Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Jiitt007) #462

Actually What i believe “Price/Chart is based on action” It can’t be reverse.I mean to say any1 cant measure the target price bcoz it’s depend on action(it could be economical/political etc.)


(Niranjan Shetty) #463

Hi @Capsule91

Could you kindly expand on what you mean by motives of manipulators? And you expect the stock to turn back down from 226?

Thanks!


(Capsule91) #464

Continuation post…

Edelweiss earnings out…
Numbers are looking good yoy , that was expected and given,
but qoq it has been a flattish with a little decline in topline , yet better margins in the capital business and lesser loss (and also revenue) from the insurance biz has improved the earnings qoq, there by expanding the overall gross margins optically, essentially the entire mix worked …
For the number crunching, here is the press release…

Technically, the scrip is moving on very low volumes yet, 18million shares transacted till now on this up swing , compared to the last one which was 126million , while the price has crossed the top of the previous upswing, and the last point of support formed in just 36million shares on the downswing…
Bulls are yet to show up,
Earnings effect are the all important point now,
A resistance retest on such low volumes can easily get converted into an upthrust and a swing below can happen…
Else what is more likely , is the market raises some eyebrow on the qoq numbers and the lets the bulls lose and the action is out of the trading range…

comparing q4fy18 earnings, that time market seemed panicky , and there was a volume surge of 6.3 million on that day when the 20 day moving average of the moving was just 2.1million…
this time, the market seems to be optimistic and less panicky, although the open and close range of the last 3 candles are small…


and RSI on the daily, approaching overbought levels[presently 66] … so what ever rally, happen on the earnings effect, should witness profit bookings also soon

a weekly close above 317 will be bullish

Disclaimer… Invested


#465

Thanks for the details note @Capsule91,
In Early trade, the price of Edelweiss is gyrating with 1.3M shares traded with downward bias.
Holding since around 2 years based on my fundamental view, for me it is not a trading position, but as l’m learning technical analysis, want to add to it or lighten it up the position by 10-15% of holding based on the technicals.
What I understood from your post is - there is no clear trend as of now.
Are you suggesting to wait for the weekly closing price ( above or below 317) and then take a call?


(Capsule91) #466

i will have a contra view on this,
there is no issue of the trend being questioned…

this action of today is going to expose if there is any weakness in the price action…

the day u posted ur query/view in this thread, the recent down trend line was retested on good volumes, i am not worried about todays action , nor the result… rather interested what market does…

and yes, a close above 317 this week , is all i am loooking for…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/w4ROtrYB/


(Capsule91) #467

edelweiss chart looking bearish in the short term…

bearish kicker candle stick pattern, there is going to be follow through of this…


(Capsule91) #468

Bls international results out…

topline flat qoq n yoy , lower expenses , improved margins qoq despite high tax outgo…
earnings up 18% yoy, 70% qoq.[consol]

finance cost continue to climb qoq and yoy…
212 cr of receivabes due persisting with the punjab gov…
as of last quarter 200 cr receivable was due from the punjab gov, 30 cr was received in april and more was expected to be received in this quarter, since punjab typically forms 25%of the topline revenue, 50.5cr of topline has been generated form this segment of the business…
so around 8.5cr of more receivables must have been received , to produce the balance amount…

in addition the punjab contract seems to have been given again to the subsidiary of the company post termination of the previous contract…
it will be interesting, as the company since the last 2 quarters, has been saying they will attempt to continue the contract , maybe on a reduced scale in punjab…
so its likely, that next quarter onwards, revenues form this segment of the business might not generate the numbers as in these quarters…
its almost irritating to see the finance cost climb when they have enough cash balance which is parked in the dubai subsidiary…

all over the guidance of 30 to 40percent pat growth seems achievable if they maintain the current run rate by the end of the year, as guided by the management…

mean while, the stock is constantly attempting to break the resistance, but high volume is being encountered and no result…


will be interesting to note how the market takes this flat topline numbers tomorrow, which i think is factored in q1 being a bit soft quarter …

disclaimer… invested


(Capsule91) #469

continuation post…

vumen should be interesting in this new gann box that its entering in next week…

a successful break out above 237-242 to be watched…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1JkzHpmr/

disclaimer… invested


(manivannan.g) #470

Looks like RAIN is all set for the upward movement, depending on the market mood + results though :slight_smile:

Several indicators confirms that a close above 250 level would pave way for the bulls. In case of bad results/sentiment, this may touch 130ish.


