Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Capsule91) #482

tracking mayur at support…

unspectacular levels of volumes on this downswing…
approaching the 20ema line of the bollinger band now,
maintaining this support would be critical…

disclaimer… invested, forms 16% of my pf


(Jinal) #483

Hi, can you on rain industries chart pattern


(Capsule91) #484

this is good analysis…

and from my side, this is accumulation and good base formation going on

disclaimer… invested, forms 2% of my pf


(Capsule91) #485

intrasoft tech…

interesting squeeze between support of resistance…
the level of 37 which i though in my initial analysis will be a resistance has been converted into a support now, and has been tested 5 times now…
results on 14th…

disclaimer… positional trade active will exit on any pre result rally , which is unlikely, with the bearish looking broader markets


(Peabody) #486

Hi Capsule- any chart views on Bajaj Finance.Seems like a flag pattern


(Sarabjeet Singh) #487

@Capsule91 : Could you please let me know the rational behind using 60m candles for this chart. And what is the indicator in the bottom (third) row ?


(Capsule91) #488

Just trying to understand whats happening regarding the supply levels on this drop/ pull back…
Is it a shakeout or a fresh selling wave…


(Capsule91) #489

bajaj finance should continue to move in the uptrend channel till the levels of 2953-2964 comes[from point and figure chart] … there i expect some rotation to come…


(Capsule91) #490

ramco systems…

nice backing up action on going, signs of accumulation in this chart evident…


(Capsule91) #491

shilchar tech

interesting case of 1.5year old accumulation which has got its supply exhausted and absorbed at the 52 week wilder moving average and is due a phase c change of character and sign of strength…

the fundamentals definitely needs a digging

the change of character would be kumo cloud region over head and 447 by level, which is an established resistance in phase b…

disclaimer… interested, not positions as yet


(Capsule91) #492

one of those charts which sends chills down the spine…

[nifty in pink]
usdinr and index always obeyed a inverse relation , expect the time preceding 2015 and now

one of the 2, will go down…
its better be the usdinr pair and rupee appreciates…!


(Mahendra243) #493

So are we staring at a big selloff if we see INR near 75 in months?


(Capsule91) #494

i dont know much about the economics which drive the pair…

but i sense rupee is going to appreciate soon…

the sell off is lurking somewhere soon, but its too soon now !


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #495

May be but unlikely as EM currencies generally depreciate during periods of Fed tightening like now. But with Trump being the joker of the pack, any forecast is falliable.


(manivannan.g) #496

I think, one should be cautious around the Jan/Feb months in 2019. I see a lot of factors (Politics/elections, crude, USD, Nifty all time.) are pricing in to trigger the correction in those infamous months. The technical chart do suggest that the ongoing rally will last only till Jan or max by Feb ( backed by the visible earnings picking up) and triggers selloff around early 2019. All in all we are staring at an imminent correction.

Very much agreed !


(Mahendra243) #497

Some are even predicting 80 INR for a $ by year end…then the real panic button will be pressed by FPI/FII…will it give once in a lifetime opportunity to build solid PF…or we can also tumble under pressure…only time will tell…who are the right timers in timing the market…


(Dinesh Sairam) #498

Currencies move in the Ratio of Real Interest Rates. This is more popularly termed as “The International Fisher Effect”.

That is, to say, INR/USD is trading at 70.08 as I’m writing this. India’s ‘Real Interest Rate’ (India’s Prime Lending Rate net of Inflation) is about 4.5%. The Real Interest Rate in the US is 3%.

It means that, theoretically, the pair is expected to move to 70.08*(1.045/1.03) = 71.10 within this year. So, the only way the pair would move to 75 or 80 is if:

  1. India drastically increased its interest rates (or) if Inflation in India drastically fell (or)
  2. US drastically reduced its interest rates (or) if Inflation in the US drastically rises

I think #1 is more likely, although I don’t think anything ‘drastic’ can happen. #2 is not very probable, given the Fed’s stance. If Fed further tightens interest rates and the RBI isn’t as responsive (It’s tricky, because the Inflation target is under control, so there’s no saying what their stance is), INR is expected to appreciate.

Of course, all of this is assuming that the Forex market is operating in a rational manner, which it may not be.


(Mahendra243) #499

I think you mean here is that if inflation drastically increases…as then only RBI will increase interest rates faster to contain it…right


(Dinesh Sairam) #500

The formula is Domestic Exchange Rate * (1+(Domestic Lending Rate - Domestic Inflation Rate))/(1+(Foreign Lending Rate - Foreign Inflation Rate))

So, assuming US’ Real Inflation Rate stays constant (Which I think is a good possibility), for INR/USD to reach 75-80, either India’s Lending Rate has to spike or India’s Inflation has to decrease. That is to say, given that the denominator stays constant, the numerator in the equation has to get bigger.

A practical explanation is that, if India rises Interest Rate, it signals the onset of Inflation. Alternatively, the RBI could think that the Inflation is under control, but it could actually be rising. Either way, at the cue of Inflation, the related currency is seen as weak.

Indian Importers will be asked to pay in USD and Indian Exporters will be asked to accept in Rupees. The net effect is a depreciation of the Rupee. I’m making a really simple case here. Obviously, the economic machine is far more complex that what I’m trying to explain.


(manivannan.g) #501

I was talking about acrysil with our friend @Capsule91 the trend seems to be following as expected.

2-Aug:

13-Aug:
image

I think, it’s unable to break out of the 650 range due to lack of volume which is in-turn due to the market sentiment or other factors that market is aware of.

I think with given market sentiments, it will be back to 450 range.

@Capsule91 pls let me know what you think.