I am Sandeep Kochar from Gujarat. I am following ValuePickr forum silently for last one year. Its a great place to share your thoughts here and a good learning platform for newbies like me. I am sharing my portfolio…suggestions are invited …
SrNo. Name Avg Buy Price CMP Allocation
1 Excel Crop care 2000 4600 10%
2 Reliance Inds* 450 1250 8%
3 Heritage Foods* 200 600 8%
4 Orient Refrac 150 240 7%
5 Exide 230 288 7%
6 GE Power 650 775 5%
7 Endurance Tech 820 1550 5%
8 MCX 1000 875 5%
9 GAEL 210 215 5%
10 CESC 1000 1000 5%
11 Havells 650 700 5%
12 Voltamp 1050 950 4%
13 AIA Engg 1500 1800 4%
14 Jamna Auto 82 85 4%
15 ITC 275 315 4%
16 Ashiana Housing 185 150 4%
17 Tata Motors 350 265 3%
Rest is HSIL, AYM Syntex, Gokaldas Export…
all senior members @hitesh2710, @desaidhwanil, @ayushmit, @rupeshtatiya, @deevee, @vivek_mashrani @suru27, @dd1474, @basumallick @aveekmitra please give your valuable suggstion…
Rationale behind stocks:
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Excel Crop care
New promoters M/S Sumitomo acquired the company and new MD is having a great track record, synergy between both companies can produce high growth, launching new products, Old promoters which not seems to be growth oriented exiting, New products are being launched. Now Parent company is merging it with them… -
Reliance Industries
Picked as a large cap stock for pf stability, proved good for me , multiple triggers like Jio launching, retail turning Ebidta +ve
3 Heritage Foods
A consistently performing company in dairy business which has good market size opportunity, getting rid of non performing Retail Biz, now focus on core Dairy Biz and increasing Value Added Products share, however execution is a key to be watch out for
- Orient Refractory
Indirect way to play forthcoming boom in EAF steel sector, good parent support, constantly showing good growth. Now Parent RHI want to merge, synergy will reflect in coming days…
5 Exide
lost market share to Amaron due to capacity constraint, Now mgmt correcting past mistakes, renewed focus on replacement market, investment in Expansion and technology up gradation, sector tailwinds make it a safe bet…
6 GE Power
Best option to play pollution control theme, govt published new emission norms for thermal power plants and GE is the leader in the all pollution control technology, GE acquired Alstom and new mgmt focusing on cost reduction, bringing new technology and base biz of Boilers and construction contracts is also bottoming out…
7 Endurance Technologies
A leading automotive component manufacturer in india, indirect way to play Automobiles boom in india, good product portfolio with better operating margins
8 MCX
Monopoly in commodity trading, many triggers new regulator-SEBI, New products-Options, New market participant- Institutions, New mgmt team; operating leverage come into picture…
9 GAEL
Capacity expansion in profitable maize processing units, good capital allocation as mgmt is deploying most of money in profit making segment, reducing low margin trading biz, family dispute settled, superb execution quality when peers are making loss it making highest profitable growth. In agri processing segment, focus is now on profitability rather than revenue
10 CESC
For demerger play,
11 Havells
Indian consumption story is here to stay, good brands, entering into newer categories, acquired Lloyd AC brand, good cash flow, Mgmt team is focusing more on future ready product.
12 Voltamp
A contra pick, can be a indirect play to power sector revival, govt focus on Power for all, govt launched various schemes UDAY, gram Jyoti Yojna to revive power sector, transformer sector can be beneficial to this, downside looks limited, Voltamp having strong B/S, net cash positive company…
13 AIA Enggineering
Leader in niche segment of grinding media, gaining market share from leader, mega expansion plans are coming, robust balance sheet
14 Jamna Auto
proxy to play commercial vehicles cycle, india’s largest suspension provider for CV, good execution capabilities with strong balance sheet.
15 ITC
large cap for pf stability, downside looks limited, launching more product and focusing more in FMCG segment, Hotel and paper both sectors also doing good.
16 Ashiana Housing
After RERA, GST and demonetisation Real estate industry is consolidating and market is shifting towards well organised and good B/S companies and Ashiana is one of them. Good mgmt team, better execution capabilities
17 Tata Motors
valuation play
Gokaldas Export
Bought after PE firms exiting and new promoters coming in, very small allocation, lets see how new promoters run it.
