interview of NHB Chief here
positive point to note is "NHB also reduced risk weight on housing loan on certain segments. " still no calrity about what kind relaxations but it should be to loan below some limit (like 25 lakh) or to salaried person .
as stated in October 15 post this can be positive as it reduces future capital requirement .
Disc: Hold and bias
excellent result by canfin homes CAR is up to 21.14% this eliminates raising capital by fy18 end or beyond.
eps for quarter is @16 so next few quarters if it can grow profitabilty by 4-5% qoq eps will be more than 70 RS. for fy17 . so val are not at all demanding .
no asset quality issues reported
NCD aprroved upto 2500 cr. as i have been telling since last 18 months this will help NIM
may have higher size of loan than Gruh in q2fy17 (still gruh is mile apart in NIM and profitability, but canfin can trade at 200-300 basis point higher in terms of PE it is quoting at)
loan growth is slowing down qoq (has to due to base)
Disc :hold and biased
I am not sure people look at P/E multiples. I think P/BV is the multiple most people look at.
yes but as hiteshbhai said somewhere(and i agree as most times) p/b can be raised by qip or right , so dont have only one tool for analysing .
A number of variables, such as recent acquisitions or share buybacks, can throw off the P/B calculation, providing a misleading value. Look at other metrics and quality of management, track record of execution to understand the business better.
All the best!
Good Q3 numbers.
ROA @ 1.6%.
NIMs and Spread have risen every quarter for last 6 quarters.
Dec 2015
Saleried - 82%
Non Saleried - 18%
March 2013
Saleried - 86%
Non Saleried - 13%
Disc: Holding from low levels for more than two years
Canfin Q3FY16 presentation - http://www.canfinhomes.com/Can%20Fin%20Homes%20-%2031-12-15%20Investors%20Presentation.pdf
sir loan ookm and disbursal grwoth is less and op profit and net profit growing too fast ???
and 7 year profit growth is 17% ???
I have used the current correction to shuffle the lowly fundamentals (relatively speaking) with top notch quality counters. Any upside which will come in all the counters will sustain only in fundamentally strong stocks while the others will soon drift lower - or rather the quality stocks will outperform immensely both the indices as well as the low quality ones.
I have been evaluating Canfin Homes for some time and last Friday panic on relatively huge volumes was a good opportunity. The upside it built over 6 months was washed away in 2 days at the low of last Friday despite Canfin showing sustained momentum in fundamentals in the last 2 quarters with Q3 2016 a superb one and we are staring at even a better quarter in Q4 with a slight impact of Chennai floods.
There are people who advocate further downside and there are people who advocate ābottom is formedā in the current situation BUT I really do not know who wins but ALL that I know is whatever happens, strong stocks available at good valuations will win. So focussing my portfolio to outperform markets.
If we monitor the results of Q3 across sectors, the home finance companies have done excellent and there is a strong visibility of them doing so for the foreseeable future and are also available at fairly decent valuations. Sustainability and predictability will ensure investors flock if not now then later. You need patience to tide over this time with minimal activity.
any idea how much will this going to make an impact?
Has anyone noticed this off late in the Can Fin Homes web site? There are quite a few āSale noticesā announcements made by Canfin in their website. I guess this happens when the person who has taken home loan is not in a position to pay the interest and hence Canfin is taking over the mortgaged property and selling if off to recover the loan. Just in the current quarter, the total of the amount of the properties mentioned in the sale notices come close 3 Crores. In the last 2 years, I have not seen this many notices published in their website (may be there were such bad loans, but the company has not put them up in their website). Still, curious about thisā¦
http://canfinhomes.com/canfinhomes.php?page=announcements
I wouldnāt be bothered too much with a 3 cr sale notice on a 9895 cr loan book. This is a part of the game.
I would see this as a more positive way in which the company is not afraid of putting this notices on the website. This shows transperancy and good corporate governance.
I would more focus on the notice for office leasing in 10 locations. This is indicator of strong growth.
Yes, you are right. Also, about the additional locations scout, it is not just 10, it is 30 (2 ads one for 10 and 20 in another).
Also, it is not just the notices but pdf copies of what appears in the newspapers. What I am trying to say is that it is more of an FYI, rather than a new channel for an e-auction or something similar.
canfin @ Rs.1028 is down just 8% from its top of Rs. 1120. Compare this to Gruh or Repco which have corrected more than 20% from their respective tops.Why is this and how best to interpret this?
disc: Invested both in Repco and Gruh
You need to compare the growth in loan book, expansion in NIM, NPA and P/BV levels to understand the differentiation in fall of the stock prices.
Any idea or news on whether C Ilangoās term is going to be extended or not ? his tenure as MD is going to end in march or april.
I wanted to know if its a big risk for a company if his term as MD is not extended ? can fin has shown strong growth under his leadership. before he took over as MD, the co was laggard in terms of growth .
unfortunately, the stock price may move much before we get the news on extension of Ilangoās tenure. It happened when his tenure was extended the last time.
Pranav, Is he eligible (age-wise) for extension of service? Do you know if there is any age-restriction that will apply to him, if his service has to be extended?
Also, on a side note, are you still holding the Canfin shares that you bought?
Canfin is ~50% of my portfolio. I havenāt sold any shares yet. I want to see what Canara Bank does with its stake given the requirement of capital for the Bank to meet capital adequacy requirements under Basel III.
Ilango is set to retire this year, so his extension as MD would require extension of his job too. However, CanFin is not a government owned company, so Ilango can also be appointed by Canara Bank as MD of CanFin after his retirement. Canara Bank CEO and MD are guys who joined from Private sector, so it is possible that we get to see some progressive changes.
