Confirming my earlier estimates Mr. Khorakiwala said that Nifithromycin could be 500-700cr drug in Indian market in 2-3 years.
Also, Phase III clinical trail of WCK-5222 is complete.
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Surprisingly they did not file any disclosure with exchange
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As mentioned by him in the interview-
there are multiple steps before they file for approval - I suspect that is when they disclose. trials are done… result will be decoded only after 3-4 weeks.
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Hi, I am new to this platform but completely intrigued at the level of knowledge and understanding people have about the drugs which Wockhardt is in process of launching. I have a question about the HMPV (human metapneumovirus) outbreak in China which has a potential to become a larger issue. Can WCK-4873 which treats the community-acquired bacterial pneumonia, be used as a potential drug for this virus? I am pretty sure that I am trying to draw a connection between the new outbreak with WCK-4873, and may be completely off tangent.
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This is a drug to manage community or hospital acquired pneumonia which is caused by bacteria. There’s no connection to any virus, it cannot treat a viral infection or a viral pneumonia. It may help in preventing or treating hospital infections in patients on ventilators but that’s a very far fetched scenario and hence not applicable
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They have now with 97% efficacy. Rest of the details available in BSE announcement.
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General- Wockhardt’s antibiotic research was mentioned in DW’s article on antibiotic resistance.
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What does this mean in terms of timelines? Does it get approved or are there some other formalities required as well ?
Watch this to hear the timelines from the horse’s mouth…
They file for approval in July and then 6-9 months results… FDA next year… india they expect this year itself approval.
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Wockhardt’s Zaynich® (Zidebactam/Cefepime, WCK 5222) achieves highest-ever efficacy meeting superiority in a global, pivotal, registrationenabling Phase III study in complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) achieving 96.8% clinical cure rate
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Wockhardt Ltd. swung to a net profit of ₹20 crore in Q3FY25, a sharp recovery from the ₹86 crore loss reported in the same period last year.
Revenue has increased 3% YOY.
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This post has shades of portfolio construction, even more so than being one on Wockhardt. Still, Wockhardt is a lead actor, so putting this here.
My view of the medium term macro outlook is not very positive. Whatever the US’ objectives are, one thing it seems to have achieved is reducing trust among global actors. Before a new world order gets formed, uncertainty will linger, and will reflect in the world economy. Will markets move with a lead or a lag, I’m not certain. And I don’t want to wait to find out.
I’ve been lightening my equity exposure for several months now (due to valuation concerns), and currently am at a fairly high level of cash + gold (ETF).
Where does Wockhardt fit in? I feel that Wockhardt has a low beta factor - it has the potential to move very differently from the rest of the market. If Zaynich gets an FDA OK, Wockhardt is likely to hit new highs even if the rest of the market is tanking. Since my expectation for the market is not very positive for the medium term, this quality is particularly compelling for me.
What I’m attempting is a “barbell” strategy of sorts. Taleb articulated this concept well, and many places have written about it. For eg: What's The Barbell Strategy? - Definition, Examples, and More — Wealest
My barbell is:
Largish Cash + gold position on one side: Giving me stability, and ability to take a lot of pain
Wockhardt on the other side: A risky bet (if the FDA approval for Zaynich does not come, the stock will be pulled down by Jupiter-level gravity), but offering the possibility of upside and a dissociated-with-market type movement capability.
Putting this here for the benefit of others to show one way of thinking about portfolio construction.
Disclaimer: Invested in Wockhardt from low levels. I also trade in Wockhardt, have already booked profits in the past, and may continue to do so. I may exit at any time and may not update in this forum. Wockhardt is risky bet and may not be suitable for many investors for a variety of reasons.
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Wockhardt | Founder Shares Company’s Plans & New Launches
Watch here
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6c50e942-c9ad-4a5a-840f-10e4b31f502c.pdf (786.8 KB)
Many new informations about target marketsize countrywise and company’s way of thinking about positioning of the drugs and methods adopted for commercialization .This concall probably triggered price surge today because the data was presented in a very coherent manner and in laymans language.
