VP Productivity 2.0: Mental Models Template - Emerging Moats

Wonderful efforts Kim.

One important tenet is to use the phrase “All things being Equal” - identify those, and then look past them for that one or two attributes, that moves the needle the most. It might be different for different businesses/sectors, and there are some commonalities too.

All things being equal - implies that the business must pass minimum thresholds that we expect of an Emerging Business - one of the most important perhaps being Sustainable Growth - Numbers don’t always tell the full story. What are those minimum thresholds expected - a decent sustainable growth rate, a decent RoE, expansion in margins trend,growing Positive Operational Cash flows, (Free cash flow may not necessary to sport for a growing business that is likely to invest everything back in the business), near-zero debt position - a strong balance sheet, what else??

In Axtel case, if we go back and study the exemplary Axtel Deep Dive version Stock Story precursor produced by Divyansh, we will quickly realise that although medium term looks decent (mainly led by Mgmt commentary) nature of the business being EPC and tender based, sales is basically lumpy in nature, and will be difficult to sustain 2x Sales levels in lumpy project sales business, for a company of this size.

Folks interested in deeper understanding of key attributes that move the needle - will be well advised to go through important(old) threads like Business Value Drivers, Business Quality, Capital Allocation, and ART of Valuation threads - where repeatedly we have been referring to - all things being equal - in order to zero down on one or more key attributes.

Over to @deevee @Worldlywiseinvestors, and more seniors with generous hearts to spare your valuable time and help nurture newbies and young minds in this important quest.

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