Candidates for 25% quality-growth for next 2-3 years


(vishwa7000) #21

Hi Nagesh,
Can you post the link for Vivid Global report. Thanks
Regards,


#22

This is the link for the post on Vivid Global


(kalyan216) #23

Excellent… i have already invested in some… i am going to buy some… thanqqq


#24

I have revamped the portfolio and the revised list is
Advanced Enzime Technologies Ltd
One of its kind company, Industry is at nascent stage, large addressable market, Serving many industries, huge entry barriers, proven back ground, high return ratios, negligible competition, durable moat.
Intense Technologies
Software Products and services, at an inflection point and available at good valuations. More details in the thread Intense Technologies
Tasty Bite
More than 30% growth is expected in calendar 2017 and 2018.
Refer http://www.tastybite.co.in/pdf/management-note-on-performance-Q3FY17.pdf
Avanti Feeds
Fortunes of the industry are changing for better. More on the company on its thread. Avanti Feeds
Delta Corp
One of its kind company, came out of uncertainties surrounding it like AAP winning Goa elections, Demonetisation affecting the foot palls etc. Started operations in Sikkim. Delta Corp - A huge but risky opportunity
Ducon Infratech
A play on high uncertainty and low risk. High uncertainty because the merger with Ducon Technologies is yet to happen, Large projects for which Ducon Technologies has bid are yet to materialize, uncertainty about the group company (Nasdaq listed CEMTREX) is yet to subside. It is a play on environmental protection field. Technology intensive low competition and probably high margin business. Many uncertainties and hence attractive valuations.
Fiberweb
Turnaround play, All set to present a very clean balance sheet. Large number of order wins, leased plant and capacity expansion should give good growth.
Symphony
It is a text book case of how a company should be run. A leader in residential coolers. Industrial coolers and the acquisition in China are huge opportunities. A Play on GST.
Trigyn
Balance sheet revamp, after all the hard work over many years, the company is at an inflection point. The accumulated losses are set to be set off against share premium account. Even though it is only an accounting aspect, it is set to improve many ratios.
Virinchi
It is also a case of low valuation due to uncertainties. These uncertainties are set to clear soon. Virinchi... A bet not to be missed
A detailed presentation on the company http://www.virinchi.com/pdf/Virinchi_Investor_Presentation_14122016.pdf

Views on the portfolio are welcome.

Disclosure: The above stocks collectively constitute ninety percent of my portfolio


(jayesh265) #25

Hi Nagesh,

I like the portfolio. However, I feel there is no participation from the Financial sector. Any specific reason??


#26

Hi Jayesh,
There is no particular reason for not having Financial sector stocks.
Basanth Maheshwari in his book ‘The Thoughtful Investor’ says that there are many stocks in the market that give 15% return but 20% and above return is rare. The compounding effect of high growers over longer periods is a clear advantage. I was concentrating more on > 20% growers, which are in small to mid cap category that are leaders in their category and are growing revenues at a fast clip and which are not widely recognized. At the same time I wanted to restrict the stocks to 10.

I like to have Capital First, Indiabulls Housing, CARE and MCX from the sector in the portfolio but not willing to let go the existing stocks. I consider the existing stocks are secular growth stories and are likely to expand EPS and PE multiples for a long period.
Of course nothing can be taken for granted, the performance is to be monitored periodically. If a compelling opportunity in financial sector comes along, it would be included by replacing the under performers in the portfolio.
Looking for an exciting stock from the sector.


(Akbar Khan) #27

What happened to Vivid Global?


#28

It looks promising, but now I have very small (about 2%) investment interest in it. I may increase investment based on the performance of the company.
As the investment is insignificant and is a tracking position, not included in the above list.
I may increase or I may come out of the stock also, depending on the performance and relative opportunities.
Not getting enough conviction to increase the holding. This is the limitation with tiny caps.


(jayesh265) #29

Hi Nagesh,

I would also like to mention that most of the companies are already trading @ high P/E and therefore offering no Margin of Safety. Further, what are chances of generation of higher returns by virtue of PE re-rating? I like many of these businesses, but would like to know your rationale on valuation front.


