This is Rajeev ji’s discovery.
I entered around 100 levels 
Company can probably do a close to 15 eps for fy16 so trading at 20x current year. Ratio’s are improving, revenue predictability has improved for next 2-3 years so that might be fuelling the re-rating ?
2 things which we don’t have much clue about are 1. Other orders which might be cooking up 2. Any takeover talks.
I entered around 200 
I agree with your estimate for fy 16 guidance of EPS, my estimate is also close to Rs 16/17.
Earnings visibility is pretty strong and return ratios improving day by day.
Promoter is highly ethical and passionate about business.
I will classify as still under owned/undiscovered (to some extent)
Mkt will wait for several quarters to assign a v high PE.
As some analyst start discounting Fy17 EPS etc then, it can be again re rated.
Take over talks may be wishful thinking or market rumours.
In the long run, it has a potential to really surprised on higher side.
disc : invested, view are biased.
Raj,
I think it will be fair to say that we helped each other build conviction along with all the other valuepickrs who chipped in as well. Valuepickr is all about collectively contributing to each others success!
As stock pickers, we know only too well that there are always lingering doubts to any investment thesis, & it is at such times that we may be helping each other perhaps without even realizing!
I do believe that some very smart investors are beginning to find Cupid attractive even at current levels, so hang in there guys, Cupid looks like it’s headed higher! Having said that, a bit of profit booking along the way may not be such a bad idea, but then to each, his own.
Looks like few institutions have started accumulating it and its time to Sit Tight. Few observations about the company.
Its operating in oligopoly industry having huge scalability.
Has assets light model with 60%+ ROE and potential high dividend yield in future
Has high Moat as it is highly cost competitive with cost price as low as 25% of its only competitor (FHC). Operating cost is also significantly lower.
Promotor is an intelligent fanatic with very sound Knowledge about industry and looks to be an honest person
Growth ahead: Female Health Company(FHC) sells ~60 mn units and cupid current rate is ~15 mn. Cupid is in the process of doubling its capacity to 40 mn and looking at its cost competitiveness & market penetration, it is quite possible that cupid may be able to reach to the annual run rate of 40 mn units in 3-5 year time. Profits could be higher than sales growth due to higher margins in FC, management efforts to increase automation & efficiency, operating leverage etc.
Valuation:Still trading at just 20x FY16E with zero institutional holding. We all know that if market starts believing in the growth story with excellent return ratio. PE multiple has no limits (e.g Eicher, Page, etc)
So Patience to Hold would be key in this story.
Hello all. Will be meeting Mr. Om Garg, most probably next week. Please let me know if you have any questions.Thanks
@sagararya
That’s wonderful.
I have following queries:-
Many Thanks!
Disc : Invested.
Sagararya,
1.Wiki says Cupid female condom is currently undergoing clinical trials to gain approval by the FDA.
What is the progress on this front?
2. It also mentions, A recent version of the female condom is made by Medtech Products Ltd, India, and its also in trial phase and one more trial is required to get approval, so what will be the impact on orders n other factors if competitors get FDA approval?
( if any of the above are already solved plz brief on the same)
here is d link
Thank you for sharing and taking extra efforts to meet management, so we can all asks our queries.
Disc- Invested
Mr Garg indicated that they are planning to start branding initiatives and have got various estimates for the same. However, they will be cautious in spending large amount at one go due to small size of the company.
They are also planning to increase automation and improve efficiency in order to reduce cost and smooth execution of the orders as they are entering the big league now and ready to grab large orders as and when opportunity arise.
They are expected to start production of new product(Lubricant) from Jan 2016 onwards.
Regarding the orders, they are getting small orders frequently. They have recently got small orders/inquiry from Zimbabwe, Kuwait, UAE, Euthopia etc.
@ravijain88
Thanks for the prompt reply. I appreciate it!
Any clue on today’s rally by Cupid, Anyone!
I think it is getting rerated…due to strong earning visibility…
and also as per recent management interview …next few quarters result will be very good…
may be it is getting discounted future earnings…
what a specatucular run since its results announcement…
I have read the BSE clarification provided by Cupid yesterday night and thought to myself, Mr. Garg, do not worry, this is called market re-rating. Typically re-rating will be ferocious and will be over even before people realise. This re-rating was expected after the Q2 results were announced as indicated in my earlier post that several factors are improving in company’s favour.
Disclosure: I hold Cupid and I’m biased.
BSE announcement:
Cupid Ltd has informed BSE that :
“In the interest of keeping with good corporate governance practices and to keep the public shareholders informed, we would like to clarify that the Company is not aware of the reason of this increase in the price. Further, there is no information / announcement (including impending announcement), which in our opinion, may have a bearing on the operation / performance of the Company or on the price behavior in the scrip including any price sensitive information and which are not disclosed to the Stock Exchange.”
This is as per new SEBI circuit limits where a stock listed only in BSE could move up x% in a week, month, quarter and year:
http://securitiesstocks.net/article/5403188940/bse-to-introduce-stringent-circuit-filter-norms/
Divi, You are warned to refrain from giving price targets of the stock. This is in violation to SEBI rules for the forum We do not encourage the same. Repeating the same mistake may lead to suspension from the forum.
@manish962…pls read carefully Divi is not giving any price target…just updating the forum about the maximum price limits under the new rules of BSE… this information is valuable for fellow boarders…
i agree with zidane … divi have just mentioned the price bands where it can move.
there should flexibility in this forum for expression of views , ideas , technical or statistical details.
Abhishek, The deleted post reads “from here on we may expect it to double by end Sept.2016” is what is objectionable. May be his wordings are not right. He has given similar price targets in other thread also.
Vijay18, There is a thin line between the technical/statistical details and the price targets. The idea of the stringent rules of the forum is meant to protect the novice investors from getting carried away. Hope you understand the same.
Manish…
Your point is noted…
Your intent may be good but the wordings reflects wrong message. Please correct the same in future and oblidge. No harsh feelings.
I thought it is good to put the BSE link directly as there are many opinions flying around on the price bands:
http://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20150806-24
This link should provide the BSE notification.
An IMPORTANT point to note is the below line taken from the above NOTICE:
“In the event of any corporate action, the respective price of the security shall be adjusted as per the prescribed process.”
So, the price will NOT be capped but adjusted accordingly depending on any corporate action, if any.
I think as a part of the above process, price was capped on Friday and lower circuit changed to 10%. However, I believe Cupid will move back to its usual circuit limits +/- 20%.
Now, the important point is, there is no need to give UNDUE importance to these price bands - which are anyway applicable to many other stocks and are not in our control anyway - when you have enough conviction on the long term potential of the company. Cupid most likely will have multiple positive triggers like order wins, new product announcement (Lubricant Jelly) etc.
So, let us move back to fundamental discussion on the business!
