Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!

As per the last con-call [(LINK)]

Cupid can comply US FDA requirements within 6 months !

1 Like
  1. When and whether they pass is a distant question considering 6 months is a long time.

  2. Can they take advantage of this license or will it be another competitive environment is a valid question in my opinion.

Are there any product addition/ diversification plans in place?

I think their product and track record might give them somewhat of a first mover advantage when dealing with distributors in the US. Not sure if this will benefit their contract/tender business.

Cupid has always has plenty of plans, but as I’ve learnt over the last 1+ years, there is plenty of execution risk. If I recall, they have planned to scale up their hand sanitisers, benzene wipes for premature ejaculation, vaginal hygiene products, consumer brands etc.

I really believe that the company has a lot of potential, but I’m not sure that the current CMD can unlock it. Perhaps Cupid should rechristen itself as a ‘start-up’ and start looking towards VCs for help.

1 Like

The FC2 (Veru) is the only company qualified for Female Condom feeling impact due to new US FDA re-classification of female condom

Currently, only one female condom—the FC2 Female Condom—is available in the U.S., and it is sold by prescription only. This new FDA ruling classifies the single-use internal condom as an over-the-counter (OTC) device, opening the door for greater access

From prescription product to OTC product increase accessibility and increase demand consumption in USA.
As Cupid production facilities have been approved by UNFPA / WHO, entering in USA market will not be tough. However, Cupid shall be proactive and focused approach to get first mover advantage!!

3 Likes

Hallelujah! For once, good news and good price have come together. This is surely a positive especially given that the South African economy is officially in a recession now and Brazil’s political situation is yet to settle down.

The six month time-line has never been clear to me – six months to what? Getting FDA’s approval? Breaking the first dollar? Both are optimistic in my view since launch cycles of healthcare products are longer and involve multiple steps.

Setting the processes as per FDA norms (this is more work than most companies think) --> inviting the FDA to approve the manufacturing processes --> beginning manufacturing and building inventory (assuming approval in first go) --> piecing together the distribution network, commercially and logistically --> building the brand presence to grab a share of the customer wallet. The last two steps can begin earlier but they still do take considerable time and money. Remember, Cupid has no presence in the U.S. Its India B2C experiment is yet to take off due to branding and distribution challenges so U.S. will not be a cake walk.

Maybe the product cycle is different for condoms – something that Cupid and the consultant they alluded to on their con call can throw more color on.

Either way, this requires boots on the ground and specialized management bandwidth. It will be very interesting to understand how the management plans to leverage this opportunity and what commercialization road map they put in place in terms of production, quality control, regulatory management, marketing, and distribution. I will not be surprised if they opt for specialized partners for some of these business operations. Might lower the margins to start with but will reduce time-to-market.

This is surely an opportunity for Cupid to break away from being an emerging market-focused B2B supplier to a developed market B2C company. Not easy to pull off but the upside potential is significant so getting the right people and partners on board should be priority #1.

2 Likes

Had dropped Cupid an email and got a very prompt response from the investor relations team

"Dear Sir,

We welcome the USFDA announcement.

Hopefully it will be confirmed by Oct end.

We expect, it will take about six months to get Cupid’s data evaluated after we submit these on Nov 1st 2018.

Impact on financial results will only be in FY 20.

Please note the same."

2 Likes

Cupid response to investors is always fast and never ignore any investor…this my personal experience also

1 Like

The record date for bonus is 12th October

1 Like

Board meeting note for other business matters

(My GUESS) Hope for good news - might be
(1) Agreement with distributor for B2C business
(2) Finding partner in USA for Female condom approval and marketing
(3) Condom tender as on date and future outlook

I wouldn’t try to speculate and read too much into the words of the announcement like a journalist until something concrete emerges. Some of those invested in this counter are high on hope with little or no corresponding changes on the ground…as far as the eyes can see.

I’m not sure what you are implying here. I just calculated the actual returns. I didn’t mean anything by it, really.

Cupid Limited is pleased to announce that it has received an order worth INR 7.3 Cr
from UNFPA to supply Male Condoms to Zambia.

6 Likes

Not purchased from market but promoters received bonus shares

1 Like

Received from management in response to my query:

  1. Cupid is planning to submit its approval for FC in Class II by Nov end.
  2. USFDA evaluation expected by Mar 2019.
  3. In the meantime, we are discussing with a marketing company in US to promote Cupid Female Condoms.

Really impressed by the quick reply from the company.

5 Likes

Q2 FY19 conference call on Nov 139747ca48-329b-4feb-aaf1-5d77aefd9527.pdf (173.1 KB)

Poor result by CUPID … Revenue , Profit is down on QOQ

Q2 result is not encouraging, Revenue, profit, dividend all are on lower side. Other expenses have seen a major uptick. Need to wait for concall on 13th

1 Like

I was expecting atleast 16 crores bottom line. Looks like that too won’t happen. I’m expecting the same explanation in the concall:

  1. FDA in process for 2020.
  2. We are looking out for the CEO, haven’t found anyone capable yet since last 3 years.
  3. Raw material prices went up.
  4. We have put in bids for more orders, outcome will be clear in a few months.

Is this a value trap with following attractions:

  1. Healthy net margins
  2. Sound balance sheet
  3. Transparent but not scalable management
  4. Not aggressive
1 Like

I think it’s unfair to expect linear growth from an order-based company like Cupid (Especially one which is a very small company). Every Concall, we are updated about the order book and future pipeline. So then, the only variable factor is the rate at which the execution is done (And of course, RM prices and other operational expenses).

I’m personally holding Cupid, not because it will report back-to-back superior profits, taking the stock through the roof. I’m holding it because, despite mediocre short-term performance, it has a good potential to scale up. It’s the quintessential ‘Heads I win, tails I don’t lose much’ kind of bet (At least to me personally).

With that said, I will be looking forward to the con-call as well, mostly interested on the line of the JV in South Africa, progress in Europe and possibilities in the USA.

4 Likes