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addressable market of INR10,800 crores at the Miqnaf pricing
I remember in some interview they said TAM for Miqnaf is about 500 Crores. This is a very positive surprise.
Can we speculate how long would they require to capture 50% market share?
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Yesterday’s concall transcript gave investors very good understanding of the company’s way forward.
The most critical takeaway from concall is that the company has nearly completed all preparations for filing an NDA for Zaynich.
Confirmed Milestones:
- Multinational Phase III completed
- Indian study complete with 97% clinical success
- Pre-NDA meeting held with U.S. FDA (May 2025)
- NDA filing expected Q2 FY26
- Manufacturing in Europe (API + formulation); USFDA-approved facilities
- Initial commercial supply ready; batches already made
- CLSI breakpoint granted — rare pre-NDA development
The preparations and milestones shows that probability of getting FDA approval is likely strong.
Management for the first time has given some hints about the market potential of Zaynich and Miqnaf. Let’s look at Zaynich first.
Total addressable market for Zaynich in US + Europe is $7B annually. Indian TAM is 17,000 crores annually. How much out of TAM the company will be able to penetrate is anybody’s guess but previous studies shows that novel drugs follow S-curve market penetration. Reasonable estimate will be
Based on these penetration we can calculate revenue for Zaynich in US+EU & India. Assuming Wockhardt will out-licence the drug in US+EU and 35% of revenue will come to the company. As far as India is concerned the management has clarified that they will manufacture and market on their own therefore the company will get 100% share of revenue.
US + EU
India
Management has also mentioned that TAM for Miqnaf in India is 10,800 crore. Assume similar S-curve for the drug, revenue estimates could be -
If we further assume that company does not grow it’s present business and revenue from the present business remains at 3000 crores, Zaynich is not launched in China and other markets and their insulin business does turn out as well, the following could be the revenue projections for the company -
Also I tried to collect the data for Market Capitalisation and Sales for various Indian companies, of course they are generic companies and novel drug maker like Wockhardt is in different league all together.
Disclaimer: Invested in Wockhardt. This post is for academic purposes only, based on publicly available information, company announcement and my assumptions. I’m not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser, and this is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I may be completely wrong. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered advisor.
P.S - I want to thank @phreakv6 for initiating and doing very beautiful research on this company.
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Wockhardt | Management Interview
a. Management speaks on their 25 year journey as a listed entity
b. We expect 80-100% growth in topline over the next three years
c. See margins move towards 20% in 3-4 years
d. Approvals for Zaynich in the US can be expected by FY27.
Watch the management interview
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Good post and very informative. Any reason why promoters have continuously been selling their stakes? It’s come down from 65% to under 50% and last few quarters have seen aggressive selling. Given the potential bumper harvest company is set to reap and it’s multiplier effect on stock prices, I’d expect promoters to buy more shares.
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Not really . The reduction in last two years has been due to rights issue and QIP . Before that ,it was most likely because of margin call . The R&D expenses are front loaded and the share price which was 1600 in 2016 fell to 200 or so between 2016 and 2020 resulting in pledged shares being sold by the creditors . Wockhardt has never been known for good financial prudence and the promoters even lost a packet doing F&O sometime in the past and that is why the share price was dwindling . The new drugs getting close to commercialisation turned the tide and they managed to raise funds by rights and QIP 2023 onwards .They cant buy probably because they do not have any money to do so…they have reduced pledges but I think there is still some remaining . But this risk taking is what has enabled them to do what no other indian Pharma company has done till now .
Disc. Invested but have taken out twice the original invested amount .
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Thanks. Couple of follow up questions? Did the promoters participate in rights issue? QIP came late last year when this new drug was already on the anvil and stock was making waves in the market. At what price did QIP happen?