Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


#526

suven shaking out the retail before breakout??

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jvwXBcp3/

the shakeout seems to have ended at the 50dma[blue MA] which started the rally leading to the flag on the previous run

disclaimer… added more longs of the scrip in the flash dump, early morning


(phreak) #527

Lasa - Possible double bottom. More positives are the volumes drying up and the volatility is very low. Negatives - Fundamentals weak, corp governance non-existent and double-bottom bottoms are too close.

Disc: Trading position


#528

finolex cables…

wyckoff redistribution

heikenashi chart…

volume candle chart

disclaimer… no positions


#529

nice breakout in suven after shakeout…

similar shakeout is happening in persistent system on very low volumes…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9ZjsWZcZ/


maintaining the 14 day ema support…
might be the final capitulation
disclaimer… invested in both


#530

coromandel

continuation post…

lps formation under way, sign of strength should be the next even followed by the final lps…

was expecting this down swing volume to be lesser than the previous shakeout vols , but looking at the relative picture the length of the downswing is significantly lower then the previous 2, which the vol of 8lakh share transaction si similar to the previous shakeout at 9 lakh share transaction…
which shows the bulls are taking control of the trend…
the quality of the oncoming rally, will be significant clue as to how much supply has been absorbed and still left to be absorbed in the lps…

disclaimer… initiated small position @409 planning entry in the final lps at 445


#531

sunpharma…

continuation post,…

the change of character confirmed…

since it is a index heavy weight, i wish to mention the point and figure target from the current base formation… which stands at 929… a significant 40% plus from cmp…

lots of fuel in the tank before rotation happens

pharma as a sector should do well in this run of the broader market…

disclaimer… no positions currently, panning entry at the back up


(manivannan.g) #532

Finally it’s broken the 240 range !! To sustain, key is to hold the 240 range and the same would act as the new support level. Refer ichimoku cloud in earlier post.


(manivannan.g) #533

Sun pharma seems to be getting into Elliott wave count 1 (first impulse wave for the next elliott wave cycle), after completing the corrective cycle from it’s last impulse wave (5), which is the top. Also, lot of factors supporting (Posted good numbers in domestic sales, Pharma as a sector bouncing back, Stronger USD) the bullish sentiment, hence the correction didn’t reach the Golden retracement.

After a double bottom, with good volumes it’s broken out of channel.

The price action is out of Ichimoku cloud, which is a good bullish trend reversal sign:

Each “possible future support level” would be the key points to hold, break out/down to confirm the trends.


#534

philip carbon black

continuation …

the rally ended up in showing significant SOS, and what looks like forming a backup at the top of the broken resistance…
in such a case, this invalidates phase c, and the scrip has moved directly into phase d…

Now, virtually no supply is left in the system generation of same 5 million share trasaction driven downswing as was the case before the rally happened…
essentially the composite group does not need any further shakeout action to do…
as with these levels of supply, demand is driving the rally very well already…

disclaimer… no positions as yet… reluctant to make entry, as even scrips like sun pharma has equivalent upside, with minimum downside risk


#535

@abhimakk

the suspicion looks like to be whats happening in NESCO…

nesco is distribution , in the mark down phase

that resistance in the 539 zone was a total rejection to the price action…
the scrip will underperform now i guess…
infact i think it is getting redistributed[repeated distribution, where the strong hands are exiting by selling to the retail]…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CQRvRgdV/

since u are a long term investor in this scrip… these patches of underperformance should not worry you at all…

and thanks for the scrip, the fundamentals look promising, would be interested to bottom fish it some time later on, if it comes to 300-400 range

disclaimer… no current or prior positions


#536

nice analysis…

do u see any short term correction happening , any retest of supply levels some where…?


(manivannan.g) #537

It recently broken the short term double top, so I don’t expect a visit back to supply level in short term unless there’s some external disruptions. IMO, 590-600 would be the new bottom from all the signal I see.


(Peabody) #538

It was RJ dumping which created so much volumes.Fundamentally nothing seems to be wrong with the scrip.Any thoughts?