AYM syntex
Company wants to be a specialized yarn manufacturing company but testing patience. commercialization of niche product is key. Invested at 60, cmp it 40…having small allocation…
Stocks under radar:
TCI Xpress, Borosil Glass, Edelweiss, Hikal
all senior members @hitesh2710, @desaidhwanil, @ayushmit, @rupeshtatiya, @deevee, @vivek_mashrani @suru27, @dd1474, @basumallick @aveekmitra please give your valuable suggestion…
Seems like a well constructed portfolio with some dominant large caps, sector leaders at the core and some picks in emerging companies and some turnarounds.
I think it should do very well going forward.
Looks a very good portfolio to me from stock selection, capital allocation and diversification perspective. There are few commonalities in our portfolio and many of them stay in my watch list too. Few comments/suggestions/queries (for mutual learning):
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Any particular reason for not having any stock from BFSI considering some of themes can generate wealth for longer duration
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Some of the picks may not be secular in nature and may need additional caution from timing perspective. So, are you having a same time frame/hold/sell strategy for all or it differs based on nature and extent of cyclic behavior
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I did not have any auto stock in my portfolio so far though dabbled with Tata motors but could not build conviction due to too many moving parts. What I understand is in this space there are lot of good names with reasonably good financial metric. Any particular reason why you picked endurance over others (more from relative selection perspective). May help me to learn a bit on auto sector
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Why AYM syntex, why not ambika cotton or vardhman textiles?
You seem to have a rationale for each stock and have built up a decent portfolio. Keep reviewing the performance of the companies and making adjustments as required.
If you are following valuepickr for last 1 year and I assume investment experience less than 3 years (you may correct me if I am wrong), you are definitely possessing one of the most important quality required to be sucessful investor i.e. quick learner. Your rationale, clarity of thought and portfolio construction along with allocation appears to be much better if I compare to myself. However, every individual is different.
Only suggestion from my side is you may consider allocating more to secular growth idea like Havells, ITC and Heritage (I consider it as FMCG) . Currently, Reliance, Orient Refractory, Excide, GE Power, MCX, GAEL, Gokaldas export and AYM Syntex have either linkage to commodity or Economy cycle. It may sense to look portfolio by providing attribute to commodity, secular, structural change (like Reliance and Excel in your portfolio) and excersie allocation cap at that level.
While you have done very well on portfolio allocation, selection and size, for long term success, you need to demostrate “Patient (Dhiraj)” and control your emotion. It is simpler said than practised. So focus more to develop on these skills as over long term, understanding behaviour would contribute more to return then all other factors in my opinion.
Appreciate your efforts to categorise me as an “expert”. My opinion, the day I become expert, I would stop learning and would always like to be learner.
Wish you all the best for future and happy investing cum learning journey for life .
Your portfolio looks well designed and allocated. Your rationale is also well studied. Overall I liked it. I have Orient Refractories and Jamna Auto which is common with your Portfolio and thinking to add Havells next month.
A nice portfolio. Only thing about Excel Crop. Dont agree with your new MD track record comment.
i am from this industry and am distributor of many companies in Aurangabad.
The said MD (65 years) was running a company called Nuchemi for 30 years (up to age 55 years) ,could not grow beyond 50 crores. He got his company from his father. All the other Indian companies grew from zero to 1000 crores (UPL,PI,Gharda, Meghamani,Sharda). He could not do anything.So can’t say that track record is good.
He sold this company to Sumitomo in 2009. He also went to Sumitomo. Upto 2011 , business did not grow . Sumitomo was in loss.I was a distributor of Sumitomo and stopped working with them in 2010 as there were many bad policies.
In 2011, few new people joined from Monsanto who changed the business.I started working with Sumitomo again. And these new people changed the whole business. Agro chemical business is run by Deputy Managing Director ,who came from Monsanto. He is still managing Sumitomo Chemical agro chemical business.
Even if you see last year growth, it is coming from related party sale to Sumitomo Chemical. Check the thread on Excel Crop in this forum.
From price of 200o to 4500, seems to be a re-rating story . A MNC buying a local company. Growth is also there. But growth is coming from Sumitomo selling Excel Crop products.
Current year growth -my guess- all pesticide prices are going up by 10-15% . Also Sumitomo Chemical selling Excel products.
