Manohar's Portfolio


(Manohar T. Patil) #1

Hello, I have put together below portfolio over past 3 yrs with my limited knowledge of businesses. Suggestions from knowledgeable boarders would be highly appreciated to further improve it.

Stock Latest Price Inv. Price Overall Gain % % of current Portfolio Rational for Investing
Srikalahasthi 370.7 215.27 72.2 12% "capacity expansion, attractive valuation
started buying when it was 85"
Aurobindo Pharm 725.3 462.28 56.9 11% "Bought 3 yrs. ago. With premise of pharma growth story.
Not sure about holding it for longer term given pricing
pressure on pharma ind. & rupee appreciation"
MCX India 1,118.75 479.81 133.17 10% Scalable business without proportionate increase in cost
NBCC 216.7 75.36 187.55 10% Monopoly business with high order book visibility
Edelweiss 225.15 58.11 287.45 9% Multiple streams of revenue growth in growing economy. Excellent management
Va Tech Wabag 623.15 584.08 6.69 8% Unique infra play and related to basic needs of human kind. Multi country business.
NOCIL 139.05 75.87 83.27 7% "Acquired about 8 months ago seeing good consistent growth in past quarters and
attractive valuations that time"
Rel Capital 744.1 385.07 93.24 7% Again a great financial services growth story in India with anticipation for value unlocking to reduce debt. Promising Mutual fund growth especially in coming years in India
Minda Ind 770.75 104.8 635.45 7% Just bought this without much thought on some recommendation. Unfortunately sold half the holding at 30% gain in 15 days time. In 2 yrs time is 6 bagger.
Advanced Enzyme 315.75 342.46 -7.8 6% business with moat, promoters increasing stakes. Less competition
Supreme Ind 1,106.10 644.4 71.65 4% "Bought this 2 yrs. ago on lower input cost due to soft crude oil prices, Potential
growth story if synthetic material LPG cylinder becomes a norm in India"
CARE 1,613.10 1247.05 29.35 3% High margin business with good dividend percentage. Given the growth in growing economy going towards organized sectors
HFCL 16.9 17.6 -3.98 2% Optic Fibre demand due to 5G in next 5 yrs. in india and across the globe
Fortis Health 166.35 174.9 -4.89 2% When I grow old, to cover my hospital expenses
CDSL 311.7 376 -17.1 1% "Scalable business without proportionate increase in cost. Under penetration in
stock market and mutual funds by Indians would drive growth"
ICICI Bank 296.25 248.18 19.37 1% Excellent subsidiary businesses and excellent digital foot prints
SBI 305.25 267 14.33 1% “The bank trusted by every common indian with spread in Bharat economy. Ability to
get deposits from large number of middle lower class customers”


#2

Fortis will suck all you profits and then some :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: Don’t depend on your stock portfolio for your old age health. Instead, eat healthy, exercise regularly and sleep well.

Your Portfolio looks healthy though…Congrats!


(Manohar T. Patil) #3

Made modifications to the portfolio. This is as on 8/12(% allocation & Rationale). Experts thoughts/feedback pls.

Vikas Ecotech - 15% - Potential big opportunity size with less competition
NBCC (India) - 10% - HDFC of construction space
Edelweiss - 9% - Very good management. Multiple segments doing well
Aurobindo Pharm - 8% - Reasonable valuation and growth story
Minda Ind - 8% - HDFC of Auto Ancilliary space
NOCIL - 7% - Positioned to benefit from automobile explosion in India
MCX India - 6% - Moat & scalable without proportionate cost
Va Tech Wabag - 6% - Water Infrastructure, Need of hr. business segment
Manappuram Fin - 5% - Good outlook basis learnings from VPF
Reliance Nippon - 5% - Tremendous opportunity size, MF underpenetration, IPO was subscribed in a min.
HFCL - 4% - Optic Fibre demand for 5G and digital initiatives
Cochin Shipyard - 3% - Another Bharat Electronics
Srikalahasthi - 3% - Efficiency gain thru many initiatives, Good Demand for prod.
Advanced Enzyme - 3% - Moat and uniqueness. reduced exposure due to poor performance of late
AB Capital -2% - Promising combination of finance segment for 5 yrs. perspective
Fortis Health -2% - To benefit from increased health care spendings
Petronet LNG -1% - Want to increase exposure. Expansions done in past and planned. Uniqueness
ICICI Bank -1% - Well managed core business. Promising subsidiaries.
Reliance Home F - 1% - relatively undervalued home finance, good growth expected


