Should come out of T to T soon
Met the management of Lasa Supergenerics recently at their JB Nagar office. Penning down some of the relevant points (few of these may have been covered earlier, pls bear with the same. On a lighter note, may help in refreshing our thoughts):
- Commencement of operations - Unit V. While the management did not commit to any specific date for commencement of operations, they were very confident of commencing during this quarter. Further, the plan is to operationalise this in 5 phases, in each phase the capacity utilisation being about 600-700 MT. Only after stabilisation of a phase would they get onto the next phase.
- As against the debt of 107 crores outstanding in the books of the company as on 31 march 2017, it is now reduced to about 62 crores.
- There would be an inter-se transfer of about 14% of the shares of the company with OSCL, which would increase the shareholding of the promoter to 37%. This would however take some time (6 months atleast) as regulatory approvals are required.
- Targeting topline growth of about 25% annually from the current 200 crores. This is a conservative estimate without taking into consideration operations of unit V or any add on products. 98% of the current revenue is from veterinary API and 40% of the revenue is from exports(mainly South American countries, Egypt & Australia). Top 7 products(patented) contribute 80% of the turnover.
- The company has over 250+ clients which include pharma, dairy, aqua and poultry sectors. It also supplies to some of the companies operating in the same field (Sequent and Oceanic pharmachem).
- Capacity utilisation of Mahad plant is about 85% while that of Chiplun plants are considerably lower.
- Raw material (petrochemical derivatives) sourcing is mainly from Reliance and IOCL with some items being imported from China (mainly because of cost factor).
- The company would eventually foray into formulation business by inorganic route. No specific timeline for this as of now.
- Working capital cycle would be maintained at around 75 days.
- With the existing R&D unit with OSCL post demerger, the company plans to setup a state of the art R&D unit within 6 months with a capital outlay of 5 crores.
Overall, Lasa seems to be on a good wicket with strong growth potential along with their expertise in Catalytical Chemistry would enable them to have more patented products going forward. In the short term, however, they may take a while in enhancing their operations, streamlining organisational structure and setting up their R&D unit. Along the way, we may get to see JVs and takeover of a company involved in formulation business.
Disc: Invested, views may be biased.
Thank you Jumbo. Good coverage. To me, the above quoted is something that qualifies as a real “moat”.
So can we assume that the new effluent treatment capacity is near completion?
The management has confirmed that there is nothing pending from their end and all required clearances are in place.
Now that the entire promoters quota is in demat form, why is it not being moved out of the T group ? And if there s nothing pending from their side , then why is the start of Unit 5 being repeatedly postponed ? I hope it is not due to lack of working capital .
There is no update on the unit 5 and we are nearly at the end of October. I am concerned about the elevated market levels and add to that there is still no update on the start of unit 5. It has been a profitable hold for the last year. Gave nearly 50% upside.
Disc- I have started reducing my position today. Will leave to to about 1% of portfolio by EOD.
Won’t it be ideal to wait for quarter results before taking a call? Won’t it give a better understanding about revenue and profits?
The results usually come quite late and they might come only end of November or December. I have other reasons as well, and I have just posted on them in the Nifty PE thread. It is basically a calculated call based on the market weather and is not only stock specific. But, for LASA I had a cutoff towards end of October for exit if they do not update on the unit 5 so I stuck to my decision.
I think it would be better to wait for it to come out of T group and the q2 numbers , which would be the firsst set of regular numbers after demerger.
It won’t commence soon and they Dont have any specific time line reply as off now
Unit V will commence soon.
No such exact time line been given by concerned team.
Will keep investors updated on timely developments.
This is the reply from them today
Commence the unit V and do what? This is not some shirt manufacturing unit where you add an extra unit and start production there overnight.
They are going to make a new molecule, a sulpha drug in unit V. So they will be doing test batches (done already) and sending samples for approval, post which they will get some orders and then they will start the production at unit V.
I have been watching the discussions on the group for months and everyone is just talking about the unit V (unit 4 in Lasa nomenclature) starting. I hope this point is noted.
Originally, unit V had a capacity 4700 metric tonnes. However, some reactors are taken out for whatever reason (they said damage) and the current capacity is 3200 metric tonnes.
Now, people stare at the number 3200 and start guessing the increase in turnover. But prices of different molecules are different and so such capacity means nothing.
Finally, Lasa is good at catalytic chemistry. For example, one process takes 48 hours. They are able to reduce that process to 18 to 24 hours using some catalysts like Alumina. So overnight, the ‘capacity’ doubles, as they can double the production in the same period.
Having said this, I have no clue when the unit V would start. The market is discounting the stock price due to this uncertainty. Whether this is an opportunity or a stay-away signal is every investor’s call.
Once the teething problems are overcome and the new unit starts production, it will give a boost to the sentiment. The ramping up of production will take some time. The current price , in my view just discounts the present performance and does not include any expectations of the market about the future.
HI @Madhurkotharay ,
Good to know these details. May we know the source of all these info please?
First, I am quite positive on LASA. It is more of a call on the state of our markets which are quite overheated according to me, and at every level of exuberance, I find it prudent to keep booking profits. Many of the same stocks remain on my buy list to move back into when I feel comfortable.
If it was any other company I would have exited the day it listed in the current market scenario. That should say something about my confidence in LASA.
Today I would sell even HUL and Bajaj Finance
Having said that, here is the situation on why unit 5 is important according to me and why I set the October end target. Please feel free to update and advise. You are one of the few people on this page who actually has something to add to the conversation, quite frankly.
Well, when we met the management they told us that unit 5 is ready to start and can be started by them any day. We had some reason to believe that some or many equipment has been moved out from that unit and did ask, and they said no, nothing has been moved out. You have just confirmed, if correct, that indeed, some reactors have been moved out. So why did the management not candidly answer. Since we did not visit the plant, it was a critical thing for us to get confirmation that the huge capacity is actually existing, and as a investor I can get confidence only when it starts and not on promises. Thus my deadline for the time I was willing to give them.
The other reason for the unit 5 is, the are nearly at full capacity. The major growth can only come with using additional capacity and reaching 500 Cr is sales is not possible without this unit.
Also, like I said, today if the market was not overheated, I would have given a much longer rope to LASA to perform, but it is a speculative market call to reduce my holdings to a minimum and not a strong co-relation to LASA.
Disc- Invested and may buy on any dips.
Is this related to the 30 cr exceptional item in March quarter results?
I spoke to the CS today, he said the commencement of unit 5 pushed to November, and regarding the equipment moving to a different location hasn’t happened
The commencement of production in Unit 5 is now scheduled for early November, due to some teething problems, as they say. This repeated postponement is bothering me. I hope they do not postpone it again . However, the reason I am not selling is that, even for the current numbers, the scrip seems to be either fully priced or underpriced, depending on your view.Trying to time ones entry and exit , could be very risky, in this case.
The scrip will complete ten trading sessions after he announcement of full dematerialisation of promoters stake, on 31st October. So, I am expecting it to be moved out of T1 group from 1st November.
I am not sure if exchanges are going to review demat shares of promoters on ongoing basis. Most probably exchanges will review the shareholding pattern when it is filed again which will be in January and then move it out of T to T.
How does trading segment even matter to investors?