the only parameter for Page.
@Punit: Some observations.
1). Speedo is currently growing at 40% YOY and will continue for some time.
2). Plain volume growth looks low at 16% but the volume mix is changing. Women innerware, bra and leisurewear share is growing. The per piece realization for these categories is much higher than mens innerware
3). Price hikes which will be equal to inflation if not higher can be asumed to be 6-7% for next 10 years.
All in all 10 years view is impossible to predict but we can take 2-3 year view and that is looking positive for Page. I like to put a very simple assumption for Page every time. Page potentially can sell 60 Cr pieces at 200 Rs. per piece sometime in next 8-10 years. In FY14 it sold 10 Cr pieces so it’s 20% volume growth for 10 years. 200 Rs. per piece can happen with womens share growing plus some inflation. That gives us 12000 Cr sales or 10 times current sales in 10 years. Rest of the math is simple. But this is the BIG PICTURE that every hopeful Page investor dreams of 
Disc - Invested and heavily biased
Nikhil - I agree with your observation that volume mix is changing with bra and leisure category growing faster which has higher price realisation, and i haven’t factored that in. I still need to check if the margins stay the same for these categories, and if does then the growth should be higher and faster.
I also agree that Page can realistically have 20% volume growth so based on volume/price mix it can have much higher turnover.
I am looking to start investing in Page by SIP Mode.I have TCS , Lupin , Bajaj Finance , Gruh Finance and Mayur Uniquoters as stocks being invested in SIP mode.
Thanks to all guys here who are putting so important information and simplifying things for investors. I hope i can contribute to this in future.
I want to buy 25 shares of Page in addition but price has run up already and PE of 55 seems expensive. Having said that i know that counter argument is that since growth is healthy one can invest as i am looking at 10+ years horizon if company continues to do well and management is top notch.
Any suggestions by senior boarders who have been tracking company for years will help.
Salil
Would advise caution here : While there is no reason to sell Page now, its isnt even cheap. Would suggest to add only when there are sudden dips.
In my opinion, for someone who is looking at a 10 yearhorizon waiting for dips is not required. Specially witha growing company like page, If it gives a dip of 10%after moving 30%, you wont be happy. And 10% is anywaysirrelevant when you are looking at 10 years.
That being said, no senior would suggest you to add acompany trading at 50+ pe. It has to be your call.Try to answer why you want to add Page and where do yousee it after 10 years.
Disc - Invested and waiting for a dip
Q1 results out(in RS Cr)
Q1 FY15 Q1 FY14 Inc/(Dec)%
Sales 383 309 24
PAT 54 43 26
EPS 49 39 26
Results are ok, not very spectacular, or nothing to write home about, but the long term story is intact, nut the PE of 58 may be a bit too much, upto 45 PE it looks ok, in the short term it may consolidate at these levels, maybe longer than expected. All the growth is already priced in, will wait for earnings to catch up. fy 15 EPS cud be around 180, and fy 16 240.
It looks fully valued in my opinion
disc: Invested
AGM today started with hangama from the share holders who just seems to love it.
If you want to listen it (54 MB)
Putting in some growth rates for earnings of Page Inds for fy 15
25% growth provides eps of 172
30% growth provides eps of 180
35% growth provides eps of 186.
40% growth provides eps of 193.
I think one can expect around 180 per share for fy 15 as a realistic figure.
Based on that, a valuation band of 35 to 40 PE will fetch values of 6300 to 7200 where it seems one can buy aggressively if the prices do come in the above mentioned zone for one reason or the other.
Page : Jockey launches in UAE today
Story behind Move and play - the new core philosophy - “best or nothing”
http://firstbiz.firstpost.com/brands/jockeys-newest-ad-boy-inspired-dance-92474.html
Hitesh and other VPians. Page has been in reverse gear, ever since the Dolat capital report with 6700 target. There seems to be no end to supply as some the DIIs/ MFs seem to be unloading too, along with the promotors too ( hopefully, they have reached that damn 51%). I am a late entrant in this and frankly speaking the general negativity is stifling. What is going on with this stock? Is there juice or Is it following the usual formula? ( when I enter any stock, it normally falls making me the accidental long term investor !,). 180 plus eps, new launches, expanding market. Hmmm. Nothing seems to shake it from the steady fall
Kalyan,
It’s down only ~10% from its recent top, no?
You sound like as if “the sky is falling”…
My suggestion, if you are convinced of the long term story, only then invest. And don’t assume that after you invest, stock will move only in upward direction. So stagger your purchase accordingly.
Besides I think page is too widely covered for a single brokerage report ‘dolat’ to create a negative bias in the stock. There are other factors at play, like the 1. last qtr result 2. Stretched valuation at 8k+ levels etc…
In fact most ppl who follow page, were probably expecting this correction.
Kalyan -
Two suggestions:
1). You should not touch a stock if you are not ready to hold it “intentionally” for 5+ years. In fact Page going down provides an opportunity to buy more. At INR7000, you have an opportunity to enter at based on 30x 2016PE and 23x 2017PE (based on my expected EPS)
2). It is obvious that you chased the stock at higher valuation expecting the run to continue forever.
Am positive that you will make money by “accidentally” becoming a long-term investor. Have faith and sit tight.
The stock price for Page seems to be coming into the zone I mentioned.
This happens with Page very few months and is nothing new. In fact its always a good buying opportunity at these times. I recall earlier after a sharp run up to around 6700-6800 levels, stock price went down to 5700 or so and those who bought aggressively are not sitting pretty.
These reports too will come off and on with various price targets. A single less than expected quarter doesnt affect a great business.
Making it Big: How Page Industries was built
Page's sales in Qty.
| Item/Year | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men's Inner-wear | 61,215,831 | 55,708,509 | 48,590,214 | 41,986,125 | 41,392,077 |
| Bra | 4,066,708 | 2,825,211 | 2,020,410 | 1,425,000 | 1,005,132 |
| Women's Items | 16,067,074 | 14,009,423 | 11,499,955 | 9,258,000 | 7,368,000 |
| Leisure Wear | 19,509,261 | 14,270,443 | 10,969,028 | 8,603,000 | 5,979,674 |
| Factory Seconds | 648,800 | 116,977 | 1,493,905 | 1,438,921 | 1,270,345 |
| Speedo Swimwear | 392,387 | 369,424 | 185,143 | NIL | NIL |
| Total | 101,900,061 | 87,299,987 | 74,758,655 | 62,711,145 | 49,647,228 |
Discuss : 20 marks :)
Hi All,
Page Ind touched all time high of 9875 today. Closed @ 9612 …up 7%. Any news ??
Cotton prices going down should be good news for page and the company’s margins.
