More management changes
There is always a right price (true for Satyam aka Tech Mahindra). Terminal jockeys aka Traders such as Zerodha may not be the right people to pontificate on deep value.
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This is a super article. Wonder how all such activities go un-noticedâŚand only when the bubble bursts are such things candidly discussed? From reading the article, i get a impression that a lot of people were (have to be) in the know of how business was conducted in the bank.
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1 november is the date for results
Definite delay in DHFL resolution.
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Just a thought⌠why was the bank in a hurry to announce their binding offer yesterday itself (F&O expiry day)? They are scheduled to release their quarterly numbers today, along with which they could have announced that also. Isnt it? Besides, they have not disclosed any other data (whoâs the bidder, at what price have they bid etc), other than merely mentioning the binding offer! Any special interest to see a spike in the stock?? 
Interesting.
Just another observation, ignore if this looks stupid please. Hereunder is the sequence of quarterly result announcements over the last 11 quarters.!
In âmostâ of the quarters in which results are perceived to be good (either sequentially or YoY), they are released during market hours. The quarters which had bad numbers were released post market!!!
2 inferences with the above data: IF they release the Q2 results post market, it implies a âpossibleâ disappointing result. And, even IF so, yesterdays announcement, which eventually stoked the stock up ~25% would more than take care of any downsides, in the eventuality of a disappointing result. No? 
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Donât see any clear pattern as per your data on timing of results release âŚ
I think the market is obviously expecting a bad result which is why the stock has traded anywhere between 0.3 - 0.7x book this month. One could even argue the market was doubting whether Yes would continue as a going concern âŚ
Two points:
- BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and HDFC related entities (among others) bought into Yes @83 two months ago probably after a deep look at yet non public information.
- IF Yes can convince a deep pocketed, fit & proper investor to recapitalise the bank soon, then the going concern risk should be dispelled conclusively and the bank will be valued on fundamentals again.
Disc. No position, tracking closely
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Does anyone got details of analyst concall bridge ?
Or they have stopped conducting it as I canât find it anywhere
In Banking, in my opinion, price/book is more optical in nature. Let me explain: the current price/book reflected by historical numbers (say 0.3X), âmayâ in reality turn out to be much more expensive at any later date, should the book value (denominator) erode on account of asset quality issues. So one should not go strictly on the basis of P/B visible today.
With regards to the 2 points mentioned by you:
-
I donât come from a school of thought that Institutional investors are the most ideal indicators of either corporate governance of a company or that they possess and act on in-depth and most accurate information. If so, then institutional investors, even the largest and most respected names in the industry, wouldnât have been taken by surprise in several larger stocks and burnt their hands historically. No?
-
The point you mention here is obvious. âShouldâ they be in a position to convince, it could give them some headroom to grow. However, there are some moving parts in this that need to be answered: what price would the deep pocketed investor come in, what stake sale would that imply, would there be any regulatory restrictions while doing so etc etc.
I am not too sure what the market was/is factoring in. I, personally, never believed that our government could have allowed such a big bank to go under and hence going concern was not a part of my consideration. What i was, and continue, to be worried of is the extent of bad assets that yet are pending to be provided for. Its a public domain information of the extent of exposure the bank has had to groups concerned by most as risky. Its only when this risk gets allayed and they consistently report strong numbers, will the market take any serious cognizance. ICICI bank, was one such bank, that had to go thru a long period of consolidation and underperformance after having reported a disastrous lending practise.
Having said that, stocks have a tendency to swing and can offer lots of trading opportunities as well (aka ICICI Bank during its consolidation phase).
Disc. Hold small tracking positions.
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Edelweiss and Kotak analyst expectation was for 1900 and 1200 Cr loss reporting
Results are much better:
About the QIP. Institutions may be used to burnol but would they purposefully jump into a frying pan/fire etc.? The issue was oversubscribed 3x, so 1.14 billion USD was thrown at Yes bank by somewhat suicidal institutions.
Disc: First entry, averaging around 50, past week, now biggest part of portfolio.
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Although bad news keep on flowingâŚstill there are few key points to note
- Excluding DTA impact⌠results are not too bad
- Partnership with Microsoft
- UPI transaction increasing at rapid pace
- Headcount increase by 2.5k (approx 10%) in current quarter
These indicate that business is NOT dying
Yes_Q2_investor_presentation.pdf (1.4 MB)
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From where you got this information of Partnership with Microsoft ?
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YES BANK partnered with Microsoft to strengthen its first of its kind, AI enabled chatbot, YES
ROBOT, with advanced NLP engine LUIS (Language Understanding Intelligent Service) and other cognitive services, capable of understanding and resolving the evolving banking needs of customers without the need for human intervention
You can get it from results.