Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(James Sebastian) #390

Thank you for great notes @phreakv6 . Would you please provide the source for LME copper price if one needs to track ?


(onlish2014) #391

https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=0


(James Sebastian) #392

Thank you @onlish2014 for giving link to track copper prices . I get TableAndGraphErrorMessage on graph ploting as of now in this page. Hope it will get corrected and temporary glitch in the website.


(Jiten Parmar) #393

On Hind Copper, I had previously said that after run-up it is not cheap, even after factoring for increase in capacity. In fact, I had booked profits in 25% quantity at avg 98 levels.

This company enjoys a TINA (there is no alternative) factor. Valuation-wise may always have some premium. How much, each one decides on his own.

As far as copper, and in general metals go, I think we are in an upcycle, is what I believe.


(DEEPAKSINGH) #394

any view on LEAD…lead prices at new multiyear HIGH of 169.65 per Kg today…pondy nile worth a look>any one tracking lead stocks.Thanks


(Amit) #395

(Jiten Parmar) #396

Booked all positions in Hind Copper. To buy something else, where I have much more valuation comfort. Purely a rationalization move.


(vishal kumar) #397

@jitenp bhai,

Are you tracking financial sector as a cyclical play ? do you have any observations on the same…could you please share…

Thanks
Vishal.


(phreak) #398

@DEEPAKSINGH - Lead at fresh 7 year high and seems to have broken out of that 2600 level which was a bit of a resistance. 2670 today and can possibly make an all-time high in 2018. I think Gravita is a better stock than Nile/Pondy Oxides purely based on capacities. I remember doing the research sometime early last year when I invested in Gravita. I don’t know if that situation has changed now.


(DEEPAKSINGH) #399

Thanks phreak…thats y i raise question lead looking extremely bullish and now stocks are gettig at attractive levels after hammering.


(DEEPAKSINGH) #400

(onlish2014) #401

On Copper / Hind Copper:

Hindalco posted decent numbers propelled by performance of copper. “Copper segment revenue shot up 40 percent to Rs 5,701 crore compared to year-ago quarter, with EBIT rising 27.6 percent to Rs 420.6 crore YoY.” I couldn’t check how much of this is volume versus realization growth. But could signal that Hind Copper will post strong numbers for Q3.


(Manohar T. Patil) #402

Goldman’s new forcast for crude oil is $82.5; Which company in India is likely to be a key beneficiary of this. ONGC for sure is one however given the election heavy period for next 12-15 months, it might have to share the subsidy burdon. Is there a player in oil exploration space which have either already increased or plan to increase the crude oil output and does not have subsidy strings attached? Would appreciate suggestion/ideas!


(Satyamtaneja) #403

Its results are already out. Underperformed considerably.


(us121) #404

Selan Exploration is one. Though a small cap.


(PRSAUDAG) #405

Are you still holding investments in Godavari Power and Prakash? Results r good but not sure if to add more at present fall.


(Jiten Parmar) #406

I had taken my capital out from Godavari at about 530. Sold 15% only.

Prakash, I am holding full quantity and added more.


(divyansh ) #407

First of all i would like to thank Jiten for providing a alternate way of value investing and laying out a decent approach for the same. Cyclical businesses if followed proactively and nibbling into them when things are gloomy and pessimistic can handsomely reward the contrarian investor. He has already highlighted couple of such business like cement, steel, paper, and most of the commodity linked stocks. But lot of people in the forum are making this thread a stock and subsequently price discussion forum. it would be better if we all come up with our observations on the topic and learn long term out of this thread.
regards
divyansh


(Susindar) #408

What do you think about sugar stocks now? PE is at around 5 for some and the stocks are available at 50% of their 52 week high. They have a high dividend yield as well. Based on the cycle are they a good buy now?


(Jiten Parmar) #409

I have said earlier too. I have long back exited all sugar stocks.

I will buy them at high PE or losses. Do read my presentation, why I say so,