Hawkins Cookers : Is growth coming back?


(Nikhil Rodrigues) #322

I would not call it game over for Hawkins. Whenever economy starts improving and consumer demand comes back, TTK and Hawkins will do well. But in my opinion days of 20% sales growth will not come back for Hawkins. It will grow sales at 10-12% which is historical norm for it.

That makes it conservative dividend paying player. Provided you manage to get it at right price. The current PE and price is too high to pay for business which has shown de-growth for last 5 years and expectations of 10-15% growth for next 5 years.


(PP) #323

The 10-12% growth has been achieved in the last 5 years, only by letting margins fall … So, the question does arise as to how sustainable is such growth…

Of course, if the economy booms - then it will be a different story… But then, if the economy booms - I guess there are lots of other businesses which can harness that better…

Yeah, totally surprised by the valuations…


(zulfiqar) #324

any one attending agm today


(Ashish) #325

India Non Electric Kitchen Appliances Market to Grow at 12% Until 2020 Concludes TechSci Research Study


#326

Many folks have complained that mgmt. is not very communicative but the real question needs to be asked do they have anything to communicate? They have hardly changed working capital mgmt. or dividend policy to make space for sales growth. Qtrly results are sinking every quarter while they keep increasing overheads like advertisement, R&D or dealer expense. I have said earlier also these guys have under invested in their business over the last decade or two which keeps RoCE and RoE inflated. Probably they don’t need to after having taken outsourcing route.


(reacher) #327

Old man’s speech is now out - What character ! what defiance ! Time will now tell !


(c.t.sreenath) #328

I agree that the chairman speaks with amazing clarity year after year.

  • But all his focus is on the super saturated cookers market

  • The all new products/ innovations that will satisfy consumer needs promised in the preceding years seem to be just variations of the cooker! He was so super secret with the ‘new products’. Reason given was he did not want competitors to know( about his new super cookers). At one point he said "Never before in Hawkins history have we launched so many new products ". IMHO this is misleading .

  • Still talks of how people prefer Hawkins over other cookers. Its agreed that Hawkins quality is superior but he doesn’t seem to take any note of the fact that so many competitors are eating into its market share & its losing to the so called unbranded cookers. He Doesn’t even acknowledge the threat posed by them.

  • TV ads : Has any one seen them in main stream media yet? His budget is too miserly to create any sort of impact.

  • His final end game/nirvana is word of mouth promotion about his superior products. Someone caught in time wrap? Maybe if their ‘new product’ the pressure cooker “BENDS” the way iPhone does, it will create some sort of word of mouth publicity.

Disclosure : A disgruntled investor who exited with minimal profits but with severe opportunity cost.


(zulfiqar) #329

this same that he mentioned last year. He always says the same thing


#330

Don’t think statements regarding new products is from this year’s AGM. Point to note that last year’s unfinished business of launching new products is not even started in serious manner and they are wondering about increasing sales and that too by they by way of waiting. Folks thought son-in-law will bring some dynamism but looks all hope should be postponed till this old man is out. :disappointed:


(reacher) #331

did anyone (anyone ) attend the agm ? kindly please post some tit bits (anything)- i have no information and am in the dark…pl show kindness in posting if you attended the agm


(Nikhil Rodrigues) #332

My friends attended AGM. They said that chairman’s speech (available on Hawkins site now) covers everything. Management was more relaxed this time since Kolkata based Hawkins poster boy was not there to ask pointed questions.

Chairman affirmed his belief that Hawkins is still No 1 in cookers. Not much was mentioned regarding new products.


#333

ha ha ha good one! They must be free of any performance pressure without BM. This confirms my hypothesis that they have nothing much to share. The promoter family is happy milking dividends without worrying about growth as this is NOT their fault. you see this is unfavorable economy!


(gautham1) #334

here is the headline of chairman speech for the last 4 years.
2015: growing demand
2014: design and development of new products
2013: the race between supply and demand
2012: getting through hard times
2011: the limits to growth
i remember a few people were emotional after reading 2012 speech.


(reacher) #336

30% jump in eps from 23.3 to 30.14 :ok_hand:


(richdreamz) #337

There has been decrease of advertising expenses by 3 crore when compared to last year same quarter otherwise the EPS jump would have been lower had they continued to spend on advertising.

But this lower ad spend might result in lower sales growth in future? I’m not sure.

Good that at least the sales have more or less remained flat for this quarter (QoQ). Still sales growth of 10%-15% is not coming. TTK showed better sales growth.

I don’t hold Hawkins, this is my passing observation on the results.


(Raj) #338

They take a 5-6% price hike every year. In spite of this if the sales are flat it means they did de-grow.


(reacher) #339

I expect full year eps to be 71 with a dividend of Rs.60.Traditionally Hawkins has enjoyed PE superiority over TTK . Sales jump must start happening from Q3 onwards.Co seems to me to be on right track.


(reacher) #340

is it a possibility that Hawkins is consciously trying to position itself as a premium kitchen appliances co sacrificing sales for higher npm and higher return ratios with a view to position itself attractively for a willing suitor who could be a global premium player in the same space ?


#341

IMO they don’t have an option to go for volume led model. Working cap mgmt. will be too much of a distraction for them


(reacher) #342

seems that everyone has lost interest in this company.will recent govt servants pay hike impact rural pressure cooker demand ? has aluminium prices helped hawkins ? how has the recent diwali sales been ? will valuations for gandhimati give some indication to hawkins’ valuations ? lastly will the old man keep to his word in last agm of taking care of demand ( as he took care of supply 2 years back ) ? lastly will this co be sold ( is some back channel talks happening ) ? lastly is anyone in this forum still invested in this co ?
disclosure invested at higher levels ( with pain no gain )