Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(Jiten Parmar) #410

Yes. I think we should discuss processes, cycles, and not individual stocks.


(Susindar) #411

Thanks Jiten. I have read your presentation and do follow all your messages like a hawk. I asked this because the sugar stocks have fallen 50% from their top and also it is not that easy to follow this contrarian approach in commodity cycle (else everyone would do it). That’s what makes your suggestions exceptional!

Is there any commodity near the bottom of their cycle worth entering at this moment?


(Mehnazfatima) #412

Investing books tell us that the biggest cycle in I investing is the I interest rate cycle. Does anybody have a view on the turnaround in this cycle…With interest rates poised to go up in India and US too.

The second most important cycle for Indian economy is the oil cycle. Many analysts are of the view that crude may rise to 80 usd


(sougataG) #413

interesting read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-04/how-spiking-bond-yields-really-could-topple-a-stock-market-rally


(Amit) #414

https://amp.ft.com/content/69c7b2de-6b02-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa?__twitter_impression=true


(krrish seth) #415

China had extended it’s shutdowns till May. I think steel cycle had got additional tailwinds. Your process and selection had benefitted all vp members. Thank you for creating the thread and guiding in each cycle.


(Manohar T. Patil) #416

Detailed investor presentation by Hindustan Copper providing more clarity on their expansion plan for - 3-4x capacity.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/hindustan-copper-analyst-investor-meet-intimation-10731301.html

Disc - Invested


(Raj A A) #417

Looks good on paper. Typical PSU presentation.with poor quality photo copy. Can they not arrange a good PP presentation.


(krrish seth) #418

Thanks @manoopatil for sharing the presentation

It seems we’re on the spot with share price also cooled off. Copper consumption bound to go up in coming years. There is a huge demand and limited supply. Capitalism work this way like or not.

Some indian Telcos have announced their intention to develop e buses,

Disc. invested


(phreak) #419

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/e87684cd-edb3-4af3-8a11-6af18a11b561.pdf

After seeing various managements trying to talk their company up and make flashy presentations, its in fact an amusing comic relief that they have dispatched an ugly photocopy to the exchanges. What’s curious though is that they seem to have made proper slides in PP with decent graphics and have printed it and then made a photocopy for dispatching to the exchange. That’s just hilarious!


(Tarun) #420

Real hilarious part is that they have been doing it for quite sometime. Unfortunately some of the vital info on charts/ graphs etc becomes incomprehensible after all this creativity.


(vishwa7000) #421

Here is the link for original PP, it is same old presenatation only mile stones are postponed. Poor execution like government projects. I shared it in same thread sometime back.


(Jiten Parmar) #422

some random observations on cyclicals/commodities.

What I have always observed is that whenever a commodity price rises sharply in a short time, the cycle tends to be much shorter. eg BOPET price in 9-10. Prices rose very quickly and cycle lasted for 6-9 months.

When there is a gradual rise, with intermittent dips, the cycle tends to last a bit longer. eg current steel upcycle.

We also have to look at RM. If that has not risen much, or is available in abundant supply. Another big alert.


(sunilgct) #423

Do you think the same night hold true for graphite electrodes as well ?


(Jiten Parmar) #424

History tells me this. I would be extra alert, if I had any of the GE plays.


(aerofire) #425

Shares of sugar manufacturers were trading higher in an otherwise weak market after government imposed a limit on the amount of sugar that mills can sell in the market during February and March. On the BSE Dwarikesh Sugar Industries, Dalmia Bharat Sugar, Avadh Sugar Mills, Uttam Sugar Mills, Dhampur Sugar, Mawana Sugars, Shree Renuka Sugar are trading higher.


(Amit) #426

Elon Musk letter to shareholders. “2018 will be a transformative year for Tesla. This is the year when we believe we can achieve true cost parity” with internal combustion engine vehicle production, “something that many believe is not yet possible.”


(Krishnendu) #427

(Sarabjeet Singh) #428

Hi Guys, any views on cement sector. With govt focus on Infra we can get few good companies at decent price. Many cement companies reported good results for last few quarters.
If someone has done some research or came across any research report pls share.
I am yet to start my research in this sector.


(Ashok) #429

Can somebody who is expert throw some light on the possible valuation of minority shares in bhushan steel after tatasteel takeover of same (NCLT resolution) ?