Looking for your feedback on my Portfolio-Yogesh

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
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Hello Everyone,
After being mute spectator for long on this great forum, I am sharing my portfolio here.

Before that about me, I am a techie currently in Pune and entered stocks world sometime in 2015. Things are going okay for me but not great. I read one up by Peter Lynch and Five rules by Dorsey and tried to read as much as possible from this forum and in general from web. As a person, I learn by doing. I don’t have patience to learn and then do, same reflects in my investment journey as well.

I am really amazed by the thought process and generosity of the members here. Hats off.

The reason for sharing the portfolio now is correction we are seeing in the market and I think it’s the best time to readjust my portfolio. Looking for your precious advice on
-how can I improve my future returns :blush:
-When to sell?
-Am I on a right path or should leave stock picking and stick to MFs. You can be blunt.

Please don’t expect in depth details from me on the companies I invested coz most of the details are already available on this forum :blush:

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Other than that I have below small positions constitute my remaining portfolio:
Cipla
Kesoram
IDFC Bank
Patels Airtemp
PTC
Websol Energy
Lasa

PI Industries- I entered it after bad Q2. Story is well covered on this forum. I expect it to be a good compounder for next 2-3 years. Will add more if it comes around 800.
Suzlon- Will wait till Q4 results. Are the increased volumes overcome decreased margins? Lets see.

CCL Products- Again well covered here. Success in domestic consumer business can rerate the stock. Exports already doing good. I don’t see much downside on this. Will add more if it comes below 270.
SpiceJet- I see aviation as a growth story not cyclic. I avoid cyclic. I expect spicejet to do good for next 2-3 years.

Ramky Infra- A turnaround infra story was available at good valuations. I am tracking their debt reduction efforts in next few quarters. Not planning to hold for very long term.

JM financial- It’s a risky sector for me as I don’t understand much but it’s the sector in demand. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Orient Paper and industries- I used to read spin offs can give you good returns. This one turned out one for me.

Persistent Systems- being a techie, I liked the areas in which company was working and trying to grow. Valuations were attractive. Will add more if it comes around 700.

Sasken tech- similar argument as Persistent.

Satin Credit Care- Was amazed by its growth and was unaware of the risks lending business carry. Entered before demonetization. Added more during fall. It remains a risky one but for next 2-3 years I am willing to take risk.

Torrent Power- One of the better one in power stocks. Good Dividend paying company betting big into renewables as well. But too much dependence on govt policies looks risky to me. Tracking this one on QOQ basis.

Orient Ref- Consistent growth. I see it as proxy to steel sector. Will add more if it comes around 150.
Shreyas Shipping- Got lucky with this. One of my friend suggested this. Looked positive to me after reading their annual report and company is posting excellent results from last 2-3 quarters. Tracking this one QOQ basis.

Intense tech- In the bull market, I forgot to check margin of safety. Still suffering due to that. Company and product are good but where are the earnings ?? Will wait for one more quarter. May be this story is developing patience in me :blush:

Kotak bank- My salary account used to be in this bank and I was quite impressed with their services. Then I read about Uday Kotak and invested some money in stock. My first investment. Planning to keep for long time…will add more if market give some opportunity.

ITC- proxy to rural growth. Cigarette remains a stable business and they should be able to overcome all short-term pains. One of my defensive pick.

Godrej Agro- Proxy to rural growth. Excellent management. I expect it to be consistent compounder.

Kindly Provide your feedback and suggestions.

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Added some more shares of PI Industries, CCL Products and Tube Investments recently. Still waiting for comments from the members here. Thank you.

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Hi yogesh

Good to see you buying what you know. Namely persistent and sasken.

Among the rest i think suzlon and ramky remain the riskier bets.

The other picks look good and should provide decent returns. I like the fact that you have a reason to buy a company, each one of them.

Rgds
Hitesh.

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Thank you sir. Getting feedback from you made my day and I am not saying this just for saying :slight_smile:

Suzlon reminds me the famous quote ‘turnarounds seldom turn’. The reason I am holding is I see better times ahead for them and it is the worst time to sell now as the price has been beaten badly.

The most important thing I want to learn right now is when to sell. One of the stock Mindtree I was holding for more than a year and sold it after seeing no business improvement . Within a month I sold, market re rated the stock. Suzlon on the other side, I should have sold once Govt changed the wind auction policies. I thought that as a temporary issue and decided to hold.
Long way to go here.

Other than that I am trying to learn about different sectors and how companies make money there, general risks involved.

Regards,
Yogesh

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I’ll be a little less diplomatic and be more blunt in my feedback. Infact, I will try to share my learning that’s disguised as a feedback.

To start with, I am quite certain that it will be practically impossible for you to keep an intimate track of everything thats happening in the sectors and the stocks that you have listed. You have 25 stocks up there that span across 15-20 sectors. Not very different from a list that you’ll see for that average mutual fund out there. Think about this - the mutual fund has a full-time fund manager with an army of analysts and data crunchers with access to all sorts of analytical databases. If you transfer all of your money in your portfolio to that mutual fund, you will get all of that for 2% of your portfolio value. Again, think about this - the personal time that you will spend to manage your own portfolio combined with the anxiety that will accompany it will eventually cost you more than 2%. You will be better off to channelize all of that time and effort to maximize your earnings instead from your job/business etc and keep increasing your allocation to the funds.

With all that I said, if you still want to pursue stock picking, I would suggest the following approach :

  1. Sell off all your stocks and put all of your money in a liquid fund. This will be painful but beneficial in the long term. Trust me - you wont lose much considering we are staring at a very volatile year.
  2. Now, shortlist 3-4 sectors where you think you are best placed to understand the business intricacies of those sectors. Do this one sector at a time.
  3. Within these sectors, start studying individual companies starting with the market leaders. Do your own valuations and have a entry price range tagged to each of those companies. Be very pessimistic here.
  4. Now, just wait. Wait, wait, wait. This is again painful but beneficial in the long run.
  5. When your short-listed stock enters that price range, dont just enter the pool but dive. You need to bet big.

You’ll probably end up with a portfolio of 5-6 stocks where your conviction levels are very high with comfortable margins of safety. Probability of higher returns are more, less anxiety and sound sleep at night.

To re-iterate again, this is my personal learning disguised as a feedback for you :slight_smile:

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Thanks Sandeep. I like straight forward people and I am one of them.

My equity portfolio is doing much better than what FD or liquid funds will return{I agree it may be due to bull run} so no question of selling all stocks.

May be right now my portfolio is not beating mutual funds, but I am confident of doing that may be in next 2-3 years. As Peter Lynch says, individual investor is more capable of making money from stocks than a fund manager, because they are able to spot good investments in their day-to-day lives before Wall Street. You can see many examples of smart investors on this forum who are beating the fund manager and its team year by year.

If I give all my money to fund manager, I may earn more. But where is all the learning and exposure I am getting.

And Stock picking I like doing. Its challenging, that why I am here. And I sleep peacefully even after lower circuits :slight_smile:

Yes i want to limit number of stocks to 15. That was one of the reason I shared my portfolio here.One of the reason of keeping diversified folio initially was to learn more than earn more.

So I like the approach you suggested for stock picking. But I want to do that while being invested. I want to utilize this volatile year to build a long term portfolio.

Regards,
Yogesh

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