Can you share your views specifically on insurance and hospitals. Many stocks in these sectors fundamentally went no where in last few years. Some like Bajaj finserv and Kovai med did well.
Not tracking this off late.
@hitesh2710 @Prdnt_investor
Hi Hitesh, Rudra,
Eris has extraordinary ex-cash ROCE and is good operating leverage play. Though they have small revenue of 750 crore, their sales growth is not great.
How do you see revenue or market size opportunitities, competition ease in acute(33%) and chronic(66%) diseases market.
- Is 750cr recenue small or big as compared to market size/growth of chronic/acute diseases in future ?
- Is it easy to compete in this particular market that big players will easily impact revenue growth of eris ?
@trilok why donât you start an IPO thread and carry on this discussion. Letâs not hijack this thread.
Coming back to your questions:
-
They are ranked 32 by IPM market share and have only 0.7% market share. So huge opportunity to grow from here. While sales have grown at 14% in last year, EBITDA and PAT cagr are 26% and 33%.
-
Eris derives 98% of sales from branded formulations and is backed by very strong brands specially in Cardio which are growing at 2X market size. They have acquired 2 companies in 2016 and have huge cash chest ready for future inorganic growth.
As discussed before the fundamentals are excellent, but IPO is very expensive. An investor needs to decide on their investment horizon and growth expectations and decide accordingly. Thanks.
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Trilok,
At current juncture with pharma sector reeling under headwinds I am not interested in Eris. And on first glance it does appear very expensive compared to other good companies with proven track record in the field.
IPOs of good companies interest me only in bear markets. Thats where good companies are available at attractive prices. In the current market scenario with sentiments sky high, I would tend to avoid IPOs altogether.
17 Likes
@hitesh2710
Sorry Hitesh Bahi for repeated question, but I felt that I asked my original question in wrong way and hence not able to get desired answer.
Let me rephrase my question.
âPharma sector is going under bad phase but ofcourse at some point it will breakout. I want to take full advantage of that. Since pahrma is defensive I donât mind putting significant portfolio to pharma. So which top 5 pharma stocks(irrespective of domestic/international I donât care) should I closely track in order take full advantage of overall pharma sector breakout(whenever it takes place)â
@hitesh2710 Have you looked at Zota Healthcare? Listed at expensive valuations. But as a business with no FDA exposure, exports to africa/latam and ayurvedic medicines, does it look at interesting to you?
Thanks.
In pharma sector u can keep an eye on the top few companies like sun, lupin, dr reddys, cadila etc. divis can be an interesting contra bet. All of the above except cadila are currently reeling under regulatory issues and there is no timeline assurances in terms of resolution of these problems.
Again I would like to reiterate my view that the pharma bull run which began somewhere in 2008-09 seems to be taking a rest/might be over.
Its always difficult to maintain high conviction when price doesnt move in your favor for long periods of time.
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Srinivasan,
Torrent pharma seems fairly valued in view of the derating the whole sector has gone through. It seems to have done quite well in the Brazil and Germany markets.
Technically one needs to watch out for key supports of 1190-1200 levels. A decisive breach of these levels would take the stock price much lower.
Thank you for your immediate response
I am holding from Rs 1500 level. will wait for 1200 support level to add
Hello Hiteshji,
What is your view on Aurobindo Pharma at current valuations.
Hi Hitesh Bhai,
I have question on International Pharma companies. Please ignore it if I am asking you irrelvant question.
Typically perception in Indian market about MNC is they will sell ordinary products through Indian listed entity but will sell popular products through private entity and hence Indian investors donât prefer investment in listed MNC , though there are few exceptions like Nestle.
Since MNC pharma invest heavily on R&D in their respective countries, I guess they are unlikely to sell branded products through Indian listed companies. So which are better Indian listed Pharma MNCs that have history of selling almost all products through Indian listed entities only(like Nestle)
@sagarbhadury, I dont track aurobindo too closely.
@trilok, Among Indian listed MNC pharma cos, GSK Pharma has good products from parent and I think it doesnt have any unlisted subsidiary in the pharma space. Other interesting MNC players could be Abbott, Sanofi, Merck. I dont have exact details of which companies in MNC pharma space listed in India have other unlisted subsidiaries. But I think GSK Pharma doesnt have any other subsidiaries.
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Hi Hiteshji
Can you please let me know of your thoughts on Syngene. After the fire incident, it has been trending lower and market seems to be discounting something. They posted decent results despite the fire incident and I am pretty sure they will get insurance payout as well. So any thoughts on this?
Cheers
G1
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Hi Hiteshji,
Are you holding DHFL? Also could you explain why it has such a huge Debt to Equity ratio and is it a cause for worry?
hitesh sir,
instead of one or 2 pharma stock, I would like to buy pharma mutual fund like reliance pharma or sbi pharma fund for 4 years view.
what is your opinion,
please suggest.
regards,
paturi
If you are really keen on Pharma as a sector, i would suggest go with Pharma theme and invest in Taurowealth⌠The primer consists of atleast 10 / 12/ 15 pharma stocks depending whether you are aggressive/ balanced or conservative investor. All your money is concentrated in just about these many stocks unlike a mutual fund where money is invested in about 40 odd stocks. All the primers in Taurowealth.com have beaten down all mutual fund investments in the last 3 years of bull run
Disclosure:- Iâm not associated with Taurowealth.com in any way. I have actual account and have invested in various primers and Iâm happy with it.,
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@g1, I dont follow syngene.
@jstocks, I dont hold or track DHFL.
@paturi choudhary, If u are too keen on a pharma fund the least you can do is do SIP sort of investment in the fund you choose so that u give enough time for the issues plaguing the sector to abate. Personally I would avoid the sector altogether till I see some signs of recovery either technically or fundamentally. My theory is that a sector which has been in a roaring bull run from 2009 to 2016 would take some time to consolidate and then only attempt a strong rally. You might very well see the ocassional 20-40% bump up in some stocks or in the sector but my view is that another sectoral bull run might be some time away.
disc; I dont hold any pharma stocks and my views might be biased.
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