You have figured out the numbers right. Mr Market may have other considerations which puts Lasa on “Wait and Watch” mode, based on the past of the combined entity (The past may be past, and we should be looking at the future potential - Yes true - But…)
The main concerns are highlighted here:
Falling institutional holding
Institutional shareholding in the company has come down over the last couple of years from ~15% in Q1FY16 to 4.4% in Q3FY17. Institutional investors are long term investors and provide stability to the stock prices.
Decreasing share of export revenues
Exports accounted for 28% of the revenues in FY13 which has halved to 14% in FY16. Revenues from exports fell 14% in FY16. In 9MFY17 it has further declined to 12%. Slowdown in exports is likely to impact topline growth.
Delays in commissioning plant
Delay in commissioning of its Unit V plant is taking a toll on OSCL’s finances as the company had taken loans and already incurred capex for the same. Further delays would continue to escalate its costs.
Foreign exchange fluctuations
OSCL is a net forex earner and most of its exports are done in dollars. Recent strength of the rupee against the dollar could hurt its profitability going forward.
Share sale / Pledging by promoters
Promoters have sold their shares in the open market to repay loans taken by them. Their holding has declined significantly making the company vulnerable and keeping share price under check.
Raw material price fluctuations:
OSCL faces the risk of fluctuations in its raw materials (~70% of sales) which it may not be able to pass over in sluggish/competitive times.
The plants of the company run regulatory risks of inspections and environment clearances. Although the plants are fungible its operations are likely to be impacted in the short term if a ban were to be imposed on any of its plants.
Debt equity ratio remains high
OSCL has funded its capacity expansion over FY12-FY16 largely through raising debt. As a result its debt-equity ratio has remained on the higher side.
Long story short, Lasa is a story waiting to be unfolded. One need patience here. Please also read the transcript of Mr Omkar Herlekar in one of my earlier posts in this thread, to get an idea of their business and what the promoter is doing to reduce debt.