Always check AR , it would show you related arty sale. It would tell you whether company is growing on its own or it is growing because of related party sale.
Future- re-rating has happened. Merger has been announced. Next trigger would be whether company grow in future. Also it would depend what happens when one company is made out of two.
thank you very much sir for taking out time and replying…your suggestions means a lot for me…
thank you sir for your kind reply…hope for getting your suggestion in future also…
thanks Saurabh for looking into my pf…
- regrading BFSI, i used to hold City Union bank and Bajaj Finserv…however sold at decent gain but sold early…now looking expensive…Small finance bank sector looks interesting …will look deep into it…
- yes some picks are fit into cyclical…not secular growth stocks…like Gael,jamna …will keep check on commodities prices, CV cycles…Not buy and hold type strategy here…
- Regarding Tata motors, was bought only on valuation basis but proved wrong…u rightly said that there are many moving parts…will take a call on it…regarding Endurance-- i was searching for a already establishing company having 3K-5K Mcap as i m believing that 3K-5K company can easily become 25-30K in coming decade…Endurance is leading 2W auto component company having leadership in Disc brake, Alu casting…its a R&D based innovative company however valuation is expensive…
- Regarding AYM, i come to know this company first when i saw Ayush Mittal and Safir Anand name is shareholder list…was tracking this for last 1.5 yrs but invested 6 months back when mgmt turned +ve about their niche product and commercialization of these products and valuation was also reasonable…but it is taking a lot of time and commodity textile biz also hurting so stock price too…frankly speaking didnt studied Ambika or Vardhman…
looking for more healthy discussion in future also…i am a naive but want to learn more and more…looking for your suggestion
thanks Dhiraj Sir… u rightly predicted i started my investing journey from 3 yrs back in May’15. Before that wasted 2-3 yrs in trading and gained nothing…
Will look into allocating more into secular growth stocks and will keep watch on commodity or economy cycle related picks and their allocation…
Yes patience is essential but rare thing…it come with conviction and conviction comes from reading…so want to read and learn more and more…
thanks very much sir your valuable advice…will definitely look into your suggestion…
thanks sir for valuable inputs regarding Excel…frankly speaking some facts i was not knowing…will look into it and come back to you…
this is greatness of this forum that we find many industry expert here who are ready to share their knowledge…
Thanks for your responses buddy. Wish you all the best and looking forward to more discussions 
Check Excel Crop thread, there is some issue with MD buying shares in competitor company Bhagiradha ,and a big market operator is also involed in the purchase.
Unable to understand some stocks in the portfolio :
- Heritage Foods : The OPMs are very very poor and highly fluctuating. Very High other income in last 2 Years , what comprises that ?
- GE Power : Again very poor OPMs . Negative 3 Yr , 5 Yr and 10Yr Sales Growth , extremely poor Return on Equity
- MCX : Negative 5 Yr Sales growth and Negative 5 Yr profit Growth .
- CESC : Very Poor ROE , ROCE . 5 Years Profit Growth:4.70% , 3 Years Profit Growth:1.99% (SJVN looks a better bet in same industry with better ROEs and dividend Yield)
- Voltamp : Again Negative 10 Year Sales Growth , poor 5 year sales growth
- Ashiana : Negative Cash flow from Operations for last 5 years
Any particular reason for too many Power stocks.
Note: I am very new to investing , have experience of less than 1 year ! My views may be immature as not much experience of industries. Based on my limited knowledge , i have put my views.
I felt much of your stocks are defensive plays. I don’t think much growth will be their in many of these businesses. I personally prefer stocks having either good OPMs / Double digit ROE , ROCE ratios , Positive Sales growth on 3Yr , 5 Yr , 10 Yr period.
Disc: I hold Havells @520 , Orient Refractories @170 and Exide@220 from above stocks !
are u tracking Gokaldas export after mgmt change n turnaround results???
Latest news is that the person (DMD) who was running Sumitomo Chemical 's show in India has gone to Singapore , it may happen after merger. It is really worrisome, at the time of merger of two contrast cultures -MNC & a generic company -the person who was responsible for Sumitomo Chemical India growh won’t be there anymore .Check the article here : Sumitomo Chemical’s India DMD -Pran Arora moving to Singapore as Asia Pacific Business Head