Commodity and Cyclical Plays

(Umang Joshi) #328

Just read this, so we are in for a pretty long upturn -

“Longer-term miners and analysts expect a deficit in the copper market to emerge by the end of the decade, following reduced spending on new projects. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets say the deficit could start to emerge as soon as the middle of 2019. “This is the point when any mine supply deficit is likely to lead to sustained outperformance,” they said this month.

(Umang Joshi) #329

Planning a QIP

(Jiten Parmar) #330

2017 has been a great year for cyclical/commodity plays.
Metals/mining basket has really performed well. Allocation was good.
Also, largest holding Rel Cap is ending 2017 on a good note. A stock where I had high conviction and had bet big in recent correction. Overall, the best year ever, as most of the themes played out well.

Wishing all vp’s a very happy 2018. Be careful and be safe. And best thing is to avoid return expectations like 2017 and even be prepared for some correction during the year.

(maheshkumar) #331

Great picks sir

(tbhavesh) #332

(gadakalpeshk) #333 Price rise boosts margins of tea companies
Any views on tea sactor
Dis:- invested

(Saji John) #334

Thanks @umang for the link. The CMD has pictured a very optimistic view for next 2 to 3 years. Reopening of mines, increasing demand, scarcity of copper worldwide, monopoly in India, cyclical uptick, long-term pricing plan for export. Everything looks rosy. What are the dampners?

(Umang Joshi) #335

Other than standard project execution delays & copper cycle not coming to fruition, I can’t think of any. Its does sound too rosy

(vaibhav) #336
  1. High price to book
  2. High price to earnings
  3. lots of Capex still needed (8000cr. If I heard right)
  4. Bad track record
  5. PSU, not a private company
  6. Driven by copper price, which is not in its control

Disc: I am invested, but not sure on valuations.


I see a big opportunity for Hindustan Copper to create lots of wealth for all the stakeholders and I’m hopeful that current govt will recognise the same and not let it wither away.

(Mehnazfatima) #338

Copper at an “Inflection point”…last week of December, the global copper prices have risen with thin volumes…and that has put a question mark over the sustainability of the rally…now its just below the middle forkline on weekly price charts… now it remains to be seen whether the copper prices pierces the middle forkline with strong momentum ( as indicated by a long price bar) and move towards 500 rupees …

On the other hand…The bollinger bands on weekly price charts suggest a resumption of rally in Copper prices in the next few weeks…may be in the next 1-4 weeks itself…

it will be interesting to watch the price movement around the long term breakout line…as of now the price is above the said breakout line…

Next few months are going to be quite interesting for copper price. The price of copper may first correct and then start rallying or it may start flying straight away.

(eyesice) #339

Apart from Hind Copper, can we take a look at Precision Wires India Ltd, whose main RM is Copper and make enamelled strips and conductors? Won’t this be a good proxy play on copper?

(Rishi) #340

Does anyone track BHP. Rio T, SCCO stocks listed on NYSE? They seem to be in uptrend too. Any member or seniors tracking can throw some light on these stocks and if they can be added?

I read about ASX but its not listed on NYSE so unable to track or buy.

([email protected]) #342

Hi sukhlani1, is the above observation for Beekay steel?

([email protected]) #343

The above description is for Beekay Steel

(Lokesh Chandra Gorrepati) #344

@jiten parmar sir. Prakash industries looking very good to me now even seeing the price volume action and charts also looking good. Whats your view on it.

(Jiten Parmar) #345

GPIL and Prakash are my largest holdings in the steel basket. Prakash, I had started at 63 and last add was at 160. Results expected anytime. And should be good. My plan is to stay invested.

(Mehnazfatima) #346

(Raj A A) #347

Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s largest producer, had been ordered to stop output for at least a week. Earlier in the month, the No. 2 smelter, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, was asked to make similar cuts


@jitenp your views on Prakash Ind q3 result if you can share pl