i have got an interesting case to make here…
this is regarding bajaj corp…
for the past 2 months, i have felt the stock price was highly being manipulated
hence the looking inside all these details which i avoid doing generally…
as a basic concept…
when the smart money buys a stock, they do not drop lumpsome buy orders at a specific price[thats what bulk/block deals are for for a cleaner transaction, in case of bajaj corp there was none in the analysed time period]…
mostly trading bots are set with specific algos which keep repeating small unit orders [trades] in a specific price range and manipulate both the bid and ask side of the order book…
this is done so as to hide their activity during the trading hours[a reason for not announcing the deals to the exchanges before hand]
a specific ratio can be used from the exchange data…
total turnover[in rs] / total no of trades executed
this ratio essentially quantifies the quantum of the transaction made per trade, when i am looking for operator activity i will be looking for lower ratio number rather than a higher one in an ideal case[which is the most frequent appearing scene in most of the stocks in most times]
along side i am taking the % delivery…
during silent exchange of hands between a group of operators…
in any given day the delivered % should be high and the the above ratio to be on the lower side
this is exactly the case with bajaj corp…
this chart gives the % delivery for the given period…
if i draw a trendline as a max deviation[not standard deviation]
this will be an uptrendline
now taking the above mentioned ratio in the chart[sorry for not labeling the data points]
one can easily spot the 2 charts are inversely proportionate to one another[it would be much simpler with the data point in the second chart, i will try to update later on, but take it from it, its mostly inversely proportionate]
now drawing trendlines on this chart
to note…
1.the TF between 8th and 18th august showed a drown below the % delivery trend line and the ratio went above the toptrendline
2. focusing on the most recent TF… post 18th august…
the delivery % rose drastically above the base line… the traded value per trade/order fell during the same time period below both the topline and the base line
during this period the volume increased over 300 times the 200day moving average
by the technical today was a doji with buyers and sellers producing their respective wicks implying market was in a locked state…
conclusion…
2 months of exchange of hands between operators have been concluded…
the stock should begin a new trend…
disclaimer… invested
i dont not want the price to be compared with this case, as it will confound the thinking and the resultant sideway action is practically directionless
criticism requested