(Capsule91) #471

bls international…
cont…

interesting day post result…

the punjab contract extended , but to be continued on a reduced scale…

The company has recently been awarded a new contract by the Punjab Government for a period of 5
years to operate 352 facilitation centres for providing 169 citizen centric services covering 16 districts of
Punjab and working with 22 departments

and acquisition news…

BLS E-Services Pvt. Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of BLS International
Services Ltd.today announced the acquisition of Delhi based Starfin India Pvt. Ltd., 3 Banking Business
Correspondent of India’s largest bank — State Bank of India.
The company has over 1500 active customer service centresand will aim to provide a ready customer
base, wide geographical reach, trained and enthusiastic local entrepreneurs (franchisees) and a strong
relationship with SBI.
Starfin India Pvt. Ltd, is an official Banking Business Correspondent of India’s largest bank -
State Bank of
India, and holds the national license for the Business Correspondent business. Starfin has a vast network
of Customer Service Centers (CSCs) across 11 states in India, through which it provides banking services
to millions of customers

74% stake to be acquired in 2 phases , to be completed by end of this financial year…


mode of acquisition is cash transaction

that last swing went up fro 167k to 289k share transactions, and then today a huge sell off happened involving 120k shares, doing what seems like a back up action of the green resistance line, now might get converted into a support…



this seems to be a bullish change of behavior…

it will be n interesting concall today

disclaimer… added more positions today


(phreak) #472

TTK Healthcare update from this post

Nice and beautiful price/volume breakout from the inverted H&S.

Mirza update from this

Breakout happened and so did the breakdown after the results.

TTK Healthcare has its results coming out today - So any disappointment could lead to a breakdown as it did in Mirza. Timeframes are different though - Mirza chart was hourly while TTK Healthcare is daily.

Kokuyo Camlin - Breakout above 200 DMA after excellent numbers

Disc: Invested in all three.

Update: TTK Healthcare results are out and the numbers look quite good and the price is holding up.


(Capsule91) #473

cont post…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xzE8kUI8/
the supply level in this swing so far is down to a trickle…

the bulls might show up if this low volume swing continues inferring supply is exhausted

disclaimer… invested


(Capsule91) #474

greaves cotton

contd…

scrips makes a higher high, at the back of exhausting supply on absorption and followed by bullish change of character…[volumes in unit of millions]

disclaimer… no positions, tracking


(paresh.sarjani1) #475

@Capsule91
Do you see breakout in Talwalkar Lifestyles…it has been traded with huge volumes last week


(phreak) #476

Aksh Optifiber - At medium-term resistance trendline. Attempted a breakout post results but could not sustain. Numbers seem good though, so there is a chance that it might breakout after some consolidation (more likely, as it has run-up a bit from 26 levels and also since the recent two attempts at breakout failed). P/E post numbers drops from 23 to 15 levels.

Disc: Trading position today post results


(Anuj Maheshwari) #477

Ohk…thnks…so what i understand is since its moving in a new gann box, we should expect big move either side, rght? Hopefully its on upside :wink:

Next week is the result…lets see


#478

hi @Capsule91
After Management call, I think investors are thinking new light and seems to have taken cognizance of the situation that tepid top line growth is due to lumpy investment banking department and also due to broking business which saw degrowth in lacklustre equity markets.These areas need to be looked as growth in overall year and not quarterly as per Rashesh Shah.

Your view now, on Edelweiss, Please ? Close above 317 looks elusive?

Additionally was trying to understand your views on Hindustan Copper, After the results and roughly 3.5 times growth in bottomline, there is some buying.

On Daily Charts, it is showing strength, Your views please on Hind Copper


(Capsule91) #479

@anuj4282

while its disappointing to see today the candle get stuck in the median line of the schiff pitchfork
i am impressed by the opening of the candle…
the supply levels as u can see on each downswing has been very erratic after the first big shakeout…
but the slow grinding unconvincing rally that we are in with a lot of wicks, is decision rally…
which leads to break out, vinati organics, for example, i badly regret getting the analysis wrong ont that… did go through the same patterns before giving that candle…

in suven, until it holds 231 or retests… i think next week should be interesting…
if i have drawn the complicated gann square correctly, something should happen today or on monday…
its funny and feels like astrology, but gann squares are legend with both x n y axis


the vertical line falls on the 10th of august day…

also by ichimoku system, the tenkan and kijunsen did a bullish cross over today on the daily chart
positive kumo cloud projction in daily
and chikou span point away from the price action
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WwaEpnht/


(Capsule91) #480

no change of character in bls international,

retest of supply needed…
maybe at 174 to 172 region

the accumulation schematics is still intact

if the supply on this test slow dry up…
it can be a confirmation for markup from phase d

disclaimer… invested and adding


(Capsule91) #481

the accumualtion theory in edelweiss is very much intact…
this is a back up action on a panic sell reactionary move…

a double bottom formation, with drastic exhaustion of supply… 5 million shares to 1.4million on the next down move…
i believe the absorption on this sell off is on the way…
a reactionary rally on good demand, will confirm it…

incase on=f hindustan copper the down swing hs exhausted the supply force which has be reduced to half, now, a pull back of this rally, and the supply levels there would be important, if much lesser, that would be bullish

goodluck…

disclaimer…added more trading positions in edelweiss
no positions in h.copper