#30

Three things that were talked about by Basanth Maheshwari are relevant here
1 If the investment is in a small cap or a not so popular mid cap then one should be more comfortable buying an initial allocation at the current price and then wait for the stock to deliver better earnings growth to add more.
2 It makes sense to buy a good business at the market price rather than a bad one at a discount.
3 The trick to buying most of the secular growth names is to pay a little more for what is worth today and hope to make good the difference through steady and consistent growth.
And another sentence from Basant ‘trying to find best business at the lowest valuation is an excercise that remains unacomplished almost all the time’ is worth keeping in mind.


(sdudihalli) #31

Nagesh,

Very good companies identified. However as Jayesh mentioned, P/E for stocks are quite high and need to do exceptionally well to give reasonable returns. Very good stocks but may be not the right timing?

Regards,
Sharad


(jayesh265) #32

Hi Nagesh,

I’m novice in this aspect, yet I can’t be sure whether Symphony, Avanti, Tasty and Advanced Enzyme can be described as “not widely recognised”.
It’s no doubt that all of them are strong business, but I feel most of their positives are already priced in. In other words, market is expecting to deliver them to perform atleast 30% growth, failing which the stock might decline/remain sideline for sometime.


#33

Yes you are right to some extent, but these stocks were always seen with suspicion and had certain skepticism built into them.
The addressable market and sustainability of growth in Symphony was always always under estimated by the market. It was perceived that the company can not move up value chain as it would be competing with AC makers at the higher end of cooler market and of late the argument was about the entry of Voltas, Havells, Milton, Crompton, Orient etc. but the company proved its business model and performed consistently. I feel that the Centralized air cooling is big opportunity which is not priced in.
Avanti, though performed consistently it never commanded premium valuations as it is seen as a cyclical play susceptible to deceases and natural calamities. But the company’s track record over a long period speaks for its robustness despite the inherent drawbacks.
Tasty bite: The traded volumes in the counter are hardly few hundreds a day. Very recently only it was listed in NSE. It cannot be considered as widely recogized stock.


(saikathalder) #34

hi, I am also new in share market, as per m analysis, yes the above mentioned point about advanced enzymes are spot on, it will be future multibagger. high chances, though I am not invested in it, only concern is last quarter of FY 16, it is trading at high volume, not sure, the reason, and I am personally waiting for some correction to happen.
can any senior please provide his views on why it is trading at such high price…thanks in advance


(kums17) #35

Hi All,

I found Lypsa Gems in the thread interesting. The rationale or special condition is that management changed the strategy from selling volume driven low cost products to selling high margins products. This approach seems reflected in the recent Qtrly reports

Any views


([email protected]) #36

Agree with your thought, I am also following up the Lypsa story. The promoters have increased their holding Q-O-Q
Last Jun Q it was 36.06 and this Sep Q from the shareholding declared it is 36.22

I have begin my journey into stock investing, can someone with more experience dismantle the annual report and let highlight any red flags would be greatly helpful.


([email protected]) #37

Lypsa - They have reduced the debt again.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/lypsa-gemsjewellery-updates-9587281.html
The stock falled again today and I couldnt find any reason behind this, any reasons guys?
Disclaimer : Tracking position


(Satya Prakash) #38

Lypsa gems will gain from here. It is just a start of a rally. Result after few days. It corrected and weak hand doesn’t own much.
But coming results is important to confirm past few quarters result as consistent.

Lypsa has started focusing on margin instead of just revenue. Past 4-5 quarters shows that. Hope this time too


(Agarwala) #39

I looked at Lypsa story. Why is it available at such low valuations? The reasons were not difficult to find. The annual report of 17 says that directors did not recommend dividend because of lack of sufficient profits. The same company declares a bonus almost at the same time. Why?
The trade receivables are constantly more than 300 crores that is more than the annual sales of the company. More than that AR of 17 shows a sharp rise in trade receivable category of more than 6 months. No wonder the company is trading near its lows. One needs to be extremely cautious with such companies.


(Silent Investor) #40

I also read the annual report. Their Management Discussion and Analysis section has not been updated for a few years now. They are still talking about the economic situation in 2012-2013 !!