Congratulations Dhwanil sir…
Thank you all for your words of encouragement and wonderful wishes. VP has been the cornerstone of my learning and investment philosophy. The collaborative approach of VP platform has inspired many of us and has helped up refined our investment philosophy/framework. Stalwarts on this forum like Donald, Ayush, Hiteshbhai - have been instrumental in my journey so far. Not only have I gained knowledge from VP, but also have made many lifelong friends. So, grateful to all who have contributed to the journey.
Congratulations Dhwanil Desai.
You are one of the most celebrated top contributors of VP Community. Wish you more success and good luck!
Congrats Dhwanil. Glad to be part of ValuePickr Forum and learn from many great value investors.
Congratulations Dhwanil !
Congratulations Dhwanil for the special mention in ET! Learning a lot from your generous sharings at VP. Wishing very best for bright future.
Congratulations Dhwanil Sir!
Great achievement Dhwanil. Many congratulations!
Hi @desaidhwanil , Can you please share your thoughts on Jubilant foodworks ? Can it transform from turnaround story to a growth story?
First thing first. Jubilant has staged a great comeback over last 5-6 quarters and with growth coming back, the beauty of the operating leverage in the business model is getting unleashed. Having said that, I feel 26% SSG reported in q4 is due to 1) Lower base last year 2) price increase taken due to GST input tax credit withdrawn 3) tailwinds for QSR sector and 4)Everyday value offer. Out of these 4 factors, the first 2 factors are one time, while the remaining two may stay there for little longer as Jubilant has launched everyday value offer for Rs.99 for regular pizza (last year the same was offered for medium size pizza @199 onwards). Thus, I feel, it will be prudent to expect SSG moderating to low to mid double digits.
Secondly, FY 18 saw very moderate new store opening. This is one of the reasons why margins got fillip as the initial cost and losses of new stores are not loaded onto P&L while mature stores generate much higher EBIDTA. Management has indicated increased pace of store addition in FY 19 and thus it will have impact on margins.
Thus, I feel we are at peak of margins and SSG growth in q4 FY 18 and it may trend down a bit on both front going forward. Thus,my expectation is topline growth of around 20% (13-15% coming from SSG while 5-7% coming from new store additions) while margins at best will be stable. Thus, we are looking at 20-22% bottomline growth. I think, at this price, the growth seems more than fully priced.
My take, growth for Jubilant has many legs but the valuations are not supportive. Caveat here is that I have gone wrong umpteen times so take my views with pinch of salt!!
With online/home delivery orders increasing new stores growth may slow down and same store growth will improve further. In UAE Delivery business is 80% of the total sales for QSR. This reduces opex and capex.
What is your assessment on TD power post Q4 results . It seems that positive management commentary is not reflective in Q4 earning especially @ consolidated level … It seems to be stuck in 400 - 500 crs TO range and declining margins & cash balances YOY . Add to woes finance cost is also increasing . Am I missing something
Disc : Tracking with a very small position .
TD power q4 results are mostly along the expected lines, as indicated by the management, close to 390-400 crore from product business for FY 18 and with 8-9% margins. Now, they have met with the topline numbers while margins have been a bit lower due to higher copper prices. I think, management positive commentary was always about FY 19 and FY 18 numbers were expected to be flattish. So, it is not results that has spooked the market. The reason for TD power to take a beating may be that in q3, mgmt gave indication of very strong order inflows in q4 and hence strong growth in FY 19. However, in q4, they seem to suggest that order inflow is delayed in couple of segments and hence the revenue from that segment may not be part of FY 19. Generally,mgmt has been very balanced in giving guidance in the past and have depicted a realistic picture of business/industry. However, businesses as such and capital goods in particular has lot of dependencies and moving parts. So, it is quite likely that situation may have changed in a quarter (and if you listed to concall, he has elaborated on reason for change). The only complain that one can have against management is that they were early to give outlook without having orders in hand. However, that does not mean the business outlook has turned negative. In fact, from the commentary in q4 which is negatively perceived by market, my feel was that barring potential headwind on RM side, the business is witnessing green shoots (they got orders in western european market, domestic market is seeing revival after many years, gas/hydro market outlook has not changed, though the orderflow is delayed , Turkey market they got their first order after some time, in India). While all this is happening, market seems to be sensing that they are into a bottomless pit.
My central thesis around TD Power is that it is near the bottom of the business cycle along with strong balance sheet, good management and good product. Market is factoring in the valuation based on the current business environment. Typically in such situations, It is difficult to time the reversal in demand and hence if one is comfortable with business/valuation, one may enter and bide the time till business cycle turns.
Discl: I am holding TD Power in portfolio and hence my views may be biased. It is not an investment advise/recommendation. Please do your due diligence and/or consult investment adviser before making an investment decision.
Thanks Dhawnil and I am on agreement with your central thesis.
I went through transcript . Management is hopeful for turnaround but they see problems in Hydro and Gas segment and their pending order in export has shrunk considerably over last year ( March 2017 ) .
Request you to throw light/ your views on following Nos in Q4 …
50% increase in short term borrowing - Seems that there working capital cycle is elongated
Sharp fall in other income from 6 cr to 0.98 crs . This is huge in context of Rs 3 crore PAT.
Discl. Still hold a small tracking position