Sir
What do you think about pnb result. Can a psu bank go under
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@hitesh2710 IIFL has been on downtrend for sometime now. I don’t see anything fundamentally wrong, results have been good. Any comments from you on the downtrend?
MOSL also has been on downtrend. Seems more due to Aspire’s performance in the past quarters. Otherwise results are good and there is some improvement in NPA in Q4.
Would like to know your technical view on both IIFL and MOSL.
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Hi Hitesh Sir,
If i want to invest in pharma sector funds now, what could be some indicators to get a good entry point (which might show that pharma is near or has undergone a turn-around).
Thanks
I have HB stockholding and it is suspended due to procedural reasons(company demerger) yrsterday it reported extremely ugly Q4 result. Can someone suggest me how to exit this counter,or what would be the future of such stocks? Feeling trapped,please help.
Hello Hitesh,
Just wanted to know your view on Sequent Scientific(pure-play animal health company)
This company look to be on turnaround. sharing from bits of information.
P/E: 3.42 , Book Value: ₹ 57.76 , 10% dividend after a gap of 6 years
Sales , Manufacturing cost , Material Cost are improving, while OPM is some what consistent from being negative in 2013 and 2014.
Major concern for me is Other Income in TTM, After checking Q4 results this gain look like to be from disposal of assets /settlement of liabilities of discontinued operations
But if you check operating profit from on QoQ basis there is improvement in last two years. Even after excluding one time gain.
Q4 Result
http://www.sequent.in/pdf/financial/2017-2018/Q_4_Fy18.pdf
Investor Presentation
http://www.sequent.in/pdf/presentations/SSL_Earnings_Presentation_VF.pdf
Vivek Vikram Singh
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@santhozp Even a casual look at both IIFl and MOSL charts shows that both stocks are on a downtrend. If one is convinced about the story and wants to buy its better to buy in a staggered manner or alteast allow the stock price to show some strength and then take a dip.
MOSL corrected from 1500 plus to 900 odd levels currently. IIFL has formed something like a double top around 870-874 levels and breached the support zones around 685.
The only company in the sector which seems to be holding up till now is Edelweiss which is around 310. But I dont like the structure it is forming too.
Insipte of stellar results most of these brokerage/financialisation of savings companies are correcting. I dont know whats wrong with them but price action seems to be weak in response to results.
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I had a look at sequent performance after its results posted recently. The presentation gives a lot of detail about its business and transition and target to be a pure play animal health company going forward having disposed off its human API business.
What irked me in the first place was the kind of blunders management committed in taking the business forward. Too many acquisitions and demergers and so on . Even now they acquired a company in Germany ?Bremmer for getting a foothold in Europe. It needs to be seen how they maintain the momentum shown in the recent quarter.
Price correction has been severe from 165 odd levels to current levels of 50-60 and after a long time it closed at around 60 with some strength.
Its in my watchlist but not bought yet. Want to have a deeper look.
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@sarthakkumar19_ The pharma sector still seems to be in the dumps. Even stocks holding up like ajanta, alembic etc are now correcting.
Better wait some more time before all the dust settles. Or else take a very cautious SIP approach and have a staggered buy strategy.
I have seen that whenever a sector in favor goes out of favor it takes a very very long time to make a comeback.
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Hi @hitesh2710 . Do you give any importance to 50 day/200 day moving averages?. Are they effective?. I was wondering if this can be used for fundamental based long term buying. (So that we can avoid buying early).
I dont follow this 50/200 day moving avgs closely but keep 200 day moving avg as one of the parameters I look at while evaluating a stock technically. But I know a lot of technical guys who give a lot of importance to the golden crossand death cross.
I give a lot of importance to the patterns like flag, cup and handle, inverted head and shoulders etc.
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Probably same story with parent Strides sashun?
Macro developments are difficult to correlate to stock market movements. e.g I have been reading since a long time about US bond yields going up and people expecting markets to correct. Some day the market will correct but I dont know when. Atleast based on macro I find it difficult to invest.
The more relevant parameter has been observing the signs of froth in the markets. It was clearly visible in Jan-Feb 2018 when most stocks went up 10-20-30% for no reason. Even guys like Porinju appearing on TV to declare their picks sent stock prices soaring.
Now it appears that frenzy for small-midcaps has abated and things seem to be more saner.
The preferred place in market seems to be large caps and the stronger baskets within. There seems to be apathy to small and midcaps barring a few stocks and a few days when there are some noticeable bounces. I cant make out too much froth in the small-midcap space but some companies in the space even after corrections still appear expensive with respect to their financials.
If one can keep turning up stones, there is the odd jewel to be found and thats where I Feel currently we might be in a stock pickers market.
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Hi @hitesh2710
Hitesh, i remember when i first initially invested in Ajanta, you said they had some good products in dermatology as that was your area of specialization.Do they still continue to deliver first to launch products in the domestic market or are they bringing out anything different.
Since you are from Baroda, any thoughts on Alembic. Both of them seem to be spending good amount of money on R&D. Iam just asking from a doctors perspective. Do patients and doctors believe in brands. is there a difference in the medicine between a torrent pharma product and another XYZ for the same generic.
Hi Hitesh,
What’s your take on Allsec results.
Though its HRO and BPO businesses seemt to be doing well, the revenue from AML seems to have dried up, atleast for now.
Also, the hiring for AML seems to have dried up (based on job posting in portals).
@hitesh2710: How do you view the results of HCL Infosystem ?
The net profits (loss) have nosedived maybe due to impairment of learning vertical ?
Distribution vertical revenues are good, but overall results seems bad. Your take on it ?
Hello hitesh sir.how to know the market size of particular product of companies.for example 1.tiles sanitary 2.v board( panel board) ect and how to calculate how much a company can garner share from industry size in next atleast 5 years
one very good tool is google trends, it shows market size and demands i use it quite often to show demands / interests
Hiteshbhai,
What is our view on Interglobe aviation? The opportunity size is big and that makes this stock attractive in my mind. However, industry is capital intensive and company has high borrowing on balance sheet. I am not sure whether it can sustain high RoCE for long term. Also, not sure how their new focus on international market would affect their profitability. Would like to know your thoughts.
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Ajanta still seems to be coming out with good new first time in India products though I dont track them very closely nor do I meet their representatives too much.
Regarding Alembic it is one of the few companies which has remained well compliant with USFDA audits. In their last visit the fda guys gave 3 minor observatioins which are likely to be resolved easily.
Both Ajanta and Alembic have invested a lot in building assets by expansions. With a dip in demand these companies are likely to see a compression in their return ratios which is often a trigger for de rating. I think that’s what is going on with correction in stock prices of both companies. Besides a string of mediocre results.
At the risk of sounding like a broken string, I would like to reiterate that whenever a sector which was a market darling loses favor with the markets it takes a very long time for the sector to make a comeback. Even if we were smart enough to catch the precise bottom, these stocks are likely to spend a lot of time in consolidation within a range. I still feel its prudent to be lightweight on the sector rather than trying to be too clever and be a contrarian. In contrarian investing we have to be a contrarian and more importantly right.
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HCL Info results have been poor. The deals to get rid of their non core assets also seems to be faltering.
The technical picture which I had expected is not playing out.
Neither is the fundamental picture. Important lesson learnt is to stay away from hope stocks in a market which doesnt fancy small and midcaps.
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