Thank you Yogesh for putting together this data.
I think we need to look at 35K loan book by 2020 as a big long hairy ambitious goal. Mr. Hota has told twice in the last four earnings call that he is not worried about achieving this 2020 goal, and he would rather focus on ensuring that they achieve the goals set for every year. On the other hand the macro situation for the HFCs is not too bad. We have been hearing about many new HFCs coming into the game, banks pulling the housing loan accounts from HFCs and slowdown in the IT sector for few years now. One can argue that is the reason behind the loan book growth rate coming down for Canfin, but I am unsure about it. Following are some reasons why I find hard to accept this theory
1- The primary (target) customers of Canfin are not necessarily the IT people. It is salaried non IT class.
2- Last year everyone felt the pinch of Demonetization. The 25% growth by all means is great in such macro environment. Now I am not claiming that the growth in the current year would be better but I do not have any reason to believe it would not be.
3- The government interest subvention schemes for the affordable housing has created a good tail wind for the sector.
4- I do not expect that new HFCs who are setting up the shop now would overnight become a threat to existing HFCs. We need to look back to find out how much time it took for Gruh, Repco, PNB Housing and Canfin to become a sizeable HFC and reflect that learning on the perceived threat from new HFCs.
5- Banks snatching loan accounts from HFCs. I am sure that we would continue to hear even 2-3 years down the line. So far Canfin has not got impacted because of it.
Let us closely watch the loan book growth over the next two quarters and if indeed the growth would be less than 25% then accept it as new norm.