Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!

(Manojlion) #994

Yes Sir ,execution will remain the key in the JV.

Going by the tender numbers,it seems Female condoms is mostly limited to 2 companies this time(FHC and Cupid). If FHC will also be involved in a joint venture with SA government, I believe then allocation would have been 50 -50 between Cupid and FHC for this year rather than 20-80 ,unless FHC is doing business at lower margin with SA government (assuming that Condoms manufactured by both companies are of same quality). Hence I am hoping it is a joint venture with Cupid alone.Thinking Greedy may be

However major re rating will happen only once B2C market opens up ,which remains a long shot

(Aadhyavijay) #996

(mrai74) #997

While going trough Annual Report, I came through some interesting notes

  1. Cupid received the contract worth INR 40.09 Cr during August, 2018 from South African Treasury Department through our agents situated in South Africa for supply of Male condoms (worth 23.80 Cr) and Female condoms (worth 16.29 Cr) during the period from October 2018 to September 2019.

It means that we may get approx 20 Cr in current FY (till Mar’19) & balance 20 Cr in FY 19-20

  1. On the positive side, in addition to fulfilling several repeat orders from our existing customers from various countries, the Company received new orders from WHO/UNFPA covering new geographies and two new contract manufacturing orders from the Domestic market. Despite the significant cut backs in the South African demand for Female Condoms, we increased our sales into new Geographies like Central African Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Jordan, Tajikistan, Morocco, Tanzania & Uzbekistan. As on Mar 31st, 2018, we have confirmed and repeat order worth 630 mn to be executed during this year. This does not include any potential orders Cupid may get from the South African and the Government of India tenders.

Expected topline could be 63 Cr (order in hand as of 31 Mar 2018) + 20 Cr (taking 50% possible delivery in FY 18-19 + any potential orders in next 2 quarters

  1. Water based jelly is just 4% of total revenue

  1. While going through financial highlights, we can see that “Cash & Cash Equivalents” is down by approx 14.78 Cr, even if we club it with “Trade Receivables” only 8.72 Cr ets adjusted leaving a whopping gap of 6.06 Cr.

Request guidance from finance experts

Cupid-Limited_Annual-Report_2017-18.compressed.pdf (2.3 MB)

(Vilas D'Souza) #998

Cash is down becoz they’ve parked the cash into investments. There is working capital borrowing probably becoz of that.

You may refer the cash flow statement.

(Vilas D'Souza) #999

Dushyant Poddar, institutions like Elara and others exited/ pared holdings. They seem to have sold when the stock was priced in the 300-400 range.

Are we missing something that they saw? I think only one institution was a net purchaser.

(mrai74) #1000

Looks you have hit the nail as big individuals (more than 1 Lacs) have reduced their holding from 8.33% to 3.9% in last 6 quarters and again the small investors seem to have got trapped (almost 7% increase in holdings)

The reason may be Q3 & Q4 of FY 2017-18 had lot of challenges & trouble as mentioned by management in annual report. I suspect big guys could sense it which we missed. Now once again things are improving with bright chances of hitting approx 95 Cr - 100 Cr topline in current FY

(Vilas D'Souza) #1001

M not put off by the exits. Just want to keep knowing if things r on the right track. Institutions and money managers are under constant pressure to perform, so they can’t afford to wait during challenging times, they have to exit and switch to other stocks that keep their performance look good

CEO appointment, capacity expansion, scaling up sales and efficient capital allocation need to be top notch.

(Growth_without Debt) #1002

Is anyone attending AGM of Cupid Ltd ?
Please update here about takeaway from AGM.

(Growth_without Debt) #1003

FDA Reduces Regulatory Burden for Female Condoms

Now Cupid can target US Market after necessary product certification.

More detail on new law from US FDA at :

(Growth_without Debt) #1004

As per the last con-call [(LINK)]

Cupid can comply US FDA requirements within 6 months !

