A certain trend I have observed is that companies usually have more pressure to win orders than to be profitable to avoid idling of resources and assets. They have to pay employees , manage debt, save face in front of shareholders, get salary etc.
They end up taking losses till they cannot continue the show anymore. Is it possible that inox is doing the same.
May be INOX is only trying to stay afloat till they are acquired. There was a news that Rosatom is interested.
After having invested at levels of above 400 and averaged out from July
2015 and finally exited at 168 in around may 2017. I have learnt that
sectors may seem from outside having a lot of potential, but so much of
receivables, heavy dependence on regulations and the Indian customers or
distribution companies not ready to pay more per unit makes the business
not very attractive to an investor. When the state governments cancelled
existing power purchase agreements after first auction it was the beginning
of the end.
Both Suzlon and Inox Q2FY18 results are out. One thing to notice is their order books and market shares. Looks like both have about 25% each of the total SECI bids so far (and maybe safe to assume Gamesa has a lionâs share of the rest).
Wind Order book as of 30/9/17
Another 4.5 GW of auctions expected in H2FY18. Assuming Inox is able to maintain this share in the forthcoming auctions in H2FY18, then another 1100MW gets added till end of this fiscal. so, total is 1500-1600MW.
Assume:
Ballpark 5.5 Cr/MW pricing for the WTGâs.
Net Margins (conservatively) of even 10% (average NPM FY11-FY17 is about 12%) to account for margin contraction due to the lower tariffs
Net Profit ~ 770 Cr.
Assume Price = 14x earnings, Market Cap ~ 10700 Cr
Current Market Cap ~ 3000 Cr
Even if you assume lower market shares and margins, there is still a lot of undervaluation reflecting the negative sentiments surrounding wind sector right now. But if one were convinced that the right steps, albeit painful, have been taken by the govt to make this industry stand on its own feet rather than always depend on SOPs and subsidies, then there is a potential to take a contrarian view.
The main risks according to me:
Technology - Gamesa/Suzlon WTGâs have better LCOEâs so in a game of sliding prices have an advantage. But beats me how Inox is able to outbid other WTG manufacturers in the auctions. Is its cost of production really the lowest as claimed by mgmt and is it enough to offset the better PLFâs from Gamesa and Suzlon? Else it is just undercutting its margins in desperation to win business. We will get to know once FY19 financials start playing out I guess.
Inox has won market share because it has outbid others in the auctions. It still has to find buyers for the project since it claims to be a WTG manufacturer only and has sold its wind farms business earlier. So far the company claims it has been able to sell the first 250MW it won in SECI 1.
Disc - Invested in Inox, but from a much higher level, so currently still holding on despite significant losses on this counter.
Found this news byte on the internet regarding Gamesa. It is also facing similar challenges in India and post take over mgmt churn.
https://www.ft.com/content/ff1ccdd4-c330-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656
Also, the following link gives some counter views from Gamesa India Head on reverse auctions as well as potentially what drove the lower bids in SECI 2
When the state governments cancelled the PPAs, is there no legal recourse for companies like Inoz Wind and Suzlon ? Or the PPAs have clauses to exit at anytime ?
It can never stand in a court of law. However, if IPPâs do end up challenging them in court, it ends up in a long protracted battle and a distraction for everyone. The unfortunate part is that the Govt has not done enough to step in and restore confidence of the investors in Wind Power. So its a bit murky, but clearly the law is definitely not on the side of the State Discoms.
What is required is a framework so that the older WTGâs that form part of the older PPAâs and installed in Tier 1 windy sites, can be replaced with the latest technology with better LCOEâs. Win win for everyone. Hopefully that gets sorted out eventually.
I donât know what you guys are fretting over. Andhra cabinet has passed a resolution for implementation of earlier PPA overruling the objection from State discomsâŠand Karnataka govt has over ruled the state regulator which refused to accept PPA based tariffâŠ
Both of the above have been widely reported in newspapers tooâŠ
So when the problem is resolved, then why fret over itâŠ
Thanks I had not read about it. That definitely helps bring some order into the market.
On a separate note, do you know what is the tenure of these PPAâs?
âI think it would be prudent to wait and watch for a couple of quarters to
see the impact of the SECI auctions on the margins. If the company has bid
very aggressively to maintain market share at the cost of margins, then
itâs not good from an investment perspective.
Thanks for pointing this out. However if this was the case, then the order book of these companies would have gone up again, which does not seem to be the case.
Also, from the link that @kauban has posted, it seems that the state government order only over-rules part of the orders (Out of 599 MW signed PPAs, only 270.5 MW which has been executed before 31 Mar 2017, will be honoured at old price). So while this is definitely some relief, it is still not enough to restore confidence of the companies to invest in India if there are such uncertainties.
Two bidders, namely Adani Green Energy and KCT Renewable Energy Private Limited, quoted the L1 tariff of âč2.85 (~$0.043)/kWh to develop 75 MW of wind projects each.
Inox Wind, Mytrah Energy, and Hero Wind Energy Private Limited quoted a tariff of âč2.86 (~$0.044)/kWh. While Inox Wind won the bid to develop 50 MW, Mytrah Energy Private won the bid to develop 100 MW and Hero Wind Energy Private Limited won the bid to develop 75.60 MW.
BREAKING: Winning Bids of âč2.85-2.87/kWh Quoted in MSEDCLâs 500 MW Wind Auction
The MSEDCL had fixed âč3/kWh ($0.047) as the upper tariff ceiling for this tender
Nice article on Wind energy economicsâŠ
During concall for q3fy18 management said we have project site inventory of more than 5000 mw.
As per todayâs press release they have order book of 950 mw.
What is management saying here?
the 5000 MW is the total land bank that Inox has (in terms of MW), whereas the order book is the WTG supply orders that they have secured. where is the confusion?
KR-Chokseyâs reports on Inox wind & other stocks. Refer Page 22 & 23 for detail analysis.
SECI would invite bid for 2000 MW Hybrid Project (Wind+Solar)
