Noida Toll Bridge Co. Ltd. - Limited Downside and Annuity Potential

Stock Opportunities Not-so-Hidden Gems
81

I think it’s a very nice interview:

Apart from some additional info for those tracking, others can also read it to get a nice brief of this interesting movie almost at climax now.

Doesn’t look like all hope is lost for the company.

Let’s see how our highest court takes this to conclusion.

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82

Is that a hint to the expected SC decision? From toll-road operator to solar panel operator :slight_smile:

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83

SC will be ruling on 17th April

Disc: Invested

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84

What’s the update on this?

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Matter listed by SC for 5th July. SC has yet to share CAG report with parties to the case.

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86

Does anyone have access to contents of the CAG report? Apparently, it is with the RONWA and NTBCL management both and the stock has moved up 50% !!! Are they playing blind or seen?

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Could you pls share how did you know the report is with them?
Thx

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Both are parties to the report and Supreme Court has directed that report should be shared. NTBCL has written in the stock exchange announcement that they have received the report. I cannot confirm about the RONWA part - but if someone has connect - they can find out.

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89

RWA’s version:

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90

Company’s response to the exchange

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/82e641c6-ce48-4114-adfe-0cc1a3b1b7cf.pdf

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91

Thanks for sharing. That means NTBCL is yet to recover about Rs. 1900+ crores and hence SC is very likely to pass the judgement in the favour of the company. May be this is the reason for continuous upper circuits in the scrip.

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This part appears to be true, and it should ideally reflect in the residual equity value of the company.

Not necessarily. The CAG audit was required to establish whether the company was gold plating the project or not. Court needs to pass it’s opinion on it. Also, certain clauses in the contract may be questioned and revisited in the SC. Only when the contract is upheld in entirety, shall the equity value be realized. How the valuation would realized is a different question - the toll contract till 2031 would not recover it, which is why there has been talk of the landbank being used for a solar project.

Disclosure: invested.

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93

What the residual equity value is depends on

  • Costs that are disallowed if any ( this will be small in the overall scheme of things and might include things like excessive salary drawn by IL&FS employees - may be 10% of the total project cost)
  • NTBCL has mentioned that they are willing to negotiate the rate of return . So at 15% return (Cost of debt was 12% at the time of signing the project) it works out to around 1200 Cr, which means that the stock value should at least increase 2x to 3x from the current market cap of 300 Cr
    That is enough margin of safety for me to invest in the stock and I have been adding in the last week when there was an opportunity as some mutual fund has decided to exit probably because of their own internal reasons
94

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=ff0d17a0-6a5d-41ef-8fad-ff4f955fe2cd

Billboard space on South Delhi side awarded for 5 years. This is approx 40 large sized billboards and going rate for billboards should be between 5 to 10 lakhs per month ( someone can confirm). That is a revenue of 2 to 4 Cr per month. Will there be any costs of managing these? Need to understand better to ascertain impact on the bottom line - but it is significant given the market cap of the company. This is separate from the project cost to be recovered for the DND toll road.

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95

NTBCL files claim for Rs.7000 Cr compensation in arbitration court.This takes into account 20% IRR and rolled up losses on initial investment about 20 years ago. Current Market cap - 280 Cr

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=f4a13bee-ee14-4837-8e0d-85086052249e

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96

Anyone has any idea why the stock has gone up to 7 Rs?