Well, seems like the inverse head and shoulder pattern has failed to materialize. The neckline has not been breached leave alone a breakout with strong volumes.
Moody’s downgrades credit rating to negative - Link
“Moody’s notes that Yes Bank has received offers from a number of financial investors to invest up to $2.0 billion through new equity capital into the bank. Nevertheless, Moody’s notes that there are significant execution risks around the timing, price and regulatory approvals required.”
Disclosure: Not Invested. Closely Tracking
Moody"s and IDFC Securities should have rather waited till the issue of fund raising get resolved. which is due in a week"s time probably. What’s so urgent for these brokerage firms to start downgrades in such a hurry. nobody understands
I don’t think the issue will be resolved in a week. Suppose YB board on tuesday decides to accept funding from Erwin Singh and suppose even RBI gives the permission in a week, do we expect to get the money in a week as well? Erwin’s company is saying they raised 3 bn euros from investors in Switzerland. Are they going to invest 40% of that in a single investment? In my limited google search, I could not find about this money raise anywhere. Most likely he is round-tripping someone else’s money via Swiss route and if too much scrutiny happens, this shadow investor may balk and we get nothing. The saga would be complete only after that money arrives in India with YB and I don’t see it happening this year at least.
Even if RBI is bypassed and equity issue is limited to 5% of share capital (~ $ 225 mn) per subscriber entity, the amount raised would still be $ 1 to 1.2 bn, which was the original target, depending on whether SPGP / Erwin B are treated as separate entities.
As @pkk123 mentioned before, Ravneet missed out on a big trick when QIP of only $ 275 mn was done @ 84, when almost $ 900 mn was subscribed. A Deutsche investment banker, jumping from frying pan into the fire, seems appropriate here.
Half of the brains of this bank seem to have left the building with Rana.
The boarders on this forum seem much more intelligent 
Now the big question, as mentioned in post above, is the money for real? (even at 5%)
And, what is the management smoking?
Don’t know how much the book will be diluted with fallen share prices till time of issue.
Disc: bought low, exited safely.
1.7 B USD is a huge banking FDI. In current scenario, if any Outside party is bringing this much amount in a bank which is systematically important for banking system, will see how RBI will reject it, if rejected than this will be a big dampner for foreign investment. This investment can being yes bank out if current mess totally. Even 10% capping and bringing 1.4 B USD will be enough. Lets see.
After the PMC saga, I don’t think RBI will have the appetite to let a much much bigger bank collapse. So either funding from Erwin will be allowed or if its not allowed then one can conclude that RBI deems YB is in no immediate danger of collapse. Personally, I would prefer if this shady guy Erwin is rejected and YB raises money from RJ and AB group - may be convince them to put in a little more. Or may be relax the condition for mf’s who sold in the six months prior period.
I was also watching an interview of Sameer Arora where he mentioned that if PayTM can raise money at 15 bn USD then our private banks at 2 bn should be looked at and that he has bought into one. Now which one I am not sure but its either YB or RBL. Anyways, point is that at this valuation YB will find some good suitors sooner or later. May be they should take some pain in the short term and scout for better quality investors for long term benefits.
In between all happening on PE fund raising front… YES has changed Registrar and Transfer Agent
Note : Karvy has changed the name post issue
Only the name of the RTA has changed after karvy issue
Suspense and excitement continues… https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/fca1c08c-ea85-41da-b9a8-e5395bbb14c2.pdf
Now it’s very hard to believe Mr.Gill.
If they know the 1.2 Billion binding offer is from such a vulnerable person then no point of making it news for more than a month and they may just want to buy some time and using that binding offer as a buffer.
Until and unless if there are strong investors arising in next few days I think it’s very hard to get it on track.
Disc: Invested and large part of my PF
Do you have any details of QIP investors who had participated in last QIP, HDFC AMC was largest Who bid in QIP nd still holding. Yes Bank is going through rough patch, CCD, Altico, Cox and kings, Essel group. Nobody could have questioned their crediblity 1 year ago. I still remember ICICI bank was about to shutdown in 2008 crisis:grinning:
Some folks thought that some folks like me were doing fear mongering when we suggested that it would be acquired by any other bank. Guess what … it is headed in that direction if the smokescreen of fund raising is finally over without any fruitful result. I have not understood why would someone spare couple of Bn USD to save a bank without getting ownership control. Prem Watsa saved CSB bank but the amount was small and his reputation as an investor was clean. What is stopping Yes bank from finding some clean investors? It seems that RBI would wait till FY20 end to decide. But potential grooms are already getting nervous. 
Even for Kotak it brings good amount of headache in terms of recoveries from many chor promoters who were beneficiaries of YB’s generosity.
No holding.
I was wondering, yes bank seems to have quite low cash flow generated in last few years 1 (4B in 2013, -24B in 2015, -5B in 2016, -222B in 2018, -248B in 2019).
I have a few questions regarding this. If any of the fellow valuepickrs could help answer them, I would be grateful.
- How is it that yes bank was still valued very well until the 2018 crash?
- Is the morningstar data trust-worthy?
- How is the free cash flow in the YTD and TTM columns is large and positive while the 2019 number is large and negative?
- How does yes bank have a positive and growing earning per share until 2018 but negative free cash flows in many of the years? Is this ‘earning’ financed powered debt?
Disc: Roughly 20% of equity PF and 5% of net worth is in direct yes bank shares.