Biocon - The ultimate biosimilars play!


(sourav) #42

I agree with you . the idea is not to get a revenue estimate. There is a lot of buzz around biosimilars and I keep hearing about industry size of 40-60bn. Wanted to get a sense of what it means for a company like biocon. I think there is good potential here(atleast for topline growth). Need to start looking into the cost side of the story.

Do you mind sharing the Morgan Stanley report on email? Have been trying to get hold of it. My email is [email protected]


#43

@rks00 please share the report with me also nav_1996 [at] yahoo.com


(sourav) #44

Great analysis in the Morgan Stanley report. Liked the Celltrion comparison .

However worrying thing is Humira US sales will most likely start only by 2022 . Also they have assumed 35% of revenues (only) for Biocon

There is not much mention of FCF analysis in this report. Just a FCF yield no. All of the story is based on revenue realization expectations. Have a few questions

  1. Is the $200 M capex for Malaysia plant already incurred or is some portion of it due ?
  2. The research expenses for the current pipeline have been incurred. However, what are the expenses in Filing and approval ?
  3. What are the costs of production and scaling post approval ? Is it going to be along the lines of generics or are the cost of production higher for biosimilars?

(sharrmasks) #45

Please mail me biocon report at [email protected] if possible.This is the first thread I am following on this forum and hugely impressed with the deep second level analysis. Invested recently in Biocon. Active in the market for the last 15 years. Hope to contribute shortly.


(Rohit) #46

Just sent you thr Morgan Stanley report


(sagararya) #47

can you please email the report to my id as well - [email protected]… appreciate your help.thanks


(rajiv goel) #48

Dear
Please send me too the report. [email protected]
glargine is the first biosimilar from biocon. It is equivalent to sanofi’s lantus. My colleagues tell me it is good but biocon is not very aggressive in promoting it; for reasons unknown.
Sanofi is about to release its next generation long acting insulin and novo nordisk should also launch its own new long acting insulin. What shall be fate of glargine or other newer molecules is anybody’s guess. However if the newer molecules are even the same efficacy as glargine then they should succedd and biocon’s glargine shall have hard time.
P.s. Have tracking position


(varun jain) #49

Hi

Will appreciate if you could also sent me the report on biocon. I am an investor in Biocon for past 4 yrs from the levels of 270 odd. Thanks in advance. My email id is [email protected]


(sharrmasks) #50

Thanx.
Link for the morgan stanley report. https://mobile.twitter.com/sksharmaongc/status/719353708006387713


(sharrmasks) #51

Seeing the price momentum, Looks like the biocon’s biosimilar story is begging to get noticed. But it is going to be long haul and may take upto 7 years to monitor the pipeline. Celltrion took 7 years to reach from 1 to 10 B $. But good thing about biocon is entry point which looks to be pricing only the existing businesses ( small molecule, doemestic formulations, crams etc) biosimilar pipeline is not in the price. So buying biocon is like buying other businesses with a biosimilar option priced at zero. Stumbled upon few recent related links which is on broad take on the sector rather than bottom up analysis. They talk about 200 B $ opportunity, india’s new policy reducing approval time from 990 days to 425 odd days etc.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-02-11/news/70539927_1_biosimilar-drugs-regulated-markets

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/changes-proposed-in-norms-to-speed-up-approvals-for-biosimilars/articleshow/51818817.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/make-in-india-can-india-be-a-hub-for-the-200-billion-worth-biosimilars-opportunity/articleshow/51032054.cms


(sourav) #52

Though this was not manufactured by Biocon, will it impact the pipeline approval in anyway ?


(pchan) #53

A link to the article on the early days of Biocon when univlever had acquired it. Including it for readers to get an insight into the management of this company.


(edwardlobo) #54

When I was researching it seems biosimiliars are extremely hard business as its next generation medicine and Biocon has made significant progress
The business is only valued at current operations
It is developing a biosimiliar for a very huge drug revenue wise and quoted by many reports as promising company
I am invested in Biocon and Natco in pharma until 2019 when patents run out and we will have news reaching stock market of developments made by these companies


(sharrmasks) #55

Link to important high court judgement on trastuzumab.


(kanvgarg123) #56

Yup! Very good news for Biocon and for patients. If the action of their drug is similar to Roche’s drug then we can experience a windfall gain in profits. Let’s hope for the best for this quarter’s result and management commentary.


(Nelson) #57

Insulin Glargine to make 100m$ from FY18:

KMS Interview on mc:


(indirachitra) #58

Hello guys any seniors can you please throw some light on the exceptional income this fy 16 and how to understand and interpert it from valuation angle


(sharrmasks) #59

Seems like a long legal battle is ahead for biocon even in home turf india but legal battle will ensure that regulatory framework is in place. Lot of happening in the space and v would like to benefit from the opinion of top minds on this thread. So please comment and illuninate. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/delhi-high-court-order-on-copies-of-roches-cancer-drug-draws-flak/articleshow/52018172.cms


(Rohit) #60

Please take the time to read the conference call transcript available on Biocon’s website or join / listen to the same! Your question is answered there


(Rohit) #61

Please refer to the below link!