Seeking your feedback on what looks like a too good to be true opportunity in Wheels India.
Basics of the idea:
1). SEBI allows promoters to bring their shareholding within the regulatory limit of 75%, one was allotting rightsonlyto minority shareholders. Thus, in these issues, the promoters forego their rights entitlement and only the residual shareholders participate in such a way that post issue promoter shareholding is brought down to less than 75%. In the case of Wheels India, promoter (TVS group + Titan International) is at 91.44%. The promoters have thus chosen to use the rights to minority holders as the route to bring down their shareholding also presumably raising much needed funds for the company (to pay down existing debt) in the bargain.
2: Terms of the Issue
CMP 825 (A)
Current o/s Equity : 9869444 shares (B)
Fresh Issue : 2162835 shares ©
Diluted Equity = B+C = 12032279 shares (D)
Issue Price 400 (E)
Record Date for entitlement : February 14th 2014
Theoretical Ex-rights price is 749.
3). Returns and the risk
Assuming you are able to sell your 20 shares at the theoretical ex-rights price of Rs 749, you would book a loss upfront of Rs 1528 (825-749)*20 on your investment of Rs 16500.Subsequently, if you are able to sell these 51 shares at the same ex right price viz 749, you would make a profit of Rs 17799/- explained as [(749-400)*51]. Net of your loss of Rs 1528 booked earlier, you would still be left with a profit of Rs 16271/- leading to a theoretical return of roughly 98% on your investment of Rs 16500/-!!!
Risk is mainly from the not so good fundamentals of the company with mid-teens ROCEs, high debt on the books, lack of pricing power being primarily an OEM supplier and the general pangs of overall auto industry slowdown.
We have put out a detailed note on the post as well here:
Do you think there is a chance to manufacture luck here?
On PE basis the stock is very expensive. A trailing pe of 32 .even if we take into account the slump in auto ind, it is still quoting at high valuation. In last 10 years the profits have hardly grown. The fundamentals as you mentioned are weak. If we forget about rights issue and if we have to value the stock basis diluted equity Will we be willing to pay 400 rs for the stock. What will be its fair price. May be the stock is quoting high due to punters in anticipation of rights issue or may be the price will crash after rights issue
We are slightly wary of valuing this company on a PE basis. This is largely because it is a manufacturing business undergoing a cyclical downturn. While depreciation is on the entire asset base, capacity utilisations currently are at ~ 70% and thus earnings are depressed. Due to this reason a lot of cyclical manufacturing businesses tend to look expensive when looked at it in PE terms during downturns. Also presence of debt (475 cr in the case of Wheels India) sometimes tends to distort the PE picture. We tend to prefer EV/EBIDTA which is at ~ 8.5x at CMP. Business of course is not great but looked at on EV basis it is not super expensive while surely not cheap. Have attempted to answer this question in greater detail on the post. Am repasting the link here since it did not go through properly the first time
Entirely agree with you that the key risk is price correction after issue ex date but sense that there is some safety margin in built due to the special situation.
Can we say wrt to this deal that Shareholders getting almost 10% stake in Wheels India for 40cr and hence company valued at 400cr mkt cap and hence at half of current PE?
we should also calculate breakeven point: Price at which you we would make no loss - no profit
At price of 900, this turns out to be magic number of 555
That means if price falls below 555, then only you will be in loss