Intense implementation does not required to major update hardware and software changes of vendors which is major advantage compared to their competetior. Is it so?
Intense module does not require major changes in Hardware and software of vendors compared to their competetiors. That is major advantage
As to intense.Is It so?
This is a classical chicken and egg situation. If they recruit more people in Europe and USA then sales costs will shoot up and break even point will soar from 65 crores now to may be 80 crores. When you recruit any new sales person (Believe me in the US or Europe they come very very expensive) it takes on an average 15 months for him to turn productive.
And how many will you recruit 5 in USA and 5 in Europe. The costs will shoot up and shareholders will start shouting . (This is what happened with Intellect Design Arena).
So to break this loop a strategic partner is the way out where u get readymade customer set, references and a marketing network. The costs are capital dilution and possible commissions.
I have been tracking this company and the discussion here has been very valuable. Also, I think the CEO has increased his shareholding from ~423,135 in Dec 2014 to 1,223,135 & 1,285,635 in Dec 2015 and Dec 2015 respectively.
Is that a current understanding?
Anybody has a clue why market is punishing this stock so cruelly. It came exactly back to the breakout levels of 80/-
Good question.I try to give the simplest possible answer.
The company has got an excellent software product in its arsenal which was proved a success by its marquee clients .Yet the share is quoting at its present levels since "In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine ( In the words of Mr Benjamin Graham ) ".
The current market price of the share at Rs 85 to Rs 90 covered by a consolidated EPS of Rs2.49 and PE of around 35 and the market only ‘sees’ this.
The reason for downturn is very simple. BSNL phase for data migration has been postponed due to the Supreme court judgement on aadhar mobile linkage. So around 35 crores of revenues are postponed. Due to the peculiar financial structure of product companies.almost all of the revenues would have translated to profits before tax as the cost structure
of Intense is around 65 crores which is more or less covered by the current revenues. So the clouds will remain till:
- Visibility on BSNL resumption
- More deal wins announcements in Europe and US to mitigate the risks.
- More clairity on potential stake sale or partnerships mentioned in the concall.
As the initiator of this thread, I have a slightly different view on this.
Why do u feel the stock is down ? Its been 11 months since I started this thread and the price is up 30% since then. Lets compare this with how its peers have performed
Majesco : -27%
Intellect : - 45%
Infy : -8%
Nifty : +14%
The interim price price was an aberration as people who knew little about the story climbed the bandwagon thinking that they will palm it off to someone else 5% higher. As is often the case, such exuberance is followed by an extremely excruciating grind down and a final capitulation, the final phase which I think we are witnessing right now.
If anything, the company by dint of efforts and deal gains is on a better footing as compared to 1 year back.
Yes, BSNL postponement is a setback but that’s part and parcel of any business.
So, the real villain in the piece is those investors who loaded a small-cap without adequate knowledge and then sold it off like it was a fly-by-night company from Hyderabad.
The sudden realization that it is a Hyderabad co, promoter stake is low, etc…is invalid as these cards were on the table before you decided to enter the stock.
Disclosure : Continue to hold and increase my shareholding every quarter.
It was a meticulously executed pump-dump over two quarters by a Gujarat based brokerage and Calcutta exchange. Together the two acquired and disposed off approx. 5% … This can be seen through the SHP’s. This happens more often of late: inherently reasonable companies [ unlike shells/ scams] with a huge potential are run-up in this way.
Disclosure : I am invested and raising the holding intermittently…
Again I would beg to differ.
- When u do a pump and dump u ensure your name doesn’t come anywhere. Not in SHP or bulk deal…basic precaution.
- Selling a stock when it runs ahead of fundamentals is not dumping, its the prudent thing to do.
- Taking a share to highs and then selling is not pump and dump…its business. Altogether legal. It becomes unethical when you convince 500 other people to buy it and sell yourself.
- A typical p&d doesn’t give investors a chance to exit also. Intense hit multiple upper circuits even on its way down with huge volume, thereby giving exit opportunities.
- every stock fall is not a pump and dump. If so, then Sun pharma is the biggest p&d of our times.
Caution for buyers…this may not be the time for Buyers to do bottom fishing in Intense Tech…long term technical suggest that the stock is headed to much lower levels…just have a look at the quarterly chart…
Oh c’mon mehnaz. This was the last thing we needed to be told. The prophecy that hopes to fulfil the very prophecy. The cause and effect cycle.
Your point that all selling is not pump-dump and that selling when price overshoots fundamentals
is business : is fine as universals. Particular for Intense : The same SHP’s over 6 months shows one more in-percentage investor : i3. i3 sold around 50% at the highs; I remember the percentage retained : 1.3%
This looks like a business decision. But the Marwari Brokerage and Calcutta Exchange action, for me, falls in the category of an orchestrated move, a hype and sell. Knowing the Marwari network from Kutch to Kolkotta, this is how I read the situation. All HYPE is not at high decibels…
I agree that I have been quite late in my post but this is not intended for those who are already invested in Intense. Its meant for those on the outside, trying to catch a falling knife. I feel that there was a pump and dump in intense tech…or atleast there was massive distribution at the top. The stock kept giving exit signals and the clearest exit signal was @ 155…
Intense may be a fundamentally good stock. Those who like the fundamentals of this company should keep a watch on it for signs of reversal below a price of 60…that’s when the risk reward ratio turns favourable for the buyers.
Signals on quarterly charts are quite powerful…just have a look at another stock which had a steep fall after bearish divergence on quarterly chart…it kept going down and down till it reached its target…That’s the reason for me to caution new buyers against this falling knife. …just have a look at the chart of RS software…
I never tried my hand on the technical charts .After having a look at the last five years financials the share price charts both the companies -Intense Tech and RS software- reflects the trailing financial performance . I do not see the stock of Intense Technology comming down to Rs 45 levels or even Rs 60 levels . If it really does come down to these levels it forms a real good oppertunity for me to add further to my existing holding.
Any idea when the Q1 results will be announced?
Result is on 11th September
Here you go, disappointing quarterly numbers
Disc : Invested