What was the rationale for arriving at a P/E of 50?
Consumer companies are valued at 60-70 PE due to their defensive. (I do not agree with that)
I assumed 50 PE due to intense competition in Blinkitās business. And also that Zomato will behave almost like cyclicals in an economic downturn as food delivery is still a luxury in India.
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I put sales of FMCG giants and added them.
Blinkit canāt sell more than its suppliers combined.
Blinkit faces very tight competition.
And no company with 14k cr in sales has achieved 30% cagr growth in sales.
Blinkit has moved far beyond FMCGā¦ newer categories will keep driving growth for them. Also, a significant part of incremental consumption isnāt driven by listed FMCG cos. Unlisted cos like Veeba have become 1k crā¦ there would be many more such cos (Paperboat, Pepsi/Coke India, etc etc)
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Although I agree that they will move to new categories, they cannot have large catalogue of products due to real estate issues.
Also flipkarts sales are 56k cr. Even if you assume that in the sales after 10 years that would only increase value by only 25%
Nifty will give more than that.
Why take so much risk for ifs and buts. And why will blinkit succeed given competition from big basket, Zepto, instamart, jio mart etc
Veeba may be 1k crore but it is nothing compared to giants like HUL, who do sales of 60k cr and have market cap of 6.8 lac cr.
I have added sales of many fmcg giants in my calculations.
If 31% is your average case what is your bull case? 
The strength of Zomato is Innovation as well as execution as seen so far if compared with competitors. I think this outperformance will continue. The Blinkit revenue can grow multi-fold(may be 6-7x atleast) in next 2-3 years( The #black stores locations determined using Data Analytics will be > 4x , they started to sell iPhone-16 and planning to sell other higher value goods and which will also be higher margins i think). With their big growing customer base and that can be leveraged for newer and newer products and services , that combined with their proven superior execution and innovations, makes them a Force to reckon with in coming years.
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Brother,
They might expand into other categories, becoming like Amazon and Flipkart, where you can buy anything. Flipkartās sales are ā¹56,000 crore, yet they burn ā¹4,800 crore. Amazon India generates ā¹25,000 crore in sales but also loses money.
Imagine Blinkit, without warehouses or a pan-India distribution network, magically reaching Flipkart and Amazonās sales levels in 10 years. That would mean ā¹130,000 crore in sales from this vertical alone.
Based on these assumptions, Zomato and its subsidiaries could generate over ā¹200,000 crore in sales, surpassing companies like HUL, Nestle, D-Mart, VBL, and many others. Adding Blinkitās ā¹130,000 crore would bring the total to ā¹330,000 crore in sales.
With a 5% profit margin (remember, Amazon and Flipkart are losing money), they could achieve around ā¹16,000 crore in profit. Using a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 50, their market capitalization would be around ā¹8 lakh crore. This could potentially triple your investment, but it comes with significant risk. I doubt Zomato and its subsidiaries can effectively compete against BigBasket, Zepto, Instamart, JioMart, and others.
My assumptions are so absurd and exaggerated that even a child would see through them. Theyāre merely to highlight the irrationality of some people.
In my opinion, Zomato is unlikely to achieve substantial profits. I personally believe it will follow the path of Reliance Power, Yes Bank, or Unitech.
I urge anyone invested in Zomato to carefully consider these facts and evaluate their holdings.
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They might expand into other categories, becoming like Amazon and Flipkart, ā¦
Become like Amazon and Flipkart? It looks like the other way round. Its Amazon and Flipkart that want to become Blinkit, venture into Q-commerce. 
I am not sure if Blinkit is yet interested in becoming Amazon like e-commerce retailer. They reman focussed on
- quick delivery model
- Target cutsomer base is rich/upper middle class who won;t bother about paying a little extra for convenience, luxury, for unplanned things.
Flipkartās sales are ā¹56,000 crore, yet they burn ā¹4,800 crore. Amazon India generates ā¹25,000 crore in sales but also loses money.
Thatās another difference wrt Zomato. Zomato execution has ensured the start of profit cycle last FY.
