Zomato - Should you order?

This is the main reason why I really don’t even think about investing in newly listed start-ups even after been a very aggressive Investor.

The story is still not cooked yet and a great deal of consolidation will come through.

A great case is dot com in usa many were merged, acquired or even go bust.

In food tech just see Germany as a case study and follow the dots in whole world German market might be the market where we can just see the future as they all merger, aquisition, bankrupt and now monopoly have all happened.

They know Zomato can not be profitable from its core business of delivery be in next 8-10 years only after certain number of growth in per capita is there.

So they can still pitch there dominance by using thing that is called network and they are building over it and how it will play out is not something that i would bet on.
Atleast need some clarity over what can play out.
In all new age tech listing most sorted buisness is nykaa and then Zomato.

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Technically speaking, I think both Naukri, India-Mart and the Pharmeasy-LalPath-Metropolis trio also qualify as new age. I track these new age firms (to the best of my ability), and these, plus the two you spoke of, are pretty much the whole of my new age set. Not invested, tracking merely.

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Just want to know why do you think lal path and metropolis are new age tech company.

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First off - apologies - this may be a distraction to the entire thread - feel free to flag and I will delete. Note that everything here is subjective opinion.

My very subjective view of a new-age company :

  • a company, using technology, usually combined with a business model which drives convergence of market forces to non-physical market-places, network effects, movement from unorganized to organized sector, while driving or creating a difference in consumer behavior or consumption modes. Essentially what a good new age firm, which does all of the above, essentially does, is to cause a change in how the business domain operates. What an outstanding one does, is basically the same, but profitably, with profits scaling non linearly, preferably for a very long time.

Somewhat very complicated, also subjective. Also, there is possibly, in fact, most definitely, cause and effect relationships between some of the component parts I listed in there.

Edit - Also note that some of the component bits may be missing. For example, does tesla have an online market place?

Key elements, to me, being tech, market-place, network effects. Sahil has a wonderful thread on platform companies. A large number of those firms will fit this bill.

LalPath, Metro were among the first ones to do the above. Google did this around 20 yrs ago. That does not make them old age. Same goes for Naukri. If you think hard enough, you could argue about making a case for IEX and CDSL by the same lens. Also, new-age doesn’t mean someone newer-age cannot kill you. DigiSpice vs UPI illustrates the case in point. The DigiSpice theme seemed to be financialization of rural populacem which was quite cool, except that it ran into UPI and UPI pretty much disrupted the disruptor. Also, it did a burj khalifa sometime last year, but that is not the company’s fault.

Note that this is all pretty subjective, but it helps in deciding what questions to ask to determine whether a firm is new age or not. And when you follow it up with the primary question of investing, is this likely to keep making profits for a long time, or exponential profits after a certain time, you get - what can be argued as - your own personalized, individual list of new-age companies which you watch. So I watch Nykaa, Zomato, Thyrocare, Naukri and India-mart. Incidentally, also invested in CDSL and IEX.

This is just the way I think about this stuff. Not sure if it adds much value. But thanks for the question.

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One of the disruption to watch out for in the long run is adoption of drones for deliveries. While still some time away, as it matures and technology backbone is built, drone deliveries can dramatically cut down cost of food and other goods delivery. Lot of ground to cover, but since you made a point of 8-10 year horizon that is enough for drones to move in.

I am not saying we should buy Zomato and hold so long in hope of drones taking over, just an observation to keep evolution of drones on radar. It is going to revolutionize day to day delivery of goods over both short and fairly long (50-100+ km) distances.

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I was also ambitious about it but watch a video and how its idea just might be good on just paper.

Some very valid argument were there and I personally see it possible but to much far ahead then we might assume

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I am trying to understand what the positives are here? Zomato had already tried doing the groceries delivery business and failed miserably. It burned a ton of cash before finally exiting the business in Sep 2021. It then invested $100m in Blinkit hoping that they could still get a piece of the action as Blinkit was fairly established in the grocery delivery market (and doing slightly better than Zomato) but that didn’t play out well either. Blinkit burned through cash even faster trying to replicate the 10min delivery model made famous by Zepto. It invested heavily in building warehouses all over the cities to enable them to do 10 min deliveries but the ROI just could not be justified. The only thing this achieved was the wrath of the VCs, who refused to pump anymore money. Which is why Zomato is now doing this merger ! If not for this merger, they have to kiss goodbye to their $100M investment. Though this merger is an equity swap, Zomato will have to pump more money into Blinkit to keep it afloat. So at this point, is there any upside to investing in Zomato? Unless we can see how Zomato’s network, reach and resources are being leveraged to turn this around, I would just wait and watch from the sidelines.