(devarshi84) #1005
  1. When and whether they pass is a distant question considering 6 months is a long time.

  2. Can they take advantage of this license or will it be another competitive environment is a valid question in my opinion.

Are there any product addition/ diversification plans in place?

(RICHAJ) #1006

I think their product and track record might give them somewhat of a first mover advantage when dealing with distributors in the US. Not sure if this will benefit their contract/tender business.

Cupid has always has plenty of plans, but as I’ve learnt over the last 1+ years, there is plenty of execution risk. If I recall, they have planned to scale up their hand sanitisers, benzene wipes for premature ejaculation, vaginal hygiene products, consumer brands etc.

I really believe that the company has a lot of potential, but I’m not sure that the current CMD can unlock it. Perhaps Cupid should rechristen itself as a ‘start-up’ and start looking towards VCs for help.

(Growth_without Debt) #1007

The FC2 (Veru) is the only company qualified for Female Condom feeling impact due to new US FDA re-classification of female condom

Currently, only one female condom—the FC2 Female Condom—is available in the U.S., and it is sold by prescription only. This new FDA ruling classifies the single-use internal condom as an over-the-counter (OTC) device, opening the door for greater access

From prescription product to OTC product increase accessibility and increase demand consumption in USA.
As Cupid production facilities have been approved by UNFPA / WHO, entering in USA market will not be tough. However, Cupid shall be proactive and focused approach to get first mover advantage!!

(Ankit Kohli) #1008

Hallelujah! For once, good news and good price have come together. This is surely a positive especially given that the South African economy is officially in a recession now and Brazil’s political situation is yet to settle down.

The six month time-line has never been clear to me – six months to what? Getting FDA’s approval? Breaking the first dollar? Both are optimistic in my view since launch cycles of healthcare products are longer and involve multiple steps.

Setting the processes as per FDA norms (this is more work than most companies think) --> inviting the FDA to approve the manufacturing processes --> beginning manufacturing and building inventory (assuming approval in first go) --> piecing together the distribution network, commercially and logistically --> building the brand presence to grab a share of the customer wallet. The last two steps can begin earlier but they still do take considerable time and money. Remember, Cupid has no presence in the U.S. Its India B2C experiment is yet to take off due to branding and distribution challenges so U.S. will not be a cake walk.

Maybe the product cycle is different for condoms – something that Cupid and the consultant they alluded to on their con call can throw more color on.

Either way, this requires boots on the ground and specialized management bandwidth. It will be very interesting to understand how the management plans to leverage this opportunity and what commercialization road map they put in place in terms of production, quality control, regulatory management, marketing, and distribution. I will not be surprised if they opt for specialized partners for some of these business operations. Might lower the margins to start with but will reduce time-to-market.

This is surely an opportunity for Cupid to break away from being an emerging market-focused B2B supplier to a developed market B2C company. Not easy to pull off but the upside potential is significant so getting the right people and partners on board should be priority #1.

(Ashwin H) #1009

Had dropped Cupid an email and got a very prompt response from the investor relations team

"Dear Sir,

We welcome the USFDA announcement.

Hopefully it will be confirmed by Oct end.

We expect, it will take about six months to get Cupid’s data evaluated after we submit these on Nov 1st 2018.

Impact on financial results will only be in FY 20.

Please note the same."

(Growth_without Debt) #1010

Cupid response to investors is always fast and never ignore any investor…this my personal experience also

(mrai74) #1011

The record date for bonus is 12th October

(mrai74) #1012

Board meeting note for other business matters

(Growth_without Debt) #1013

(My GUESS) Hope for good news - might be
(1) Agreement with distributor for B2C business
(2) Finding partner in USA for Female condom approval and marketing
(3) Condom tender as on date and future outlook

(Vilas D'Souza) #1014

I wouldn’t try to speculate and read too much into the words of the announcement like a journalist until something concrete emerges. Some of those invested in this counter are high on hope with little or no corresponding changes on the ground…as far as the eyes can see.