@yourraj
comparing the 2 scrips you mentioned…
i find kajaria to be a better bull than AG…
without going into much boring details…
historically since the listing of AG, the sector has been under 4 major wyckoff reaccumulations [read consolidation]
and i find kajaria fared well above the 52 week moving average each time compared to asian granito which deflates , loses momentum, and tests supply below the moving average everytime buying climaxes are reached in the price action
and looking at the recent picture…
while kajaria was getting distributed, asian granito was under accumulation in early 2017…
then again, when AG started distribution, it was very fast and vigorous and the lag between the buying climax and the last point of supply where the composite group unloads, is very small compared to kajaria…
so, kajaria seems to be a slow and steadier bull, than AG
and AG is more volatile , but better rewarding …
marathoner vs sprinter…
ideally both should be in the pf, but in volatile times we are heading to, having kajaria makes sense technically and by the return ratios which it enjoys…
i have stopped tracking the industry a year since i made my exit , but what i remember is, there was a lot of pricing issues coming up, newer capacities coming up in the gujarat region and huge demand for natural gas is going to drive the prices up in coming time, thus further hurting the margins,[domestically speaking] although gst has disrupted the unorganized play on paper, but in ground reality has it? with the realty sector still in a lukewarm growth trajectory, the pricing environment is unlikely to better up any soon…
having said that, i like the quartz venture of asian granito, the demand in quartz has not yet matured, neither has the supply, but looking at the geographies like USA , australia, where quartz is in peculiar demand spree, its interesting what might be coming in the emerging market…
it will be interesting in this fiscal , if the companies can pass through some of the input prices or maintain pricing power, maintain the margins and the topline …
disclaimer… no current position, bearish on the sector