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Mostly these businesses will start giving you returns when economies of scale start hitting. Jio was one.
India was 99% household cooking nation. But the habits have changed drastically. Just like jio zomato is also a household name. If this doesn’t count for anything then we shall stop this discussion right away.

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Thanks for sharing the video. While I agree on some aspects of what is covered in Video, I have a different view on some others.

I had recently done research (as part of my work) on drone based deliveries across the world. The reason Drone deliveries have not expanded as fast as everyone expected them is complex. While technology continues to mature with time, flying of drones is strictly regulated in most cities and towns and needs a lot of permissions when commercial usage is involved. Also the technology backbone - kinda “google maps for drones”, “airport like control tower for drones” and lot of legal aspects like "what happens when drones crash, who has the liability etc. etc. etc.) are yet to be worked out.

Having said that, my research clearly indicated that Pilots for drone deliveries have been systematically expanded in the select cities with regulators giving permission to fly drones beyond line of sight for commercial deliveries. Ireland is leading here and so also select cities in US and Europe. Commercial delivery of groceries, medicines, food and even coffee is already happening in these pilots. Since it is a revolutionary change, it will take time. Don’t be surprised if in future we see “drone pads” in every building society.

Last mile delivery in Retail is a huge cost and is eating into margins of the retailers, so there is enough impetus for automation. Delivery robots are not as fast as drones and have similar limitations as drones that they cannot come to your balcony, you have to go to it.

Impact of technology is over estimated in short run and underestimated in long run!!

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My personal view - as of now their is no clear path to profitability on food delivery business. one can invest based on hope, but delivery charge cost is very high with current setup of manual delivery. Not sure how many customers would be willing to pay that charge fully (which they are anyways not paying in full right now).

Three key variables to watch

  1. Cloud kitchen business scale up and its contribution to profits
  2. Backward integration business of providing raw material goods to restaurants and its contribution to profits
  3. Planned restaurant value chain finance business scale up and its contribution to profits

If you have visibility on these aspects and can model it, you should be able to get some clarity. I certainly don’t have those skills, hence I am staying out for now.

Just my 2 cents - hope it helps!

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I agree that we should be broad minded when expecting disruptions and what you mention is certainly possible.

One thought that immediately comes to mind is that when that happens, would it not be easy for individual restaurants to use drones for direct delivery? Buying licence and drone tech maybe easier than managing a fleet of riders… thoughts welcome!

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Good question. As per my research, we need trained drone operators to operate them. It is being looked at as new skill that will have to be developed if Drone operations has to scale in medium term. So not sure how many restaurants would want to spend on acquiring talent with that additional skill. Or may be likes of Zomato can pass some cost savings to restaurants agreeing for drone delivery so that they don’t have incentive to invest in their own drones and drone operators. Add to it the additional headache of long term maintenance and servicing of drones and legal liabilities due to drone related accidents etc.

Day to day autonomous drone operations (or autonomous drone delivery like self driving cars) is still some distance away.

Just my views and I could be 100% wrong here - predicting how future will unfold is really difficult.

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Intersting perspective

10mins delivery
U can stay unplanned and order whenever u want to.
One will deny needing the 10mins delivery until he actually needs it immediately. Zomato Blinkit are solving those issues. Or can u comfortably say from ur couch that they just want to let u know that they have this 10min service which u can use when u actually need.
Offcourse you can choose to live with a lot of discomfort. Nobody needs fancy shoes or clothes, u can make the argument that why not just one set of clothes why newer ones.
But we choose to make ourselves more comfortable which is what zomato is actually providing

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Just a good thing for online delivery,

many corporates can/have started extending work hours for like 5 days a week for 2 days holiday. And ppl cannot go out for lunch as they used to do for like an hour.

which means they can order online(highly likely) +more parties for long working hours or eat in the canteen or bring own luch that will not remain hot.

Heard that some division of the Tata grp will implement this. which is a very big w.

edit* : this will also bring huge eating habit changes once people start getting used to eating hot meals at good prices in offices.

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Good articles talks about automating manual stuff in kitchens - Helps zomatos etc.

can someone please clarify this…I was checking the public share holding of Zomato
it says about 83 %
But when i further click on public holding, it says foreign companies 57 percent…info edge 15 percent , uber 7 percent etc…Why are these listed under public holding?

How much does general public like you and me hold?

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Retail investors hold 3.5% (investors who invested up to 2 lacs).

https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpPublicShareholder.aspx?scripcd=543320&qtrid=113.00&QtrName=March%202022

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Zomato is a professionally managed company and nobody has been classified as promoter. Therefore, almost all shares are Listed as public category.

Same is the case with icici and hdfc bank.

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