I’m not sure what you are implying here. I just calculated the actual returns. I didn’t mean anything by it, really.
Cupid Limited is pleased to announce that it has received an order worth INR 7.3 Cr
from UNFPA to supply Male Condoms to Zambia.
Not purchased from market but promoters received bonus shares
Received from management in response to my query:
- Cupid is planning to submit its approval for FC in Class II by Nov end.
- USFDA evaluation expected by Mar 2019.
- In the meantime, we are discussing with a marketing company in US to promote Cupid Female Condoms.
Really impressed by the quick reply from the company.
Q2 FY19 conference call on Nov 139747ca48-329b-4feb-aaf1-5d77aefd9527.pdf (173.1 KB)
Poor result by CUPID … Revenue , Profit is down on QOQ
Q2 result is not encouraging, Revenue, profit, dividend all are on lower side. Other expenses have seen a major uptick. Need to wait for concall on 13th
I was expecting atleast 16 crores bottom line. Looks like that too won’t happen. I’m expecting the same explanation in the concall:
- FDA in process for 2020.
- We are looking out for the CEO, haven’t found anyone capable yet since last 3 years.
- Raw material prices went up.
- We have put in bids for more orders, outcome will be clear in a few months.
Is this a value trap with following attractions:
- Healthy net margins
- Sound balance sheet
- Transparent but not scalable management
- Not aggressive
I think it’s unfair to expect linear growth from an order-based company like Cupid (Especially one which is a very small company). Every Concall, we are updated about the order book and future pipeline. So then, the only variable factor is the rate at which the execution is done (And of course, RM prices and other operational expenses).
I’m personally holding Cupid, not because it will report back-to-back superior profits, taking the stock through the roof. I’m holding it because, despite mediocre short-term performance, it has a good potential to scale up. It’s the quintessential ‘Heads I win, tails I don’t lose much’ kind of bet (At least to me personally).
With that said, I will be looking forward to the con-call as well, mostly interested on the line of the JV in South Africa, progress in Europe and possibilities in the USA.
As highlighted earlier , i think what cupid has is a good product in which it has managed to develop expertise at a technical level, however what it lacks ( in my view) is marketing it properly.
The govt based revenue stream is an optionality, but they need to create a market at a consumer facing level. That ofc is a tough tough job entailing steep costs and giving up of fat margins that they enjoy on govt orders, but it needs to be done.
There is also the question of raw material volatility which is significant in this line of business and that has to be mitigated. I like Cupid for what it has managed to achieve but they need a good ad agency and some gumption to grow their product.
Agreed. But without an energetic CEO, they can’t scale up. And it’s taking them way too long to install one.
I see that quite a few have wondered why the promoter holding went down in Q4 FY17 but just one or two found this to be red flag.
Here is an overview of the SHP
Promoter holding in Dec '16 was 48.46% and in Mar '17 was 44.87%. During this period Mr. Omprakash Garg transferred almost all his holdings (41.84 lakh shares) to Veena Garg and also sold 4 lakh shares to Elara India Opportunities Fund.
It must not have looked too bad as the shares were transferred to his wife and the other portion was picked up by an institutional investor. However, considering this was done in an euphoric bull market, I suspect the idea was to dispose off this 4 lakh shares at valuations the promoter considered excessive. End of March '17, Cupid was trading at 330.
This is precisely what happened as well because Elara sold 2/3rds in the next quarter and the rest in the quarter after that. This I think is disposal on behalf of the promoter. I know most will see nothing wrong with it, as there is nothing illegal in it. But if this was done by promoter directly through market transactions, it would have raised eyebrows immediately. Doing it this way was the in-thing last year as promoters of several companies, especially microcaps offloaded through similar means on unsuspecting retail.
See how the retail shareholding has moved in this company for eg. from 25% in Dec '15 to 37% in the recent quarter as big fish like Dushyant Poddar and Promoter/Elara offloaded heavy chunks onto them. That is a clear sign of distribution I think.
The company may have a decent business on its hands but it helps to understand what promoters themselves think of their business outside of what they say in interviews and concalls and nothing speaks more than actions like these.
The promoter himself is going to sever ties with the business soon and if I’m not wrong, mentioned in one of the earlier Concalls that he’s just in as an Acting CEO until they find a new one. Once again, if I’m not wrong, he has plans of settling in the US once that’s done (I can’t remember where I read this, but I’m sure I did).
In any other context, it would make sense to raise a question to the CEO regarding this. In this context, I don’t think it does. Heck, even if the CEO sold 10% more, I don’t think it would matter.
By the way, Mr. Garg is very honest and forthcoming. You should either listen to one or several of his Concalls or ask someone who’s visited the AGM in person.
In the earnings presentation, they’ve mentioned that theyre not going to be equity partners in the JV. The concall will need to throw more light especially becoz the JV was being touted as a future move to corner revenue.
I’m tempted to strike down the valuations from 190 cum bonus to around maybe 120 ex bonus assuming zero growth.
I couldn’t find the Presentation in BSE Announcements. Can you please help me with the link?
Sorry, it’s a media release, not a pptx
Any backup for such high expectation in Q2?
16 for the year my friend.
it was 17 last year!!!
If they meet the expected order completion for H2 of Rs. 51 Cr, even assuming this Quarter’s low Net Margins (20%), that’s a bottom-line of Rs. 10.20 for H2, making the yearly Net Profit Rs. 19.02 or about 12% Growth YoY. Of course, if being the operative statement.