Since the article was written when the stock was at 70, It did not fall then. Suddenly it has started falling now. Any one invested, please contact someone who knows the exact reason for this 30% collapse. Guys all those invested here give some information.
The report you mentioned seems to have been withdrawn. Canât find it. I called up Caplin Pointbut they refused to speak on the stock price. Generally they said its because of Dollar. Isnât this company into exports? I thought they would benefit with Rupee fall.
yesterday i sent a mail to them enquiring about the progress of the plant, no reply yet.
I had dropped a mail at Prudent Equity. They have replied that they have not written any negative report on Caplin. There were some subscriber queries, to which they said that 70 is not a good entry point.
Now to say that at Rs.70 it is not a buy is different than a negative report. Seems the fall is due to market sentiments.
Just in case anybody is invested/still tracking this stock, an update -
Commercial production on the CP-IV plant would start in Nov-Dec after permissions from state and national drug control authorities (everything else is in place already). Injectables will start shipping out to customers in late Jan/early Feb. Caplin has taken only 4cr of debt for the 75 cr plant (rest through internal accruals).
As part of the CP-IV plant, Caplin will also manufacture Suppositories (release in Feb/Mar 2014), Injections (Mar/Apr 2014) and Soft gel pharma (May/June 2014). For these 3 things, 35 cr additional capex will be incurred. No debt for this too. Everything through internal accruals.
Caplin is expecting this to be atleast a 300 cr business is 3-4 yrs.
Annual report will be released in December (as AGM is in December).
Thatâs really nice Kiran.
What is your source?
I am also waiting for AR & AGM (which I will most probably attend).
Sorry. Forgot to mention that.
I had a call with the Chairman of Caplin today to find out updates on CP-IV. And I presented here whatever I got from him.
Just to avoid confusion on 300 cr potential - it is injectables + niche products (suppositories/injections/softgel) - basically all output of CP-IV - which is a 300 cr (atleast) business and not one of either.
Guys,
Team ValuePickr met the Management a few months back - spent 3-4 hours overall - also visited the new injectibles facility being constructed.
The conclusion is that there are many gaps in the business/plans which were left unanswered by Management. The best offered on that front - âThere will be a time when we are in a position to disclose more - possibly at the time of the inauguration of the Injectibles facilityâ.
Please exercise caution! we maintain our view that things DONâT ADD UP!
Thanks Admin for updating promptly.
An analyst friend, who is close to management, has been following this company. If Admin can let me know the unanswered gaps, I can try to get answers.
Our take is that - they are not likely to be answered - these are the GAPS!
Management do not usually give you 4-5 hours, but ask everything be considered off-the record - when faced with searching/probing questions!!
Please exercise EXTREME CAUTION before flirting with such stocks.
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I hope you can share and illuminate us on the GAPS. It will be a learning experience for all to know the GAPS in the business. If you canât put these here, you can send them only to me.
Please keep in mind that your caution is coming on the eve of commissioning of its injectable facility, which could be a major turning point in the life of this company.
1). Admin viewpoint - is always a pooled viewpoint from Senior ValuePickrs. We have a duty to ValuePickr readership and the larger investment community to flag up what we in our wisdom, find inappropriate/worth exercising caution. Senior ValuePickrs have alluded to the multiple Gaps - in this thread itself.
2). Every investor needs do her/his own due diligence. The investment call is entirely hers/his, there is no need/obligation from members/community to substantiate considered opinion pieces.
2). Its your call - if you think you have done enough diligence and have good conviction; You do not need to heed well-meaning advise from Senior ValuePickrs!
Caplin Laboratories will announce results today. Alongwith results, it may also make some announcement on commencement of its greenfield injectible units at Chennai. Stock is firm for last two days and yesterday cossed 200 dma.
Results out. Looks decent with good sales growth (30%) but Pat down due to FX losses.
Without FX losses, PAT would have been quite higher as well.
Stock up 33% over the last 3 weeks since admin warned. I had said then that the warning is being given on the eve of major turning point in the life of the company. I had even offered to get answers to the gaps.
Hi RsKm,
According to you, what is the reason for this strong short term performance?
And how do you see Caplin for next 2-3 years?
Disclosure- Holding but not huge
For me, the USP of Caplin is huge capex being funded from OPM (other peopleâs money).
Short term price movements have nothing to do with long term fundamental, and return of a stock. Getting confused between these 2 is a deadly mistake.
Hi Rskm,
I donât think admin warned you about price movements in the next 3 weeks or even next 2 years.
Just like sometimes good fundamentals take time to get discovered and stocks take time to get re-rated the same can happen for the reverse too 
Its your choice how to read the advice/suggestions from admin/other investors. Its better to avoid pointing fingers after you see price chart as price might never give the correct picture.
Happy investing
Vinod
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Hi RsKm,
Donald and Vinod have met the management. They know the company much better than most of us do. If they are advising us to refrain from investing in the company, they would have a pretty good reason for that. Given their track record and having had the opportunity to meet them personally, I wouldnât even bother to look at that company and waste my time.
Regarding stock price, I can give you a lot of companies with poor fundamentals (many of them in CDR), whose price would have risen more than 30% during the past 2 months. Does that make those companyâs prospects any good? I donât think so.
Ultimately, its your call.
Regards,
Ankit
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