(Hitesh Patel) #4

hi,

Whenever you construct a portfolio, make sure you know a lot about the companies with top allocation. In your case I see that vikas ecotech has the highest allocation. I dont know anything about the company so no views about it but one needs to be very very careful about allocating a high proportion of capital to small caps. If markets were to tank these kind of stocks can be decimated. Just to give you an idea the stock price of this particular company went from 33 on 16/09/2014 (adjusted for prior split) to 15.45 on 14/10/2014 in a matter of a few trading sessions. Now of course stock is quoting at its all time high so something obviously is going very right with the company or atleast it appears so.

Rest of the portfolio seems okay. Barring companies like hfcl, and fortis kind of companies. HFCL is one company which is a barometer of investor froth. :grinning: In most bull markets it tends to go up pretty late in the party for one reason or the other.


(yudiagg) #5

I am holding a decent number of Vikas ecotech after good due diligence. Could give very good returns- but one needs to keep a close watch for surprises. One can never take small caps for granted- especially in a bull run when management could float very sweet tales about future prospects.


(Alphin) #6

I have invested in Vikas Ecotech in my frequent trades portfolio with a small amount, as per me stock intrinsic value was 36 rs got out most qty at 34 rs Though story is very good and demerger may unlock further value, need to keep a close eye on management, execution and finanicials. Also need to check if pricing of crudes affect the margins as well as competitors from China.


(Manohar T. Patil) #7

I have made quite a few changes to the earlier portfolio. Exited on - Vikas Ecotech, Cochin Shipyard, Srikalahasti, Advanced Enzyme, AB Capital, Fortis Health, Petronet LNG, ICICI Bank and Reliance Home; Added mostly the Commodity stocks - Prakash Ind, Hind Copper; Carbon Products Stocks - Rain, Himadri; Special Situation - Graphite India

Would be grateful to know your thoughts as always!

Stock Percentages
Prakash Ind 11%
NOCIL 8%
Himandri Chem 8%
NBCC (India) 8%
Minda Ind 8%
Manappuram Fin 6%
Edelweiss 6%
Aurobindo Pharm 6%
Reliance Nippon 5%
Graphite India 5%
KCP 5%
RAIN 5%
Hind Copper 4%
HFCL 4%
Va Tech Wabag 4%
RCI 4%
National Aluminium 4%

(ramanhp) #8

Just curious about Prakash Ind as your highest allocation. I know you have your reasons. How do you view the commodity cycle plays, especially steel? There are various views on where the current steel cycle is.


(shreys) #9

Just my thoughts,
Investing in commodity stocks is fraught with danger. Few people can successfully exit before the upcycle ends. I don’t possess the ability to do so. I’ve seen some acquaintances stuck with commodity stocks purchased at cycle tops. It has a tremendous opportunity cost. And, I think that most positive inflows about these commodities are priced in, already discounted by the market. If the conditions worsen these stocks crack like a house of cards. High risk high reward play.
I wish you the best for your commodity stocks foray but also request you to exercise tremendous caution.


(shreys) #10

In my humble opinion, for Prakash Industries, I think it’s fairly priced. The steel cycle will end. No one knows when but it will.At a valuation of around 2650 crores, as of today, I’m not sure I see any margin of safety if things were to go south. One major buoy has been the massive bull run which led to quintipling of its market cap in 2 years. Market has to a reasonable extent discounted the glorious steel up cycle. Please be careful with commodities.


(Manohar T. Patil) #11

@ramanhp, My knowledge about commodity cycles is quite limited. My point of view is - With global recovery stabilizing, US plans to invest on Infra and demand from electric vehicles sector is likely to provide support to commodity prices for next few years.

About Prakash and Steel, Prakash has exposure only to Indian market. I am quite bullish on steel demand in India on the back of spendings on infrastructure, ports, defense (domestic production), scrapping policy for commercial vehicles etc. I do foresee good demand for Steel for next at least couple of years which will support prices. This is my personal view and rationale behind the investment. :slight_smile:


(Jaclyn) #12

Assuming I inherit this portfolio from you, :slight_smile:️ and also I remember your above words, I will sell all the commodity stocks from this portfolio as the first action. Because I also don’t understand commodity companies.

Of the remaining stocks, carefully think over which other are worth to hold and then take an appropriate decision. Hope you get the message. :slight_smile: