Does anybody know when the results of Lasa Supergenics are expected ?
They have informed both the exchanges that it will be on before Dec 14
Can you please share the link/source confirming that it informed both exchanges? I checked BSE Corp Announcements but found nothing.
Thank you, Sanmam. Sorry - I don’t know why I read Unni’s comment as Unit 5 to start on or before Dec 14. I went and looked at Corp Announcement but found nothing regarding Unit 5 start date. My brain is thinking of only Unit 5 when it comes to Lasa.
Multiple triggers approaching. The first will be when it is moved out of t group . This might happen during the next week. Then we may have the announcement of unit 5 startup in 3rd or 4th week of November. Aftet that will come the announcement of q2 results in the 1st or 2nd week of december.
Finally !!!, light at the end of tunnel. This will put to an end to the question on Unit V starting up.
Any idea why does it say unit lV?
Unit V was the original designation when it was the unified entity with OSCL. After Lasa demerged, it is now designated as Unit IV. That is my understanding.
I have added a couple of slides for better clarity
Thanks. You are right.
Anyone has any update on the stock moving out of T2T category
I think that will happen in january or february only. Shareholding pattern gets reviewed only when quarterly shareholding pattern are submitted.
What is the revenue potential of this unit 4 capacity alone? Does this mean the incremental capex requirements are going to lessen way forward?
Hi @srnarayan, This partially answers your question ( The source is an HDFC sec research report for the combined entity. The plant designation should be read accordingly).
The revenue potential is discussed in the concall transcripts earlier in OSCL thread (am not able to find it at this point). There is no further capex requirement immediately as per the disclosures. Opex will be a different matter though.
Many thanks for sharing the data…
Some basic calculations going through OSCL Annual Report
So conservatively assuming if OSCL guys make roughly about Rs.24lakh per ton in revenue terms; then Unit V of OSCL (now Unit IV for LASA) assuming it to be at 4500T alone translates to a rough ~750crs revenue potential which in addition to comparison of peers below translates into one of the cheapest company in this business on market cap to sales alone…
What is it that i am missing or markets are discounting?
You have figured out the numbers right. Mr Market may have other considerations which puts Lasa on “Wait and Watch” mode, based on the past of the combined entity (The past may be past, and we should be looking at the future potential - Yes true - But…)
The main concerns are highlighted here:
Falling institutional holding
Institutional shareholding in the company has come down over the last couple of years from ~15% in Q1FY16 to 4.4% in Q3FY17. Institutional investors are long term investors and provide stability to the stock prices.
Decreasing share of export revenues
Exports accounted for 28% of the revenues in FY13 which has halved to 14% in FY16. Revenues from exports fell 14% in FY16. In 9MFY17 it has further declined to 12%. Slowdown in exports is likely to impact topline growth.
Delays in commissioning plant
Delay in commissioning of its Unit V plant is taking a toll on OSCL’s finances as the company had taken loans and already incurred capex for the same. Further delays would continue to escalate its costs.
Foreign exchange fluctuations
OSCL is a net forex earner and most of its exports are done in dollars. Recent strength of the rupee against the dollar could hurt its profitability going forward.
Share sale / Pledging by promoters
Promoters have sold their shares in the open market to repay loans taken by them. Their holding has declined significantly making the company vulnerable and keeping share price under check.
Raw material price fluctuations:
OSCL faces the risk of fluctuations in its raw materials (~70% of sales) which it may not be able to pass over in sluggish/competitive times.
The plants of the company run regulatory risks of inspections and environment clearances. Although the plants are fungible its operations are likely to be impacted in the short term if a ban were to be imposed on any of its plants.
Debt equity ratio remains high
OSCL has funded its capacity expansion over FY12-FY16 largely through raising debt. As a result its debt-equity ratio has remained on the higher side.
Long story short, Lasa is a story waiting to be unfolded. One need patience here. Please also read the transcript of Mr Omkar Herlekar in one of my earlier posts in this thread, to get an idea of their business and what the promoter is doing to reduce debt.
The 5th unit commissioning atleast clears one of the key risks.
The other ones to watch out for is the promoter holding. Has anyone in the group visited their plants?
Hester and lasa are not comparable. Hester is into vaccinations in a big way . For sequent a part of them is into animal antibiotics. But also into human api. Apart from that the pledge is a big dampener
Anyone who wishes to buy Omkar or Lara and by chance visits this forum will never buy it as there is so much negative contribution by members. Everyone is trying to question the management which has built these businesses with their sheer hard work and technical capabilities. I am sure most of us understand how difficult is to run businesses, especially for a first generation entrepreneur. I understand these companies are in highly specialized chemicals manufacturing and went through reorganisation because of family settlement. The financials are also stabilizing now and sooner the market is going to see their worth.
@raajjai - Not sure what are you trying to convey here. I dont think the intent of this Forum is a) to make a buy/sell recommendation and b) paint only rosy picture of a company or promoters.
Each of us are trying to understand the business, the company and the promoters in our own ways. There could be different perspectives. It is natural to look from all angles before you buy into the business. Not sure if your have read thru the Kitex thread and many more similar discussion.
The Harlekars are first gen and had been trying to do their best. I answered the question asked to me in my way. If you got an opinon about it, kindly respond with facts and figures.
In the last couple of sentences you just paraphrased what I mentioned here:.