Just think you are in year 2022ā¦2 years back.
Were you or any analyst able to predict Zomato revenue/profit growth at that time, when it was selling for Rs 40/50.
And here the attempt is being made to predict the revenues and margins and profits after 10 years !
Imagine Blinkit, without warehouses or a pan-India distribution network, magically reaching Flipkart and Amazonās sales levels in 10 years.
Yeah its not easy. . However think why they are still not able to do quick deliveries even when they have such big networks
I think newer collaborative models will come-in for large products in coming years to build efficiencies with Blinkit/Q-commerce at centre of them.
I doubt Zomato and its subsidiaries can effectively compete against BigBasket, Zepto, Instamart, JioMart, and others.
No doubt there is competition, however any reasons, specifics, data for this bearishness on an outperforming/proven business ?
This will be helpful.
In then end, its different opinions that make a market. Its ok to have different choices.
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Absolutely! When Prof. Damodaran valued Zomato at ā¹41 during its IPO in 2021, he looked at the information available back then. he didnāt consider blinkit at that time as Zomato acquired Blinkit only in June 2022.
There are so many things we miss when valuing a company. it is nearly impossible for anyone to predict it correctly
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I canāt say more than I have. I wonāt say that Zomato is not a good business. But the valuation is absurd.
I sincerely hope you can 10x your money in this and it becomes your āmultibaggerā.
Personally I canāt believe that Zomatoās execution is better than that of their multiple competitors. For me it is a commoditised business.
Their market cap is far larger than their total addressable market.
Look at other stocks related to quick commerce and multiple markets across the Globe.
I see downside up to 95%.
I will repeat rule number one of investing is to never lose money and the rule number two is to never forget rule number one.
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Can anyone tell me what on the earth stops Flipkart, Amazon, bigbasket, swiggy, zepto becoming another blinkit. What is the moat here.
I think most people are assuming that Blinkit is competing with Zepto, BB for the same pie. Its not. The competition is with Kirana stores and its taking away that business. And the TAM of that is massive. Where they have done wonders is AOV of Rs 620 vs Rs 450 of the competitors which goes straight to the bottomline. Agree that in India there is low brand loyalty, but the expansion of the market especially newer cities and new premium product categories is what make it possible for multiple players to succeed. In future the demanding Indian customers will want everything in 10 mins.
Disclosure - Took significant position between 40 and 100. No added since then since despite the massive growth as valuations are not attractive any longer.
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Can goverment bring some policy changes in Quick commerce which can hamper the business of Zomato? Also lot of employment depends on quick commerce. So goverment may not want to kill this growing space . Requesting members to share your thoughts .
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With such a massive data base and last mile delivery in place, what will stop Zomato to venture into adjacencies such as Dhobies, medicines and lot others? They can expand the addressable market where more than one player can survive and prosper.
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This space is highly competitive. For example, today I placed an order with Blinkit, but after waiting 20 minutes due to a server issue, I cancelled and switched to Instamart. It highlights how quickly market share can shift in this segment.
Iām holding onto Zomato because I trust the managementās execution and their ability to drive a turnaround. Additionally, I believe their Total Addressable Market (TAM) will keep expanding as more young adults graduate and join the organized workforce, particularly in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities.
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Think how big is the pie
Aswath Damodaran on Zomato Valuation:
The reality of valuation is youāre right for a very brief moment of time. Then, you are going to be wrong again, if you measure right and wrong based on price being different from value. So, I think Zomato might become one of the companies I will revisit.
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Idea is not to look at rear view mirror, which will tell nobody has grown this large so nobody will, but some intelligent looking into future.
As mentioned TAM is huge and if there are no external shocks (govt. regulations, economic crisis).
Indiaās GDP can be assumed to grow at ~5% (conservatively) + eating the share of kiranas, marts, e-commerce etc. As shared, New Business lines will also contribute some pp.
It is slighlty difficult to see them growing at 15% for 10 years but I canāt rule it out. May be i can say that it will be bull case but with high probability.
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