Hi Ramanhp,
NHB has permitted HFCs to adjust the Deferred Tax Liability in a phased manner, over a period of three years in the ratio of 25:25:50 starting from FY 2014-15. Accordingly the Company has to adjust the DTL of 75 crores in three years. The Company has transferred 18.50 crore in the current year from the General Reserve to DTL on the Special Reserve outstanding as on 31/03/14, and provisions for it in the quarterly reports. Markets should now have factored in these till FY17 and on a like to like basis from last year, the growth of FY16 EPS should look good as the comparison for FY15 would also show DTL provision.
Regarding whether you should buy at current price, it is important to understand the opportunity better so you should go through this thread in detail and do further research. There are major tailwinds that support the growth of HFCs – underpentration (10% mortgage to GDP), 20 mn homes to be built over next 5 years, low NPA, high security collateral, reducing interest rates etc.
Regarding CanFin Homes in particular, the management has laid out a clear roadmap for rapid growth with focus on increasing NIMs, ROA and ROE.
- 11,000 crore loan book in FY16 (with an ambitious target of 35,000 crore as VISION 2020)
- Low cost expansion through satellite network to 140 total branch+satellite office in FY16 (already at 130+)
- Double high yielding non housing loans to 2000 crore in FY16
- Reduce cost of borrowing by issuing low cost Commercial paper (Rating upgraded to AAA by 3 rating agencies); declining interest rates should help improve NIMs
- Currently the Cost to Income is high at 25%, which should come down significantly on the back of low cost expansion and rapid growth
- All these should lead to signficant improvement in NIM, ROA, and ROE
Canfin has shown consistent growth and probably has been the fastest growing HFC during last 6-8 quarters, and is on a growth path of 30%+ for the next few years. What I find really interesting is that there is limited FII/ DII participation in the stock at <1%, so once this comes in the radar of FIIs, the stock could see further re-rating. I think in FY16 the company could do ~350 per share book value and as mentioned in the annual report and company’s “Vision 2020”, it is likely to grow at 30% over next few years (and given the rights issue of 275 crore is adequately capitalised for next couple of years). So at less than 2 times book value, Can fin may be attractive for the next couple of years.
A large part of this growth has been driven by the MD C Illango who joined Can Fin in 2012. A big risk specific to Can Fin is C. Illango’s term ending, which was extended till June end 2015, and should be hopefully further extended (LINK).He is 58 years old, and will also come up for retirement soon, so that remains a big risk. Does anyone have any updates on this?
There are other risks which apply to all HFCs such as downturn in real estate market resulting in high NPAs, increased competition with focus of banks on retail housing finance.
Overall I remain bullish and continue to remain invested in HFC sector – CanFin Homes, LIC, Gruh, Repco