yes Being Human is. But is it confirmed that the tie up with Mandhana remains? or these stores are opened by Mandhana?
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This could be the reason:
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I know the real story . The promoters were looking for some other operator because of some issues with the one who was operating it. So the old one offloaded just 2lacs at the price of 280 some 20 days ago and from thereon it is like a pack of cards .
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few other concerns
if the business is doing alright why the promoters had to pledge more shares.
i felt that the merchandise of being human was inferior quality. with the stock hitting new bottom looks like that the franchise will not be renewed.
Even if the franchise is withdrawn, the company still has plants, factories, workforce, distribution etc plus their original textile business. WHY ARE THE PROMOTERS OR THE INSIDERS ARE NOT BUYING EVEN AFTER SUCH A STEEP FALL.
Maybe the books are cooked and maybe the profits were diverted from the retail franchise business of being human to the textile business and once the franchise goes so does the business.
this is just an assumption, only the promoters know the truth and they are not buying.
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More shares pledged…seems the promoters left with no more shares to pledge.
MANDHANA-3.pdf (53.0 KB)
The true pictures will be known only through their first qtr result.
Lesson learnt…stay away from Celebrity linked stocks ( previous ex. Snapdeal + Amir Khan ).
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More shares pledged may be a result of margin call or top up of existing pledge/
BSE Bulk Deal - 13-07-2016
NSE delivery detail
Quantity Traded 61,53,936
Deliverable Quantity (gross across client level) 29,21,761
% of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity 47.48 %
BSE Delivery detail
Quantity Traded 24,55,214
Deliverable Quantity (Gross across client level) 7,31,985
% of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity 29.81
Total delivery is about 36.5 lac shares…around 10% of total equity capital.
The question is…who was the buyer ? Retail alone or big pocket ?
How is possible to buy and sell at circuit? Why would anyone do thta? Is it to trap retail?
Hi Varun,
I think we need to calculate the value of Mandhana minus Being Human. For the sake of calculation let us assume that Being Human is gone.
What will be good price for the remaining business? I will also do some calculations and post.
Thanks
@Axis Varun
FYI-- ECL Finance is one of the companies where shares are pledged by the promoters (according to your Mandhana-3.pdf) and they are also the sellers.
Discl: No Holding in Mandhana
BeingHuman FB page shows ‘the business is as usual’.
Seems Salman Khan is taking things ( contract renewal ) in his own style…bit lazy kind of…also recent past he is too busy…Sultan. My guess is Mandhana Retail is intact.
Regarding company valuation calculation, finger crossed until the first qtr result which is expected in the middle of August ( last year result declared on 13.Aug.2015 ).
As the daily volume started increasing the price may settle around 32…i.e. 10% of peak as per technical analysis…the bear market target.
The big hurdle…high Debt and Pledged shares.
By seeing ECL Finance selling ( pledged share holder ), I sincerely hope that the selling is like an automatic machine…margin call stop loss trigger and automatic selling order…otherwise not to assume they sense something wrong in the company…means not an insider.
On July 13, 2016 IFCI Ltd. sold 3,00,000 shares of Mandhana Industries at Rs 70.35 on the NSE and sold 2,00,000 shares at Rs 70.40 on the BSE.
Also, Kotak Mahindra (International ) Ltd A/C Premier Investment sold 2,34,018 shares at Rs 70.35.
I’m thinking to bet high amount on Mandhana. Even if the Being Human stop its contract with Mandhana, still its valuation is rock bottom.
What’s your views?
Looks like you lost lot of money on Mandhana.
Could you please throw more light on the valuation of Mandhana you have calculated sans Being Human.
90 lakh to 1 crore sellers at around 60/- and maybe more can be be picked up at these rates, one is effectively getting controlling stake i.e. 30% or more of entire equity for 60 crs for a company having a cash EPS of 29/- i.e. 96 crs. and this does not include being human’s profit.
Some thing is not adding up. Maybe the books are cooked up???
Disc: not invested as yet
Feels like a retail trap from price action. Given the uncertainty on fundamentals, that’s all we have to judge, I’m afraid.
@Sownay
Yes…loosing lots of money…invested around 315…could able to exit only part qty at 236 in a free fall on those first 20% downside…from then on no chance of selling…not only me but some of my friends too.
I’ll do averaging at around Rs. 30…even that too is a risky one considering complete dark side being silent by the promoters.
We still do not know who was the bulk buyer around Rs. 71. No announcement yet. Also the shareholding pattern date is way back, 30.June.2016, the recent transaction wont reflect in the filing.
18.July.2016
No heavy SELLING ORDER in NSE ( 17 L ) and BSE ( 6 L ) compared to previous days and seems no margin call trigger ( selling order of pledged shares ) when price goes down.
Is it a trap or genuinely something happening behind ?
Unless the books are cooked, I think that the market is overreacting. The market cap is near to the value of Fixed Assets (Factory (Plant+Land)). This is serious undervaluation, if the figures are not pure lies.
Being Human brings only 10% to the revenue. I’d say that even without that revenue, and the much higher margins that accompany the same, it looks like a ValuePick.
DISC: Tracking, looking to exploit the vagaries of Mr. Market.