(yourraj) #539

Hi guys need your advice regarding tiles players such as Kajaria Somay or Asian granito which is better bet as the whole sector is corrected … Which one seems more promising if we add fundamental with technical for at least two years of horizon


(manivannan.g) #540

By just having the first look, Asian Granito is in the last corrective phase of Elliott Wave and seems to be bottoming out near 200 range. However the 61.8% retracement from corrective wave “B”, which started at 500 is at 191. It’s not necessarily to touch that level, but going by text book rule after breaching the 50% level, if at all there’s a correction it may go down to 191.

Adding this note since I never tracked this scrip : If the stock is correcting due to a fundamental change (corp governance, auditor resign etc. Ex: Vakrangee, Manpasand, PCJ), all this rules may not applicable.

Will try to post technical view on all three today.


#541

@yourraj
comparing the 2 scrips you mentioned…

i find kajaria to be a better bull than AG…

without going into much boring details…

historically since the listing of AG, the sector has been under 4 major wyckoff reaccumulations [read consolidation]
and i find kajaria fared well above the 52 week moving average each time compared to asian granito which deflates , loses momentum, and tests supply below the moving average everytime buying climaxes are reached in the price action

and looking at the recent picture…
while kajaria was getting distributed, asian granito was under accumulation in early 2017…
then again, when AG started distribution, it was very fast and vigorous and the lag between the buying climax and the last point of supply where the composite group unloads, is very small compared to kajaria…

so, kajaria seems to be a slow and steadier bull, than AG
and AG is more volatile , but better rewarding …

marathoner vs sprinter…

ideally both should be in the pf, but in volatile times we are heading to, having kajaria makes sense technically and by the return ratios which it enjoys…

i have stopped tracking the industry a year since i made my exit , but what i remember is, there was a lot of pricing issues coming up, newer capacities coming up in the gujarat region and huge demand for natural gas is going to drive the prices up in coming time, thus further hurting the margins,[domestically speaking] although gst has disrupted the unorganized play on paper, but in ground reality has it? with the realty sector still in a lukewarm growth trajectory, the pricing environment is unlikely to better up any soon…
having said that, i like the quartz venture of asian granito, the demand in quartz has not yet matured, neither has the supply, but looking at the geographies like USA , australia, where quartz is in peculiar demand spree, its interesting what might be coming in the emerging market…
it will be interesting in this fiscal , if the companies can pass through some of the input prices or maintain pricing power, maintain the margins and the topline …

disclaimer… no current position, bearish on the sector


#542

titan fundamentals are definitely on track…
nothing to be bearish about imo, hence short term technical weakness projecting a couple of year’s underperformance is not a concern for the longer term investors…

the watch division showed impeccable traction so far, will be interesting to see if the new upcoming launches can help maintaining the division growth rate, jewelry segement is expected to be a stellar performer from q2 onwards , the manageent was guiding something liek 25-30% growth yoy, foray into the saree business on a pilot basis has been immensely successful and expansion is on the cards this year in north-west india, the eyewear division expected to clock 20- 25% growth by this fiscal and perfume segment expansion into mist category can be interesting play…

do not know what exactly is the reason for the strong hands lightening up, maybe those who track the company more closely have an answer, or it might be due to pure overvaluations?


(Peabody) #543

Thanks for the detailed response. RJ getting out is to invest in Insurance JV with an FII. Summary barring short term blips, nothing to worry.


#544

hoec…

revisiting one of the misjudged accumulation process in terms of location of event…

a massive further shakeout was conducted breaking the uptrend channel in the previous post , and now the uptrend is on better evidence of absorbed supply, specially on the downswings which have been occurring on gradually diminishing swing volumes

disclaimer… trading positions opened at second shakeout and both the lps


(yourraj) #545

Love your words and your opinion I think I had mentioned Somay as well Asian is having more marginal Additional products as ther top line but I am worried about the quality of the Jocky ie management in past they were heavily selling their stack in the open market they are having less retail outlets as compare with Kajaria however the sector is bearish overall I agree with you same as sugar and cement sectors don’t you think it is better time to bet NOW in cement as the dispatche numbers are improving in the cement industry and Housing for all and the strong demand of affordable housing will leads to increase in cement and indirectly there will be increase in demand of tiles and granite and Kajaria is offering one stop solution for kitchen offering versatile products … Thank you once agin for creating this thread and helping VPs and novices like me … Appreciated your detailed answer and hoping to solve my second query regarding cement sector is it staring its up cycle … ? Need your opinion on Particularly on anajani cement, sagar cement and Deccan cement …