Please take my disclaimer: Buddy, whatever I type below is not personal. I am only typing to answer to you and hopefully it will be something that will help you or me. Second, You made the effort to make a good post on your thoughts, so I will make this one post to reply. No further communication back and forth. My intent is only kind, but my words are clear, so they will sound harsh, I request for an apology from you in advance. Also, I am a novice, so I don’t know anything.
I am also aware that in some way this post links to the high prices in the Indian stock market, so I think it is fair play to discuss the below since it is not so much about what will happen but about investor phycology which is what leads to high price multiples and whatever else.
Sir, I am sure of the above. I am not sure which stocks will be able to do that. If you know please proceed to buy or hold them. Please also make a new thread and post those stocks and your rationale. Your conviction is yours. Personally, I want things great businesses fairly valued bordering on cheap when I buy them because I am not a genius who can predict 10 years of growth. I can not even accurately predict my company’s sales for the next month, forget next one year, so knowing my very limited knowledge, I will not be able to pay up a high price for growth. I fail in front of your awesome skills.
Sir, this is called prediction. as far as I am concerned then one can also read tarot cards or ask a parrot to come out of a cage and say the same. How do you know sir? Even Mr Puri or Mr Cook will not take such a bet. Your confidence is admirable. Hat’s off.
Sir, this part is called first level thinking. If you know this, and we all know this, then are the people at Apple utter fools? Is the CEO of apple is a chicken who is on the path of known and doomed destruction? Please apply second level thinking.
And this is the part where this fits in nicely with the high prices being paid for mediocre and very average enterprises and the overvaluation we discuss on this thread. I know for a fact when I read all these confident comments that the bear market is still collecting students to teach them a very bitter lesson. You will get your due share if you don’t open your eyes.
Mate, I am only trying to jolt you. So you please think through that you have not only a high level of confidence of 25% CAGR but extremely high overconfidence where you will beat Buffet and many others like him in returns and that too over a long period 10 years. You know not what you are trying to achieve. That road is littered with scary stuff. We fear to tread… where you know who marches on bravely. Yes there are exceptions, and many are on VP, but they are outliers who know they got damn lucky. So if Lady Luck wishes to bless you, I will be very happy for you.
Please I apologize and only hope it will just give you a little to ponder over if you are open to your thesis being challenged. But if you already know everything about the future, then I may have not added any value.
Good wishes my friend.